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Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

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Softs Report 11/05/2025

By On November 5, 2025 - 11:27 AM · In Market Commentaries, Morning Grains & Softs Report
COTTON
General Comments:   Cotton was lower again yesterday as US trade deals struck with Asian countries made no specific mention of Cotton trade.  The lack of Cotton specific news helped push prices lower.  There are no more USDA reports coming due to the closure so no demand news is heard.  The US harvest is starting to finish in most areas and initial yield reports are positive.  There are still ideas that harvesting conditions are generally good.  There are still reports of good weather in Texas and into the southeast with variable temperatures and a few showers.  The monsoon in India is good and a good production there is possible.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends:  Trends in Cotton are mixed.  Support is at 63.70, 62.170, and 62.10 December, with resistance of 66.310, 67.00 and 67.80 December.
FCOJ
General Comments:  Futures were higher on ideas and could have formed a short term low.  The trends are turning up.  The US government remains shut down.  The weather is considered good for production here and in Brazil and Mexico.  Development conditions are good in Florida and in Brazil now with occasional showers in Florida and dry weather in Brazil.  The poor production potential for the crops comes from early dry weather but also the greening disease that has caused many Florida to lose trees.  Brazil production potential got hurt by cold and dry weather seen earlier in the year and dry weather now.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends:  Trends in FCOJ are down.  Support is at 170.00, 164.00, and 158.00 January, with resistance at 224.00, 237.00, and 247.00 January.
COFFEE
General Comments:  New York and London were mostly lower yesterday.  There are still reduced deliverable supplies for both exchanges, and the lack of deliverable stocks in both markets has supported the futures market.  Vietnam has seen too much rain.  Activity remained quiet in Vietnam on limited supplies as offers of fresh beans from the current harvest have yet to pick up.  U.S. and Brazilian officials held trade talks on Thursday that the two sides called positive and agreed to work to schedule a meeting between President Donald Trump and Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva soon.  A revision of the 50% U.S. tariff on Brazilian imports, including coffee, could push arabica prices lower.  A bill has been introduced in the Senate to cut Brazil tariffs but is apposed by the administration.
Overnight News: The ICO average price is 335.93 ct/lb.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed.  Support is at 371.00, 360.00, and 350.00 December, and resistance is at 418.00, 424.00 and 430.00 December.  Trends in London are mixed to up.  Support is at 4660, 4530, and 4370 January, with resistance at 4790, 4830, and 4850 January.
SUGAR
General Comments:  New York and London were lower again yesterday.  Trends are still down in both markets.  Ideas of good supplies for the market from good growing conditions for cane and beets around the world continue.  Production in Center-South Brazil has also been strong, but the south center harvest is almost over.  Too much rain has been reported in northern areas.  The outlook for cane crops in India and Thailand are in good condition with reports of good rains this year.  The prospect of a global surplus in the 2025/26 season was keeping the market on the defensive with a rise in production in India and Thailand set to increased supplies while global consumption is expected to remain steady.  India has just raised prices that mills must pay producers for Sugar, and Brazil prices are now below those for ethanol.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down.  Support is at 1400, 1370, and 1340 March and resistance is at 1520, 1540, and 1610 March.  Trends in London are mixed to down.  Support is at 405.00, 399.00, and 393.00 March, with resistance at 415.00, 429.00, and 437.00 March.
COCOA
General Comments:  New York and London closed s little higher yesterday and trends are mixed to up.  Demand concerns in West Africa continue.  Bigger supplies are expected at West Africa ports soon as Ivory Coast has raised the farmgate price paid to farmers and they are expected to sell.  Ghana has also raised farmgate prices.  There are still reports of increased production potential in other countries outside of West Africa, including Asia and Central America.  The market feels that there is less demand and the lack of demand is expected to continue.  Malaysia and the US have apparently agreed to allow Malaysian Cocoa into the US with 0 tariffs.  Cocoa arrivals in ports in top grower Ivory Coast were picking up after a slow start to the season. A total of about 90,000 tons were delivered between October 27 and November 2, up from 80,000 tons in the same week of the previous season.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends:  Trends in New York are up.  Support is at 6270, 6090, and 5890 December, with resistance at 6680, 6870, and 7140 December.  Trends in London are mixed.  Support is at 4200, 4010, and 3920 December, with resistance at 4870, 4970, and 5100 December.
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