Today is Halloween, also known at the spookiest of holiday. While my kids ages of 2, 4, and 6 don’t allow for too much spookiness in our house, I have been watching some spook these last couple weeks. That is coming from the markets and the managed money crowd. We don’t have any CFTC data to track the money flow from the trade, but with open interest data, news flow and price action we can see there is some of that money getting spooked out. First, we’ll start with the cattle longs that have had terror on their proverbialfaces as they head for the exits due to the recent headlines in the last couple weeks. The spec shorts in the soybean meal market has caused a $40+ rally in the last couple weeks. And over on the wheat, shorts have been covering from their deep net position recently.
Corn futures mustered some strength this week, joining in on the rest of the grain rally. December was up 8 ¼ cents on the week.Monday’s Export Inspections report showed 1.187 MMT of corn shipped in the week of 10/23, up 10.38% from last week and38.11% above the same week last year. Year to dateexports are57.83% larger from last year at 10.533 MMT. WeeklyEIA data is also being released, withethanol productionback down 21,000 barrels per day in the week ending on October 24 at 1.091 million barrels per day. Consumption slipped back, as stocks of ethanolstocks saw a build of 448,000 barrels at22.367million barrels.
Wheat saw some continued short covering in the winter wheats this week, as December MPLS spring wheat was down 4 cents. The Chicago December contract 21 ½ cents higher, with December KC HRW futures 23 cents in the green. Some shorts were covering, as open interest dropped on the rally. News continues to be light this week with the government shutdown. USDA offices were closed for the most part. We are still getting bits and pieces of ‘essential’ data. Export Inspections were at 258,453 MT, which was 12.26% below last year and a 47.61% drop from last week. In the first 5 months of the marketing year shipments are 19.4% above last year at 11.463 MMT.
Soybeans saw strength for much of the week with January up 55 cents, spurred by easing trade tensions and Chinese commitments. December soybean meal rallied another $27.50/ton (9.35%) on the week, as bean oil was 159 points (3.16 %) lower. In the middle of the week, the meeting between President Trump and China’s President Xi saw most of the Chinese tariffs expected to be lifted, with China also committing to buy 12 MMT of soybeans this year, and 25 MMT per in the next 3 years. Of the few USDA reports released this week, FGIS data showed soybean exports dropping 33.3% from the week prior to 1.061 MMT in the week of 10/23. That was still 59.7% below the same week last year as the lack of China as a destination is trimming back the seasonal pattern. Marketing year shipments are now 36.9% below last year at 6.715 MMT.
Live cattle started the week with sharp losses but things soon leveled off with December down $4.25. Cash trade slipped back this week, down $6-9 to $230-232 in the North and $235 in the South. Feeders were the leaders again, with contracts down $13.325. The visit by the Mexican ag minister with the US counter parts showed no progress in a date to reopen the border, seen as friendly by the midweek bounce. The CME Feeder Cattle Index was down $19.17 week/week to $347.25. Wholesale boxed beef prices saw some extended bounce back this week. Choice was $2.37/cwt higher (0.6%) this week to $378.13, as Select was up $0.65 (0.2%) at $358.85 as of Friday. Weekly cattle slaughter was estimated at 559,000 head by the USDA. That was a 14,000 head increase from last week and 56,990 head below the same week last year.
Hogs saw some more modest pressure this week, with December down another 62 cents this week and taking the 2 week total to $1.10. The CME Lean Hog Index was down $2.10 this week at $91.53 as of October 29. USDA’s Pork Carcass Cutout held the $100 level this week, down 79 cents this week to $101.95/cwt. The butt and ham primals were the only reported lower. Weekly hog slaughter totaled 2.584 million head this week according to USDA. That was 1,000 head below last week and 69,616 head shy of the same week in 2024.
Cotton futures rallied 134 points this week as the optimism was noted from the US/China situation. While nothing on cotton was mention from the Wednesday night meeting, tariffs are expected to be removed. With the lack of Export Sales Data, the market is trying to gauge demand, with thoughts China could begin buying. The weekly NASS Crop Progress report and AWP were not reported.
Market Watch
With the government shutdown still not concluded and going on its 5th week, things will likely be quiet again next week. Monday will again not see the release of the Crop Progress reports, though the Export Inspections will still be released. The monthly Grain Crushing, Fats & Oils, and Census data will not be reported for the second month in a row due to the shutdown. EIA data is expected out on Wednesday, per normal. The Export Sales report will likely be suspended due to the shutdown.
Tech Talk: January Soybeans
Jan beans had a nice run up over the last week. That took things to the Sep tember 2024 high at $11.14 ¾, which held on Thursday, but failed to hold as resistance on Friday. This week’s mive took things past the $11 round number, with the 50%Fib retracement off the LOC high to low at $11.20 ½. Stochastics are overbought and argue this run is overdone. MACD says you have bullish momentum. A high and rising ADX says to trust the latter. If we do get a correction, there is a chart gap from Monday at $10.63.
There is a risk of loss in futures and options trading. Similar risks exist for cash commodity producers. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Copyright 2025 Brugler Marketing & Management. All rights reserved.
Spooky Season. Ag Marketing Report 11/03/2025
Today is Halloween, also known at the spookiest of holiday. While my kids ages of 2, 4, and 6 don’t allow for too much spookiness in our house, I have been watching some spook these last couple weeks. That is coming from the markets and the managed money crowd. We don’t have any CFTC data to track the money flow from the trade, but with open interest data, news flow and price action we can see there is some of that money getting spooked out. First, we’ll start with the cattle longs that have had terror on their proverbial faces as they head for the exits due to the recent headlines in the last couple weeks. The spec shorts in the soybean meal market has caused a $40+ rally in the last couple weeks. And over on the wheat, shorts have been covering from their deep net position recently.
Corn futures mustered some strength this week, joining in on the rest of the grain rally. December was up 8 ¼ cents on the week. Monday’s Export Inspections report showed 1.187 MMT of corn shipped in the week of 10/23, up 10.38% from last week and 38.11% above the same week last year. Year to date exports are 57.83% larger from last year at 10.533 MMT. Weekly EIA data is also being released, with ethanol production back down 21,000 barrels per day in the week ending on October 24 at 1.091 million barrels per day. Consumption slipped back, as stocks of ethanol stocks saw a build of 448,000 barrels at 22.367 million barrels.
Wheat saw some continued short covering in the winter wheats this week, as December MPLS spring wheat was down 4 cents. The Chicago December contract 21 ½ cents higher, with December KC HRW futures 23 cents in the green. Some shorts were covering, as open interest dropped on the rally. News continues to be light this week with the government shutdown. USDA offices were closed for the most part. We are still getting bits and pieces of ‘essential’ data. Export Inspections were at 258,453 MT, which was 12.26% below last year and a 47.61% drop from last week. In the first 5 months of the marketing year shipments are 19.4% above last year at 11.463 MMT.
Soybeans saw strength for much of the week with January up 55 cents, spurred by easing trade tensions and Chinese commitments. December soybean meal rallied another $27.50/ton (9.35%) on the week, as bean oil was 159 points (3.16 %) lower. In the middle of the week, the meeting between President Trump and China’s President Xi saw most of the Chinese tariffs expected to be lifted, with China also committing to buy 12 MMT of soybeans this year, and 25 MMT per in the next 3 years. Of the few USDA reports released this week, FGIS data showed soybean exports dropping 33.3% from the week prior to 1.061 MMT in the week of 10/23. That was still 59.7% below the same week last year as the lack of China as a destination is trimming back the seasonal pattern. Marketing year shipments are now 36.9% below last year at 6.715 MMT.
Live cattle started the week with sharp losses but things soon leveled off with December down $4.25. Cash trade slipped back this week, down $6-9 to $230-232 in the North and $235 in the South. Feeders were the leaders again, with contracts down $13.325. The visit by the Mexican ag minister with the US counter parts showed no progress in a date to reopen the border, seen as friendly by the midweek bounce. The CME Feeder Cattle Index was down $19.17 week/week to $347.25. Wholesale boxed beef prices saw some extended bounce back this week. Choice was $2.37/cwt higher (0.6%) this week to $378.13, as Select was up $0.65 (0.2%) at $358.85 as of Friday. Weekly cattle slaughter was estimated at 559,000 head by the USDA. That was a 14,000 head increase from last week and 56,990 head below the same week last year.
Hogs saw some more modest pressure this week, with December down another 62 cents this week and taking the 2 week total to $1.10. The CME Lean Hog Index was down $2.10 this week at $91.53 as of October 29. USDA’s Pork Carcass Cutout held the $100 level this week, down 79 cents this week to $101.95/cwt. The butt and ham primals were the only reported lower. Weekly hog slaughter totaled 2.584 million head this week according to USDA. That was 1,000 head below last week and 69,616 head shy of the same week in 2024.
Cotton futures rallied 134 points this week as the optimism was noted from the US/China situation. While nothing on cotton was mention from the Wednesday night meeting, tariffs are expected to be removed. With the lack of Export Sales Data, the market is trying to gauge demand, with thoughts China could begin buying. The weekly NASS Crop Progress report and AWP were not reported.
Market Watch
With the government shutdown still not concluded and going on its 5th week, things will likely be quiet again next week. Monday will again not see the release of the Crop Progress reports, though the Export Inspections will still be released. The monthly Grain Crushing, Fats & Oils, and Census data will not be reported for the second month in a row due to the shutdown. EIA data is expected out on Wednesday, per normal. The Export Sales report will likely be suspended due to the shutdown.
Tech Talk: January Soybeans
Jan beans had a nice run up over the last week. That took things to the Sep tember 2024 high at $11.14 ¾, which held on Thursday, but failed to hold as resistance on Friday. This week’s mive took things past the $11 round number, with the 50%Fib retracement off the LOC high to low at $11.20 ½. Stochastics are overbought and argue this run is overdone. MACD says you have bullish momentum. A high and rising ADX says to trust the latter. If we do get a correction, there is a chart gap from Monday at $10.63.
There is a risk of loss in futures and options trading. Similar risks exist for cash commodity producers. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Copyright 2025 Brugler Marketing & Management. All rights reserved.