Ukraine keeps coming after that Russian Energy. The Energy Report 10/21/2025

Yet while some were fixed on diplomatic wrangling and the possibility of a ceasefire, dramatic events unfolded across Europe’s energy heartland. On Monday, October 20, reports that explosions struck two major oil refineries—one in Romania and another in Hungary – seems too convenient and suspicious to ignore. The first blast erupted at the Petrotel-Lukoil refinery in Ploieşti, Romania. It wasn’t a typical workday; the plant, one of the nation’s largest and under the ownership of Russia’s Lukoil, was already in the midst of a significant shutdown for maintenance. The explosion sent workers and investigators scrambling, with questions swirling about the cause amid ongoing repairs.

Later that same day, trouble echoed across the border in Hungary. At MOL’s Százhalombatta refinery, a fire broke out, drawing emergency crews who battled through the night. By Tuesday morning, the flames were finally contained, but investigators found themselves facing a mystery—the cause remained elusive, and the refinery, so vital for Hungary and the wider Central European market, was forced to suspend operations. This plant is responsible for processing Russian crude and supplying fuel to countries like Slovakia.  

While there is some indication of Ukraine’s involvement, nothing is confirmed. If a ceasefire is not reached, Ukraine may keep targeting Russian oil and related infrastructure. On October 19, 2025, the energy war cranked up another notch. Reports are pouring in that a wave of drone attacks hammered Russia’s Orenburg gas processing facility, shutting it down and slamming the brakes on Kazakh gas imports. That wasn’t all—over at the Novokuibyshevsk refinery, owned by Rosneft, another strike tore through the plant’s core operations, leaving a trail of destruction and knocking out the production of over 20 different petroleum products.

Zooming out, the hits just keep coming. From August through September, there were at least 30 confirmed strikes against Russian energy assets, most of them zeroing in on processing plants to deal maximum, long-term damage. Russia’s answer? Tighten the taps even further. Moscow has now extended its petrol export ban straight through the end of 2025. The fallout is real: fuel lines are snaking around gas stations in 33 regions, and countless service stations have had to close up shop altogether as supplies run dry according to reports.

There is ongoing discussion about floating storage and contango, especially during the shoulder season. What’s a contango, you ask? Call Phil Flynn 888-264-5665. A trade deal could boost oil demand and prices, particularly if concerns about China’s economy are addressed. Of course, sometimes when the market flips into contango it’s not necessarily a trend, it could be a bottom. Stay tuned!

You know I told everybody to download the Fox Weather app to keep an eye on the weather, especially if you’re trading natural gas and that would have been good advice with a change in the forecast to cold temperatures. Yeah, natural gas had a really big pop yesterday and now we have to keep an eye on a tropical disturbance that is in the Gulf of America. Also, Fox Weather is reporting that Invest 98L is continuing to become better organized, and forecasters with the National Hurricane Center (NHC) now say that Tropical Storm Melissa is likely to form Tuesday as the system slowly spins across the region.

According to the latest information from the NHC, satellite, radar and surface observations have indicated that Invest 98L is continuing to become better defined, with winds near 45 mph, but it is still lacking a well-defined center. However, environmental conditions are expected to become more favorable for development, and a tropical storm is likely to form Tuesday as the low-pressure system moves slowly over the central Caribbean. NOAA’s Hurricane Hunters are set to take off from Curaçao on Tuesday on a low-level investigation to get a better look at what is likely to become Tropical Storm Melissa. That mission is set to conclude later on Tuesday afternoon.

Download the Fox Weather ap to stay up to date. Stay tuned to the Fox Business Network! Invested in you! Call to get the wildly popular Phil Flynn Daily Trade Levels at 888-264-5665 or email pflynn@pricegroup.com.