Over the last couple weeks, there has been quite a bit of fodder for the market to digest, despite the lack of government data. Still, much of that has come from the government, mainly the head office of the executive branch. Between trade talks with China and whether we’re going to meet with them at the end of the month or not and if there will be tariffs and talk of lowering beef prices to some extent (though we still don’t know the method of doing so), there has been a lot of noise affecting the markets. While these statements from the President have merit and some substance, it seems the market over the long run has a good way of working itself out. Sometimes it’s best just to drown out the noise. A lot of times that’s where your technical analysis will come into play. However, there are times when the noise can be too deafening to ignore.
Corn futures finally saw a weekly gain this week, with December back up 9 ½ cents to take back 3 weeks of losses. USDA offices were closed for the most part, as the government shutdown continued. We are still getting bits and pieces of ‘essential’ data. The Export Inspections report showed 1.12 MMT of corn exported in the week of 10/9, down 33.6% from last week but well above the same week last year. Year to date exports are 64.97% larger from last year at 7.94 MMT. USDA is close, but CONAB was not with the Brazilian entity taking their total Brazilian corn crop number to 138.6 MMT for 2025/26. Weekly EIA data is still being released, with ethanol production reported up another 3,000 barrels per day in the week ending on October 10 at 1.074 million barrels per day. Stocks of ethanol saw another draw of 92,000 barrels at 22.63 million barrels.
The wheat complex saw some mixed action this week, as bears remained in control of the spring wheat market, with December MPLS wheat down 3 ¼ cents. The winter wheats were the strong point of the complex, as Chicago SRW futures were back up a slight 5 ¼ cents and December KC HRW futures 8 ½ cents higher. News was light this week with the government shutdown. Precip has been lacking in the Plains, allowing for planting to get wrapped up, though it may hinder emergence. Export Inspections were at 444,138 MT, which was 16.85% above last year but a drop from last week. In the first 4+ months of the marketing year shipments are 18.1% above last year at 10.665 MMT.
Soybeans saw some buying this week to take back the previous week’s losses, as November was up 12 ¾ cents. The trade talk this week focused on President Trump reaffirming the meeting with China’s Xi at the end of the months and walking back some of his previous statements. December soybean meal was up $6.00/ton (2.18%) on the week, as bean oil was 116 points (2.32%) higher. FGIS data showed soybean exports improving 26.9% from the week prior to 994,008 MT in the week of 10/9, which was still 49.9% below the same week last year. Marketing year shipments are now 26% below last year at 4.04 MMT. As for the other use category, NOPA released their monthly crush number on Wednesday, showing 197.86 mbu of soybeans crushed in September, well above the same period last year and 4.24% larger than in August. CONAB data tallied the Brazilian soybean crop at 177.64 MMT for 2025/26.
Live cattle were just slightly lower this week despite a run-up in the first half, with December closing the week 70 cents higher. The market was sent in a tizzy on Friday due to comments made by President Trump late on Thursday that he has a plan to lower beef prices. No plan was presented, though speculation was that it could be Argentina beef imports among other things. Cash trade still saw some gains this week, up $5-7 to $240-241 across the country. Feeders were the leaders on the Friday move, taking the November contracts weekly change to $4.20 lower. The CME Feeder Cattle Index was back up $8.59 week/week to $376.51. Wholesale boxed beef prices saw some continued recovery this week. Choice was $1.20/cwt higher (0.3%) this week to $366.77. Select was up $3.88 (1.1%) at $350.27 as of Friday. Weekly cattle slaughter was estimated at 567,000 head by the USDA. That was a 20,000 head increase from last week and 40,284 head below the same week last year.
Hogs saw some continued pressure this week, as some long liquidation was extended with open interest dropping and December down another $1.65 this week. The CME Lean Hog Index was down $3.47 this week at $96.59 as of October 15. USDA’s Pork Carcass Cutout was down another $1.72 (1.6%) this week to $102.70/cwt, though prices did bounce from the midweek low. The loin and belly primals were the only reported higher, with the rib down $7.81 and butt $7.43 lower as smoker season winds down. Weekly hog slaughter totaled 2.588 million head this week according to USDA. That was 11,000 head above last week and 17,573 head shy of the same week in 2024.
Cotton futures saw a modest recovery this week, with December back up 44 points since last Friday. With the lack of Export Sales Data, the market is trying to gauge demand, though it is likely not from China. During the week President Trump tried to calm the tensions that were ramped up with China last week, saying that thing would be fine. Easing tensions helped to lift futures later in the week. The weekly NASS Crop Progress report and AWP were not reported.
Market Watch
With the government shutdown continuing still not ended in its third week, things will likely be quiet again next week. Monday would normally see the Crop Progress reports, though the Export Inspections will still be released. EIA data is expected out on Wednesday, per normal. The Export Sales report will likely be suspended due to the shutdown. Friday would normally be the Cattle on Feed and Cold Storage reports, though they are doubtful due to the shutdown. November grain and oilseed options expire on Friday.
Tech Talk: November Soybeans
November soybeans have been in a fairly cyclical pattern over the last several months. What appears to be a ~9-day cycle would call for a potential high next week. The previous cycle low was near $10 at $10.01. That held, and formed another trendline, with support at $10.04 ½. June, there have been several trendline forming, with the current resistance at $10.21 ½, matching Friday’s high. Pushing past that would signal a test of the 200-day moving average ($10.29), which stopped thing last time, as well as the 50% Fib retracement at $10.28 ¼. The 61.8% is $10.36 ¼. Back to the trendlines, there is apparently a coiling formation, all pointing likely to the end of the month, which coincides with the meeting with Trump and Xi. The breakout (in either direction) could be associated with if China buys any beans or not. For that, we’ll have to wait and see. Still, Stochastics look to be crossing in low neutral, with very little trend to speak of.
There is a risk of loss in futures and options trading. Similar risks exist for cash commodity producers. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Copyright 2025 Brugler Marketing & Management. All rights reserved.
Drown Out the Noise. Ag Marketing Report 10/20/2025
Over the last couple weeks, there has been quite a bit of fodder for the market to digest, despite the lack of government data. Still, much of that has come from the government, mainly the head office of the executive branch. Between trade talks with China and whether we’re going to meet with them at the end of the month or not and if there will be tariffs and talk of lowering beef prices to some extent (though we still don’t know the method of doing so), there has been a lot of noise affecting the markets. While these statements from the President have merit and some substance, it seems the market over the long run has a good way of working itself out. Sometimes it’s best just to drown out the noise. A lot of times that’s where your technical analysis will come into play. However, there are times when the noise can be too deafening to ignore.
Corn futures finally saw a weekly gain this week, with December back up 9 ½ cents to take back 3 weeks of losses. USDA offices were closed for the most part, as the government shutdown continued. We are still getting bits and pieces of ‘essential’ data. The Export Inspections report showed 1.12 MMT of corn exported in the week of 10/9, down 33.6% from last week but well above the same week last year. Year to date exports are 64.97% larger from last year at 7.94 MMT. USDA is close, but CONAB was not with the Brazilian entity taking their total Brazilian corn crop number to 138.6 MMT for 2025/26. Weekly EIA data is still being released, with ethanol production reported up another 3,000 barrels per day in the week ending on October 10 at 1.074 million barrels per day. Stocks of ethanol saw another draw of 92,000 barrels at 22.63 million barrels.
The wheat complex saw some mixed action this week, as bears remained in control of the spring wheat market, with December MPLS wheat down 3 ¼ cents. The winter wheats were the strong point of the complex, as Chicago SRW futures were back up a slight 5 ¼ cents and December KC HRW futures 8 ½ cents higher. News was light this week with the government shutdown. Precip has been lacking in the Plains, allowing for planting to get wrapped up, though it may hinder emergence. Export Inspections were at 444,138 MT, which was 16.85% above last year but a drop from last week. In the first 4+ months of the marketing year shipments are 18.1% above last year at 10.665 MMT.
Soybeans saw some buying this week to take back the previous week’s losses, as November was up 12 ¾ cents. The trade talk this week focused on President Trump reaffirming the meeting with China’s Xi at the end of the months and walking back some of his previous statements. December soybean meal was up $6.00/ton (2.18%) on the week, as bean oil was 116 points (2.32%) higher. FGIS data showed soybean exports improving 26.9% from the week prior to 994,008 MT in the week of 10/9, which was still 49.9% below the same week last year. Marketing year shipments are now 26% below last year at 4.04 MMT. As for the other use category, NOPA released their monthly crush number on Wednesday, showing 197.86 mbu of soybeans crushed in September, well above the same period last year and 4.24% larger than in August. CONAB data tallied the Brazilian soybean crop at 177.64 MMT for 2025/26.
Live cattle were just slightly lower this week despite a run-up in the first half, with December closing the week 70 cents higher. The market was sent in a tizzy on Friday due to comments made by President Trump late on Thursday that he has a plan to lower beef prices. No plan was presented, though speculation was that it could be Argentina beef imports among other things. Cash trade still saw some gains this week, up $5-7 to $240-241 across the country. Feeders were the leaders on the Friday move, taking the November contracts weekly change to $4.20 lower. The CME Feeder Cattle Index was back up $8.59 week/week to $376.51. Wholesale boxed beef prices saw some continued recovery this week. Choice was $1.20/cwt higher (0.3%) this week to $366.77. Select was up $3.88 (1.1%) at $350.27 as of Friday. Weekly cattle slaughter was estimated at 567,000 head by the USDA. That was a 20,000 head increase from last week and 40,284 head below the same week last year.
Hogs saw some continued pressure this week, as some long liquidation was extended with open interest dropping and December down another $1.65 this week. The CME Lean Hog Index was down $3.47 this week at $96.59 as of October 15. USDA’s Pork Carcass Cutout was down another $1.72 (1.6%) this week to $102.70/cwt, though prices did bounce from the midweek low. The loin and belly primals were the only reported higher, with the rib down $7.81 and butt $7.43 lower as smoker season winds down. Weekly hog slaughter totaled 2.588 million head this week according to USDA. That was 11,000 head above last week and 17,573 head shy of the same week in 2024.
Cotton futures saw a modest recovery this week, with December back up 44 points since last Friday. With the lack of Export Sales Data, the market is trying to gauge demand, though it is likely not from China. During the week President Trump tried to calm the tensions that were ramped up with China last week, saying that thing would be fine. Easing tensions helped to lift futures later in the week. The weekly NASS Crop Progress report and AWP were not reported.
Market Watch
With the government shutdown continuing still not ended in its third week, things will likely be quiet again next week. Monday would normally see the Crop Progress reports, though the Export Inspections will still be released. EIA data is expected out on Wednesday, per normal. The Export Sales report will likely be suspended due to the shutdown. Friday would normally be the Cattle on Feed and Cold Storage reports, though they are doubtful due to the shutdown. November grain and oilseed options expire on Friday.
Tech Talk: November Soybeans
November soybeans have been in a fairly cyclical pattern over the last several months. What appears to be a ~9-day cycle would call for a potential high next week. The previous cycle low was near $10 at $10.01. That held, and formed another trendline, with support at $10.04 ½. June, there have been several trendline forming, with the current resistance at $10.21 ½, matching Friday’s high. Pushing past that would signal a test of the 200-day moving average ($10.29), which stopped thing last time, as well as the 50% Fib retracement at $10.28 ¼. The 61.8% is $10.36 ¼. Back to the trendlines, there is apparently a coiling formation, all pointing likely to the end of the month, which coincides with the meeting with Trump and Xi. The breakout (in either direction) could be associated with if China buys any beans or not. For that, we’ll have to wait and see. Still, Stochastics look to be crossing in low neutral, with very little trend to speak of.
There is a risk of loss in futures and options trading. Similar risks exist for cash commodity producers. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Copyright 2025 Brugler Marketing & Management. All rights reserved.