Dan Flynn is the writer of The Corn & Ethanol Report, a daily market letter covering grains, energies, and various global issues that are the driving force and backbone of the commodity markets. Contact Mr. Flynn at (312) 264-4374
We kickoff the day with Building Permits Prel, Building Permits MoM Prel, Housing Starts, Housing Starts MoM, Export Sales, Export Prices MoM & YoY, and Import Prices MoM & YoY at 7:30 A.M., Capacity Utilization and Industrial Production at 8:15 A.M., Fed Musalem Speech at 11:15 A.M., Baker Hughes Oil & Total Rig Counts at 12:00 P.M., Net Long-term TIC Flows, Foreign Bond Investment, and Overal Net Capital Flows at 3:00 P.M.
The National Association of Home Builder’s monthly survey showed a surge in homeowner optimism in October. The NAHB’s Housing Market Index jump 16% in October to a 6-month high of 37. The bounce occurred after the index had fallen to a 34-month low in August and September, when the index was the lowest since December 2022. The October increase was primarily driven by a further decline in mortgage rates and improved sale expectations. Home builders reported improved foot traffic from prospective buyers and improved sales rates in October. However, 38% of home builders reported cutting prices in October, with the average price reduction increasing to6%, after holding at 5% for months.
Central US Weather Pattern Update
Midwest/Delta Trend Wetter; NOAA Projects Easing of Midwest Drought into mid-Winter:
The Central US forecast is wetter in IL, IN, and OH into Sunday, with totals upward of 2-3” advertised across the driest areas of southern IL & IN. There’s hope that water levels stabilize across southern portions of the Mississippi River, and otherwise any/all moisture is welcomed. Only lite/scattered showers are projected west of the Mississippi River into Oct 26th. Harvests continue to move speedily ahead. NOAA’s newly released Nov-Jan climate forecasts lack insight in the Plains and Midwest, while relative warmth/dryness is forecast into mid-winter across the Delta & Southeast. An easing/elimination of drought is offered to IL, In, and OH.An expansion of dryness is projected across the southern US. Drought/abnormal dryness stays absent from the US HRW Belt.
Corn Comments & Analysis
CBOT Corn Back to 100-Day Moving Average; Upside Limited Without Adverse South American Weather:
Dec CBOT corn is up $.13 from last Friday’s low, and short-term chart indications are neutral. However, a close above $4.25 is needed to attract follow-through buying. ARC’s big-picture concern remains centered on oversupply. Ongoing yield uncertainty is acknowledged, but amis USDA’s overstated feed and industrial consumption forecasts, a final yield below 177 BPA is required to drop projected end stocks below 2.0 Bil. We caution strongly against chasing daily moves. The South American weather from November to January is the market’s next catalyst. The Argy corn crop is 30% planted, compared to the 26% average in mid-Oct. Argentine weather stays favorable into late month, and barring drought in Dec-Jan, some 10-12 MMT’s of Argentine supply will be available in March. It’s just tough to forecast even short-term global fedd market supply tightness. This is needed to spark lasting bull trends. ARC sees March CBOT as overvalued above $4.45 and Dec ’26 overvalued above $4.70. Add to hedges at these levels.
Have A Great Trading Day!
Contact me directly with any questions or open a trading account at 1-888-264-5665 or dflynn@pricegroup.com.
Nov-Jan SA Become New Market Driver. The Corn & Ethanol Report 10/17/2025
We kickoff the day with Building Permits Prel, Building Permits MoM Prel, Housing Starts, Housing Starts MoM, Export Sales, Export Prices MoM & YoY, and Import Prices MoM & YoY at 7:30 A.M., Capacity Utilization and Industrial Production at 8:15 A.M., Fed Musalem Speech at 11:15 A.M., Baker Hughes Oil & Total Rig Counts at 12:00 P.M., Net Long-term TIC Flows, Foreign Bond Investment, and Overal Net Capital Flows at 3:00 P.M.
The National Association of Home Builder’s monthly survey showed a surge in homeowner optimism in October. The NAHB’s Housing Market Index jump 16% in October to a 6-month high of 37. The bounce occurred after the index had fallen to a 34-month low in August and September, when the index was the lowest since December 2022. The October increase was primarily driven by a further decline in mortgage rates and improved sale expectations. Home builders reported improved foot traffic from prospective buyers and improved sales rates in October. However, 38% of home builders reported cutting prices in October, with the average price reduction increasing to6%, after holding at 5% for months.
Central US Weather Pattern Update
Midwest/Delta Trend Wetter; NOAA Projects Easing of Midwest Drought into mid-Winter:
The Central US forecast is wetter in IL, IN, and OH into Sunday, with totals upward of 2-3” advertised across the driest areas of southern IL & IN. There’s hope that water levels stabilize across southern portions of the Mississippi River, and otherwise any/all moisture is welcomed. Only lite/scattered showers are projected west of the Mississippi River into Oct 26th. Harvests continue to move speedily ahead. NOAA’s newly released Nov-Jan climate forecasts lack insight in the Plains and Midwest, while relative warmth/dryness is forecast into mid-winter across the Delta & Southeast. An easing/elimination of drought is offered to IL, In, and OH.An expansion of dryness is projected across the southern US. Drought/abnormal dryness stays absent from the US HRW Belt.
Corn Comments & Analysis
CBOT Corn Back to 100-Day Moving Average; Upside Limited Without Adverse South American Weather:
Dec CBOT corn is up $.13 from last Friday’s low, and short-term chart indications are neutral. However, a close above $4.25 is needed to attract follow-through buying. ARC’s big-picture concern remains centered on oversupply. Ongoing yield uncertainty is acknowledged, but amis USDA’s overstated feed and industrial consumption forecasts, a final yield below 177 BPA is required to drop projected end stocks below 2.0 Bil. We caution strongly against chasing daily moves. The South American weather from November to January is the market’s next catalyst. The Argy corn crop is 30% planted, compared to the 26% average in mid-Oct. Argentine weather stays favorable into late month, and barring drought in Dec-Jan, some 10-12 MMT’s of Argentine supply will be available in March. It’s just tough to forecast even short-term global fedd market supply tightness. This is needed to spark lasting bull trends. ARC sees March CBOT as overvalued above $4.45 and Dec ’26 overvalued above $4.70. Add to hedges at these levels.
Have A Great Trading Day!
Contact me directly with any questions or open a trading account at 1-888-264-5665 or dflynn@pricegroup.com.
Thanks,
Dan Flynn
Questions? Ask Dan Flynn today at 312-264-4374