Dan Flynn is the writer of The Corn & Ethanol Report, a daily market letter covering grains, energies, and various global issues that are the driving force and backbone of the commodity markets. Contact Mr. Flynn at (312) 264-4374
We kickoff the day with Fed Goolsbee Speech at 8:45 A.M., Michigan Consumer Sentiment Prel, Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations Prel, Michigan Consumer Expectations Prel, Michigan Current Conditions Prel, and Michigan Inflation Expectations Prel at 9:00 A.M., Fed Musalem Speech and Baker Hughes Oil & Total Rigs Count at 12:00 P.M., and Monthly Budget Statement at 1:00 P.M.
Nearby gold futures corrected on Thursday after reaching a record high of $4,081/oz on Wednesday marking $1,000/oz increase in just 7 months. The rise in gold reflects the decline in purchasing power of the US dollar, and occurs as US grain prices remain depressed. The corn/gold ratio, or the number of bushels of corn needed to buy 1 oz of gold. The ratio reached a record high during the summer of the pandemic of 621:1, but fell sharply the following year as gold corrected 10% or $196/oz, while corn rallied $4.24 or 134%. The ratio this week has reached 947.1. In other words, a semi-load of corn is not enough to buy a single ounce of gold. The ratio has little predictive value for either commodity. But it does highlight how cheap corn has become against other real assets.
Global Major Crop Demand in Short
ARC continues its dive into big-picture market themes. Record global crop yield and the likelihood that South America avoids major weather issues was highlighted Wednesday. This piece focuses on what’s been a slowing demand growth since 2019/20 – which underscores the need to be active in forward hedging on price recoveries. Amid better-than-expected yields in Canada and ongoing near-perfect weather in Argentina. Demand reality is the dynamic as the current data has the Bears growling and the Bulls running in the wrong direction. Upcoming US/China trade talks have supported prices at this point.
Central US Weather Pattern Update
Extreme Drought Now in Place in IL, IN, and OH; Drought Absent from HRW Belt:
The central US forecast is broadly consistent with prior runs. There are hints of better rain chances across the Dakotas, IA, and Upper Great Lakes after Oct 24th, but widespread soaking precipitation is not indicated into late month. Row crop yields are largely made, but there is a significant need for water from late autumn to spring in MO and east of the Mississippi River. This week’s drought monitor featured more intensification of dryness in IL, In, and OH. Mississippi River levels are set to erode – and cross low levels Memphis Southward by Oct 12th. However, odds are high initial winter wheat ratings will be at or above average. Drought is absent from the Southern Plains, with positive moisture anomalies still in place across KS and the TX/OK panhandles. Drought has been eased in TN & KY and far southern IN in the last 30 days. Corn and soybean harvests move speedily and likely to reach completion by early November.
CBOT corn had a heavier feel Thursday following China’s tightening of rare earth & product exports, which keeps US-Chinese battle over tech (AI) in place, and the pace of harvesting will be uninterrupted into late October. The US market need constant strong export demand to justify USDA’s annual forecast. ARC maintains that domestic disappearance will be challenged by cheap alternative grains and weak cow numbers. The absence of weekly sales data is noticeable. Otherwise, ARC’s long-term outlook remains centered on abundant global corn/feed supplies, even assuming a final US yield of 182-184. The Argentine crop this week is 26% planted, vs. 19% a year ago, which implies large Argentine supplies will be available in early March. ARC Brazil estimate that Mat Grosso soybean seeding will reach 38-40% complete this week, which opens the possibility of safrinha corn seeding in the second half of January. South American drought is needed to alter the prevailing range of $3.95-$4.30, basis spot Chicago.
Have A Great Trading Day!
Contact me directly with ny questions or open a trading account 1-888-264-5665 or dflynn@pricegroup.com.
Opposite Seasons Harvest Winding Down as South America Gears Up;US/China Ag-Rare Earth Talks Loom. The Corn & Ethanol Report 10/10/2025
We kickoff the day with Fed Goolsbee Speech at 8:45 A.M., Michigan Consumer Sentiment Prel, Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations Prel, Michigan Consumer Expectations Prel, Michigan Current Conditions Prel, and Michigan Inflation Expectations Prel at 9:00 A.M., Fed Musalem Speech and Baker Hughes Oil & Total Rigs Count at 12:00 P.M., and Monthly Budget Statement at 1:00 P.M.
Nearby gold futures corrected on Thursday after reaching a record high of $4,081/oz on Wednesday marking $1,000/oz increase in just 7 months. The rise in gold reflects the decline in purchasing power of the US dollar, and occurs as US grain prices remain depressed. The corn/gold ratio, or the number of bushels of corn needed to buy 1 oz of gold. The ratio reached a record high during the summer of the pandemic of 621:1, but fell sharply the following year as gold corrected 10% or $196/oz, while corn rallied $4.24 or 134%. The ratio this week has reached 947.1. In other words, a semi-load of corn is not enough to buy a single ounce of gold. The ratio has little predictive value for either commodity. But it does highlight how cheap corn has become against other real assets.
Global Major Crop Demand in Short
ARC continues its dive into big-picture market themes. Record global crop yield and the likelihood that South America avoids major weather issues was highlighted Wednesday. This piece focuses on what’s been a slowing demand growth since 2019/20 – which underscores the need to be active in forward hedging on price recoveries. Amid better-than-expected yields in Canada and ongoing near-perfect weather in Argentina. Demand reality is the dynamic as the current data has the Bears growling and the Bulls running in the wrong direction. Upcoming US/China trade talks have supported prices at this point.
Central US Weather Pattern Update
Extreme Drought Now in Place in IL, IN, and OH; Drought Absent from HRW Belt:
The central US forecast is broadly consistent with prior runs. There are hints of better rain chances across the Dakotas, IA, and Upper Great Lakes after Oct 24th, but widespread soaking precipitation is not indicated into late month. Row crop yields are largely made, but there is a significant need for water from late autumn to spring in MO and east of the Mississippi River. This week’s drought monitor featured more intensification of dryness in IL, In, and OH. Mississippi River levels are set to erode – and cross low levels Memphis Southward by Oct 12th. However, odds are high initial winter wheat ratings will be at or above average. Drought is absent from the Southern Plains, with positive moisture anomalies still in place across KS and the TX/OK panhandles. Drought has been eased in TN & KY and far southern IN in the last 30 days. Corn and soybean harvests move speedily and likely to reach completion by early November.
Corn Comments & Analysis
CBOT Corn Corrects; Moving Averages Hold; Argentine Planting Continues Unabated:
CBOT corn had a heavier feel Thursday following China’s tightening of rare earth & product exports, which keeps US-Chinese battle over tech (AI) in place, and the pace of harvesting will be uninterrupted into late October. The US market need constant strong export demand to justify USDA’s annual forecast. ARC maintains that domestic disappearance will be challenged by cheap alternative grains and weak cow numbers. The absence of weekly sales data is noticeable. Otherwise, ARC’s long-term outlook remains centered on abundant global corn/feed supplies, even assuming a final US yield of 182-184. The Argentine crop this week is 26% planted, vs. 19% a year ago, which implies large Argentine supplies will be available in early March. ARC Brazil estimate that Mat Grosso soybean seeding will reach 38-40% complete this week, which opens the possibility of safrinha corn seeding in the second half of January. South American drought is needed to alter the prevailing range of $3.95-$4.30, basis spot Chicago.
Have A Great Trading Day!
Contact me directly with ny questions or open a trading account 1-888-264-5665 or dflynn@pricegroup.com.
Thanks,
Dan Flynn
Questions? Ask Dan Flynn today at 312-264-4374