Dan Flynn is the writer of The Corn & Ethanol Report, a daily market letter covering grains, energies, and various global issues that are the driving force and backbone of the commodity markets. Contact Mr. Flynn at (312) 264-4374
We kickoff the day with MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate, MBA Mortgage Applications, MBA Mortgage Market Index, MBA Mortgage Refinance Index , and MBA Purchase Index at 6:00 A.M., Fed Musalem Speech at 8:20 A.M., Fed Barr Speech at 8:30 A.M., EIA Energy Stocks at 9:30 A.M., 17-Week Bill Auction at 10:30 A.M., 10-Year Note Auction at 12;00 P.M., FOMC Minutes at 1:00 P.M., Dairy Products Sales at 2:00 P.M., Fed Kashkari Speech at 2:15 P.M., and Fed Barr Speech at 4:45 P.M.
The Manheim Used Vehicle Index for September showed that wholesale used vehicle prices at dealer auctions were down by an average of 0.2% from August but were 2% higher than a year ago. Electric vehicles continue to outperform, showing a 6.4% increase over last year and a o.8% gain on August. Non-EV car values rose by 1% over a year ago and were down slightly from last year. The average EV premium to non-EV rose to $8,477, an 18% increase from a year ago and the highest since March 2024. SUV’s and luxury vehicles saw modest gains over a year ago, while compact cars were down 6.5% from 2024. Retail used vehicles sales were estimated to have declined by 3.9% in August, while the average listing price increased by 1.5%.
Central US Weather Pattern Update
Rain Works Across KY, E Midwest Tuesday; Harvest Disruptions Absent Next 7 Days:
Rain is falling as expected across KY and parts of IN/OH. This adds moisture available for SRW germination/growth, and otherwise the US pattern stays unchanged into the latter part of October. Tropical storms & hurricanes stay away from the US Gulf through the period, and meaningful rain into Oct 20th will favor the far N Plains and Upper Great Lakes. Harvest will move smoothly nearby, and both corn and soybean harvests are expected to reach 50% complete in the next 10 days. Otherwise, there is a need for rainfall from now till spring to replenish moisture reserves in MO and east of the Mississippi River. Snow water equivalents of 3-4” are desired. Positive moisture anomalies are in place across a majority of HRW producing areas. The odds of an October Crop Report have quickly diminished in the last week, but nevertheless, traders understand there is a strong tendency for NASS to raise the yield estimate in October. Since 1974, the October yield estimate has been unchanged or higher in 28 years (64%) and declined 19 years (43%). In 2013, there was no October crop report. The largest yield change was in 2004 when NAS raised the yield by 3.5 BPA in October, and the average change across all years is 0.8 BPA. There is an even stronger tendency for NASS to underestimate the soybean yield in October. January yield has been larger than the October yield in 32 years by an average of 0.9% BPA. In 18 years, the January yield estimate was lower by an average of 0.8 BPA, and in 1 year (1986), the January yield estimate was the same as October. In the last 6 years, the January yield estimate has been too high in 3 years and too low in 3. Ag Resources (ARC) thinks there is room for a slight yield reduction but the outlook still calls for a record US soybean yield.
Corn Comments & Analysis
CBOT Corn Recovery Fails at Major Moving Averages; Brazilian Cash Market Struggles to Rally:
Dec CBOT corn remains bound to a range of $4.15-$4.30 and new input is sought. ARC maintains a strategy of catching up on hedges above $4.25, Dec, and 44.45, March. It’s the last 30% of harvest when storage capacity is stressed and finding some 16.3 Bil Bu, of demand will be challenging. Keep in mind low priced sorghum will displace corn in feed rations and at ethanol plants. The season evolution of Brazil’s daily cash corn index shows the market recovered normally from lows scored in July, but the lack of movement in recent weeks has left cash corn in Brazil unchanged year-over-year – the entire world market is adrift in at current prices – and Brazilian exports will exceed year-ago levels by 1-2 MMT’s on a monthly basis into winter. ARC sees spot CBOT corn as stuck between $3.90-$4.30 until South American yields can be assessed in Dec/Jan. Favorable Argentine weather opens downside potential thereafter.
Have A Great Trading Day!
Contact me directly with any questions or open a trading account at 1-888-264-5665 or dflynn@pricegroup.com.
Early Harvest Echo National Yield Projections. The Corn & Ethanol Report 10/08/2025
We kickoff the day with MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate, MBA Mortgage Applications, MBA Mortgage Market Index, MBA Mortgage Refinance Index , and MBA Purchase Index at 6:00 A.M., Fed Musalem Speech at 8:20 A.M., Fed Barr Speech at 8:30 A.M., EIA Energy Stocks at 9:30 A.M., 17-Week Bill Auction at 10:30 A.M., 10-Year Note Auction at 12;00 P.M., FOMC Minutes at 1:00 P.M., Dairy Products Sales at 2:00 P.M., Fed Kashkari Speech at 2:15 P.M., and Fed Barr Speech at 4:45 P.M.
The Manheim Used Vehicle Index for September showed that wholesale used vehicle prices at dealer auctions were down by an average of 0.2% from August but were 2% higher than a year ago. Electric vehicles continue to outperform, showing a 6.4% increase over last year and a o.8% gain on August. Non-EV car values rose by 1% over a year ago and were down slightly from last year. The average EV premium to non-EV rose to $8,477, an 18% increase from a year ago and the highest since March 2024. SUV’s and luxury vehicles saw modest gains over a year ago, while compact cars were down 6.5% from 2024. Retail used vehicles sales were estimated to have declined by 3.9% in August, while the average listing price increased by 1.5%.
Central US Weather Pattern Update
Rain Works Across KY, E Midwest Tuesday; Harvest Disruptions Absent Next 7 Days:
Rain is falling as expected across KY and parts of IN/OH. This adds moisture available for SRW germination/growth, and otherwise the US pattern stays unchanged into the latter part of October. Tropical storms & hurricanes stay away from the US Gulf through the period, and meaningful rain into Oct 20th will favor the far N Plains and Upper Great Lakes. Harvest will move smoothly nearby, and both corn and soybean harvests are expected to reach 50% complete in the next 10 days. Otherwise, there is a need for rainfall from now till spring to replenish moisture reserves in MO and east of the Mississippi River. Snow water equivalents of 3-4” are desired. Positive moisture anomalies are in place across a majority of HRW producing areas. The odds of an October Crop Report have quickly diminished in the last week, but nevertheless, traders understand there is a strong tendency for NASS to raise the yield estimate in October. Since 1974, the October yield estimate has been unchanged or higher in 28 years (64%) and declined 19 years (43%). In 2013, there was no October crop report. The largest yield change was in 2004 when NAS raised the yield by 3.5 BPA in October, and the average change across all years is 0.8 BPA. There is an even stronger tendency for NASS to underestimate the soybean yield in October. January yield has been larger than the October yield in 32 years by an average of 0.9% BPA. In 18 years, the January yield estimate was lower by an average of 0.8 BPA, and in 1 year (1986), the January yield estimate was the same as October. In the last 6 years, the January yield estimate has been too high in 3 years and too low in 3. Ag Resources (ARC) thinks there is room for a slight yield reduction but the outlook still calls for a record US soybean yield.
Corn Comments & Analysis
CBOT Corn Recovery Fails at Major Moving Averages; Brazilian Cash Market Struggles to Rally:
Dec CBOT corn remains bound to a range of $4.15-$4.30 and new input is sought. ARC maintains a strategy of catching up on hedges above $4.25, Dec, and 44.45, March. It’s the last 30% of harvest when storage capacity is stressed and finding some 16.3 Bil Bu, of demand will be challenging. Keep in mind low priced sorghum will displace corn in feed rations and at ethanol plants. The season evolution of Brazil’s daily cash corn index shows the market recovered normally from lows scored in July, but the lack of movement in recent weeks has left cash corn in Brazil unchanged year-over-year – the entire world market is adrift in at current prices – and Brazilian exports will exceed year-ago levels by 1-2 MMT’s on a monthly basis into winter. ARC sees spot CBOT corn as stuck between $3.90-$4.30 until South American yields can be assessed in Dec/Jan. Favorable Argentine weather opens downside potential thereafter.
Have A Great Trading Day!
Contact me directly with any questions or open a trading account at 1-888-264-5665 or dflynn@pricegroup.com.
Thanks,
Dan Flynn
Questions? Ask Dan Flynn today at 312-264-4374