This week’s column doesn’t have as much substance as it normally does due to the fact that we haven’t had any normal non-mandatory government data since Tuesday. We lacked the monthly demand and weekly Export Sales reports from USDA nor the CFTC data all due to the government shutdown. Still despite the lack of data, the market doesn’t stop trading. Most of the stuff is already factored in anyway, as we saw on the lack of much extreme selling on Tuesday following an additional 200 mbu of corn out there. Much like we failed to sell the additional corn acres in previous reports. Still, much like the harvest has run rather uninterrupted for the most part, this column will be a little shorter. Though for the bulls, this last week’s price action lack much in terms of sweetness.
Corn continued the pullback this week, despite a Wednesday/Thursday rally that tried to take losses back. December was still 3 cents lower from last Friday. Grain Stocks data tallied September 1 corn stock at 1.532 bbu, down 231 mbu from last year, but a 207 mbu above the September WASDE ending stocks estimates. Monday’s Crop Progress report indicated a total of 95% of the US corn crop dented as of September 21, with 71% mature. Harvest was 18% complete by last Sunday. Conditions were steady on the week at 66% good/excellent, with the Brugler500 index unchanged at 370. Weekly EIA data from Wednesday showed ethanol production falling another 29,000 barrels per day in the week ending on September 26 at 995,000 barrels per day. Stocks of ethanol saw a draw of 704,000 barrels to 22.764 million barrels.
The wheat complex was under pressure for much of the week, as we found some more bushels early in the week. MPLS was down 8 cents (-1.41%) this week. Chicago SRW futures were 4 ½ cents in the red on the week, with the December KC HRW contract showing an 8 ½ cent loss. Crop Progress data showed the US winter wheat crop at 34% planted, 2 points behind normal, as emergence was 13%. USDA’s Small Grains Summary from this week showed all wheat production at 1.984 bbu, 57 mbu above the August Crop Production report number. Winter wheat production was shown at 1.402 bbu, 50 mbu larger than expected, with HRW at 804 mbu, SRW at 353 mbu, and white winter at 244 mbu. Spring wheat production was pegged at 497 mbu, with durum at 86 mbu. Grain Stocks data showed wheat stocks at 2.12 bbu on September 1. That was 128 mbu larger than the same date in 2024.
Soybeans got a bounce this week, mainly in the last half, up 4 ¼ cents from last Friday. Soybeans found some support this week from a President Trump post that soybeans will be a heavy topic of conversation in the meeting between he and China’s President Xi later this month. December soybean meal was the supportive side of the products, up $4.00/ton (1.46%) on the week, as bean oil was 14 points (0.33%) lower. NASS showed a total of 316 mbu of soybeans on hand as of September 1 in the qurterly Grain Stocks report. That was a 14 mbu lower compared to the WASDE ending stocks estimate from earlier this month and a 26 mbu reduction from last year. The weekly Crop Progress report tallied 79% of the US soybean crop dropping leaves by 9/28, with harvest now 19% complete. Crop condition ratings were back up 1% to 62% good/excellent this week, with the Brugler500 index 3 points higher to 361. EIA data showed soybean oil used in biodiesel and renewable biodiesel at 1.108 billion pounds in July. That was the highest in 8 months, but slightly below last year.
Live cattle were weaker, mainly on mid-week losses, down 77 cents. Cash trade was down $2-5 in the North this week at $230, with Southern trade at $233. Feeders managed to close the week with a 17 cent gain (+0.05%). The CME Feeder Cattle Index was down $2.47 week/week to $362.57. Wholesale boxed beef continued to decline this week. Choice was down $9.16 (-2.5%) this week to $362.27. Select was $7.06 (-2.0%) lower at $345.38 as of Friday. Weekly cattle slaughter was estimated at 557,000 head by the USDA. That was 2,000 head larger than last week but 54,571 head below the same week last year
Hogs saw a pullback this week, selling the fact a couple days late following the Hogs & Pigs report from last week. The CME Lean Hog Index was down $1.36 this week at $103.70 as of October 1. USDA’s Pork Carcass Cutout was back down $5.22 (4.6%) this week to $108.30/cwt. All primals were reported lower this week with the belly down $17.11. Weekly hog slaughter totaled 2.602 million head this week according to USDA. That was 72,000 head above last week but 4,371 head below the same week in 2024.
Cotton futures fell the weakness this week, as December was 110 points lower this week. Pressure came from a weaker crude oil market this week, as prices fell back towards the $60/barrel level. The weekly NASS Crop Progress report showed a total of 67% the US cotton crop with bolls opening by 9/28, with and harvest at 16% complete. Condition ratings were unchanged this week at 47% good/excellent, with the Brugler500 index was 2 points higher at 335.
Market Watch
Next week would normally start with the release of the Export Inspections report on Monday morning, with the Crop Progress report out that afternoon. However, due to the government shutdown, data will be limited, though inspections will be available in some form. This will also push back the release of the weekly Export Sales report on Thursday, as well as the monthly release of the Census trade data, Crop Production, and WASDE reports. EIA has stated they plan to run their data, meaning the weekly Petroleum Status Report will be out on Wednesday. Monday is first notice day for October live cattle, with October cotton futures expiring on Thursday.
Tech Talk: November Soybeans
November had a nice response following the Tuesday report from NASS. Wednesday was a key reversal after spiking the $10 round number support and 78.6% Fib retracement at $9.99. The rally was right to the Bollinger midline at $10.23 3/4. That was spiked on Friday but held for a shooting star. If we can continue the rally, a trendline off the August and September highs is at $10.45 ½, with the longer term trendline at $ 10.55 ¾. Stochastics say to go for it with a buy signal, with MACD losing bearish momentum.
There is a risk of loss in futures and options trading. Similar risks exist for cash commodity producers. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Copyright 2025 Brugler Marketing & Management. All rights reserved.
Short and Sweet. Ag Marketing Report 10/06/2025
This week’s column doesn’t have as much substance as it normally does due to the fact that we haven’t had any normal non-mandatory government data since Tuesday. We lacked the monthly demand and weekly Export Sales reports from USDA nor the CFTC data all due to the government shutdown. Still despite the lack of data, the market doesn’t stop trading. Most of the stuff is already factored in anyway, as we saw on the lack of much extreme selling on Tuesday following an additional 200 mbu of corn out there. Much like we failed to sell the additional corn acres in previous reports. Still, much like the harvest has run rather uninterrupted for the most part, this column will be a little shorter. Though for the bulls, this last week’s price action lack much in terms of sweetness.
Corn continued the pullback this week, despite a Wednesday/Thursday rally that tried to take losses back. December was still 3 cents lower from last Friday. Grain Stocks data tallied September 1 corn stock at 1.532 bbu, down 231 mbu from last year, but a 207 mbu above the September WASDE ending stocks estimates. Monday’s Crop Progress report indicated a total of 95% of the US corn crop dented as of September 21, with 71% mature. Harvest was 18% complete by last Sunday. Conditions were steady on the week at 66% good/excellent, with the Brugler500 index unchanged at 370. Weekly EIA data from Wednesday showed ethanol production falling another 29,000 barrels per day in the week ending on September 26 at 995,000 barrels per day. Stocks of ethanol saw a draw of 704,000 barrels to 22.764 million barrels.
The wheat complex was under pressure for much of the week, as we found some more bushels early in the week. MPLS was down 8 cents (-1.41%) this week. Chicago SRW futures were 4 ½ cents in the red on the week, with the December KC HRW contract showing an 8 ½ cent loss. Crop Progress data showed the US winter wheat crop at 34% planted, 2 points behind normal, as emergence was 13%. USDA’s Small Grains Summary from this week showed all wheat production at 1.984 bbu, 57 mbu above the August Crop Production report number. Winter wheat production was shown at 1.402 bbu, 50 mbu larger than expected, with HRW at 804 mbu, SRW at 353 mbu, and white winter at 244 mbu. Spring wheat production was pegged at 497 mbu, with durum at 86 mbu. Grain Stocks data showed wheat stocks at 2.12 bbu on September 1. That was 128 mbu larger than the same date in 2024.
Soybeans got a bounce this week, mainly in the last half, up 4 ¼ cents from last Friday. Soybeans found some support this week from a President Trump post that soybeans will be a heavy topic of conversation in the meeting between he and China’s President Xi later this month. December soybean meal was the supportive side of the products, up $4.00/ton (1.46%) on the week, as bean oil was 14 points (0.33%) lower. NASS showed a total of 316 mbu of soybeans on hand as of September 1 in the qurterly Grain Stocks report. That was a 14 mbu lower compared to the WASDE ending stocks estimate from earlier this month and a 26 mbu reduction from last year. The weekly Crop Progress report tallied 79% of the US soybean crop dropping leaves by 9/28, with harvest now 19% complete. Crop condition ratings were back up 1% to 62% good/excellent this week, with the Brugler500 index 3 points higher to 361. EIA data showed soybean oil used in biodiesel and renewable biodiesel at 1.108 billion pounds in July. That was the highest in 8 months, but slightly below last year.
Live cattle were weaker, mainly on mid-week losses, down 77 cents. Cash trade was down $2-5 in the North this week at $230, with Southern trade at $233. Feeders managed to close the week with a 17 cent gain (+0.05%). The CME Feeder Cattle Index was down $2.47 week/week to $362.57. Wholesale boxed beef continued to decline this week. Choice was down $9.16 (-2.5%) this week to $362.27. Select was $7.06 (-2.0%) lower at $345.38 as of Friday. Weekly cattle slaughter was estimated at 557,000 head by the USDA. That was 2,000 head larger than last week but 54,571 head below the same week last year
Hogs saw a pullback this week, selling the fact a couple days late following the Hogs & Pigs report from last week. The CME Lean Hog Index was down $1.36 this week at $103.70 as of October 1. USDA’s Pork Carcass Cutout was back down $5.22 (4.6%) this week to $108.30/cwt. All primals were reported lower this week with the belly down $17.11. Weekly hog slaughter totaled 2.602 million head this week according to USDA. That was 72,000 head above last week but 4,371 head below the same week in 2024.
Cotton futures fell the weakness this week, as December was 110 points lower this week. Pressure came from a weaker crude oil market this week, as prices fell back towards the $60/barrel level. The weekly NASS Crop Progress report showed a total of 67% the US cotton crop with bolls opening by 9/28, with and harvest at 16% complete. Condition ratings were unchanged this week at 47% good/excellent, with the Brugler500 index was 2 points higher at 335.
Market Watch
Next week would normally start with the release of the Export Inspections report on Monday morning, with the Crop Progress report out that afternoon. However, due to the government shutdown, data will be limited, though inspections will be available in some form. This will also push back the release of the weekly Export Sales report on Thursday, as well as the monthly release of the Census trade data, Crop Production, and WASDE reports. EIA has stated they plan to run their data, meaning the weekly Petroleum Status Report will be out on Wednesday. Monday is first notice day for October live cattle, with October cotton futures expiring on Thursday.
Tech Talk: November Soybeans
November had a nice response following the Tuesday report from NASS. Wednesday was a key reversal after spiking the $10 round number support and 78.6% Fib retracement at $9.99. The rally was right to the Bollinger midline at $10.23 3/4. That was spiked on Friday but held for a shooting star. If we can continue the rally, a trendline off the August and September highs is at $10.45 ½, with the longer term trendline at $ 10.55 ¾. Stochastics say to go for it with a buy signal, with MACD losing bearish momentum.
There is a risk of loss in futures and options trading. Similar risks exist for cash commodity producers. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Copyright 2025 Brugler Marketing & Management. All rights reserved.