Outside of the cooler temps, changing of the weather, smell of harvest in the air, fall is one of my favorite times of year mainly because I can justify leaving the window open overnight. There’s not much better waking up to warm covers and a cool brisk feeling in the air. Though it does make it tough to get out of bed. However, we are entering October, and while the forecast is calling for a little warmer temps over the next couple of weeks, we are soon going to be getting to a time period where the nights will be getting a little too cool for this ‘luxury.’ For the lack of better phrasing, my window is closing, both figuratively and literally. The same can also be said about the soybean export season. While we are just starting to get in the field and get the soybeans out, our seasonal export time period suggests we ship heavy off the combine from October through December. Well, as we approach this seasonal, there’s just one problem. We don’t have a buyer. While it’s true that outside of China and ‘unknown’ that we have the largest export book since 2018/19, those two (or at least the former) are 60% of the reason for soybean demand around the world. They have a lot to do with the seasonality aspect of exports and getting ~55-60% of US bean exports out of the country by January 1. From that seasonal standpoint, their window is closing too.
Corn continued the side this week, as December was down from last Friday this time by 2 cents. USDA reported several private export sale announcements early this week, totaling 748,857 MT. The weekly Crop Progress report indicated a total of 91% of the US corn crop dented as of September 21, with 56% mature. Harvest was 11% complete by last Sunday. Conditions slipped back another 1% this week at 66% good/excellent, with the Brugler500 index falling 2 points to 370. Weekly EIA data showed ethanol production falling another 31,000 barrels per day in the week ending on September 19 at 1.024 million barrels per day. Stocks of ethanol saw a draw of build of 866,000 barrels to 23.438 million barrels. Export Sales data showed a marketing year high in 2025/26 corn bookings at 1.923 MMT in the week that ended on September 18. Commitments are now the highest on record for this week at 25.757 MMT, already 34% of the USDA forecast and ahead of the 30% average. Commitment of Traders data showed specs increasing their net short in corn futures and options by 14,624 contracts as of 9/23, at 94,675 contracts.
The wheat complex faded late again this week with the three exchanges closing mixed. MPLS was the leader to the upside, just a tick higher. Chicago SRW futures slipped just 2 3/4 lower, with the December KC HRW contract showing a 1 3/4 cent loss. Crop Progress data showed the US spring wheat crop at 96% harvested. The winter wheat crop was pegged at 20% planted, 3 points behind normal. The Thursday Export Sales report tallied 2025/26 wheat business improving to a 3-week high at 539,842 MT in the week ending on September 11. Shipped and unshipped sales so far in the marketing year are 13.699 MMT, 56% of the USDA export projection and ahead of the 54% average pace. Chicago wheat specs added back 12,110 contracts to their net short as of Tuesday, taking it to 97,935 contracts. In KC wheat, they cut back their net short by another 1,230 contracts to 50,304 contracts by 9/23.
Soybeans were weaker again this week, as November slipped back by 11 ¾ cents. Much of that came early in the week, following the short 2-day suspension of the Argentina export tax in which China purchased a reported 2.6 MMT of soybeans. October soybean meal was down $14.10/ton (4.98%) on the week, as bean oil was 43 points (0.86%) lower. The weekly Crop Progress report tallied 61% of the US soybean crop dropping leaves by 9/21, with harvest now 9% complete. Crop condition ratings slipped another 2% to 61% good/excellent this week, with the Brugler500 index falling 4 points to 358. Export Sales data showed 2025/26 soybean sales slipping back to 724,459 MT for the week of September 18, though there still has yet to be a bean sold to China. Total commitments start the marketing year at 11 MMT, the lowest out of the last 16 years. Managed money flipped back to a net short in soybean futures and options during the week ending on September 23 to a net 29,302 contracts, a move of 31,589 contracts to the short side.
Live cattle saw some pressure this week, with October back down $1.77 (+0.76%). Cash trade was steady down $3 in the South at $237, with northern action $235-237. Feeders were higher in the October contract this week, up $2.90 (+0.82%). The CME Feeder Cattle Index was up $4.41 week/week to $365.04. The New World screwworm has now made its way withing 70 miles of the US border, causing a bit of back and forth trade this week on thoughts that the border will remain closed but fears of it getting closer. Wholesale boxed beef continued its descent this week, as we move to a seasonally weaker period. Choice was down $10.62 (-2.8%) this week to $371.43. Select was $7.48 (-2.1%) lower at $352.44 as of Friday. Weekly beef production was up 0.8% from last week but 8.4% below the same week last year at 485.4 million lbs. Production year to date is 4.4% lower on a 7.1% decline in slaughter. USDA’s Cold Storage report from Friday showed beef stocks on August 31 at 393,802 million lbs. Export Sales data showed just 8,446 MT of beef sold in the week ending on 9/18, a 6-week low. Shipments saw a slight drop from last week to 12,465 MT. Managed money trimmed another 2,844 contracts from their net long position as of Tuesday, taking it to 122,903 contracts. Spec funds cut back another 1,564 contracts from their net long to 24,327 contracts by September 23.
Hogs were helped by some friendly data this week, with October up $3.52. The CME Lean Hog Index was down 64 cents this week at $105.06 as of September 24. USDA’s Pork Carcass Cutout was back up $1.49 (1.3%) this week to $113.52/cwt. The butt primal was the only reported lower on the week. Thursday’s quarterly Hogs & Pigs report showed September 1 inventory down 1.35% from last year at 74.472 million head. Hogs kept for breeding saw a drop of 1.82% to 5.934 million head, with the market hog inventory falling 1.31% vs. last year to 68.538 million head. Weekly pork production was down 1.4% from last week and 1.2% below the same week last year at 536.8 million lbs. Pork production to date is down 2.1% on a 2.1% drop in slaughter. Cold Storage data showed pork stocks at the end of August the lowest since 2010 at 393.89 million lbs. USDA reported 29,402 MT of pork sold in the week ending on 9/18, a 4-week high. Shipments of pork were tallied at 29,297 MT, back down from last week. Weekly CFTC data showed managed money adding another 186 contracts to their now record net long position as of Tuesday to 142,444 contracts.
Cotton futures were back on the higher side this week up 11 points. The weekly NASS Crop Progress report showed a total of 60% the US cotton crop bolls opening by 9/21, with and harvest at 12% complete. Condition ratings fell 5% to 47% good/excellent, with the Brugler500 index was 11 points lower at 333. Cotton Ginnings data showed 464,300 RB of cotton ginned as of September 15, 31% below the same point last year. Thursday’s Export Sales report showed a pullback in bookings to 86,094 RB in 2025/26 sales for week ending on 9/18. Shipments improved to 137,223 RB. Commitments for the current year exports are just 4.059 million RB, which is 37% of the USDA forecast and lags the 53% average sales pace. The FSA Adjusted World Price for cotton was 41 points lower this week, to 54.38 cents/lb. Commitment of Traders data showed spec traders adding back 2,943 contracts to their net short position as of September 23 to a net -62,004 contracts.
Market Watch
Next week starts with the normal release of the weekly Export Inspections report on Monday morning and the Crop Progress report out that afternoon. USDA will released their quarterly Grains Stocks and annual Small Grains Summary on Tuesday morning. Tuesday is also first notice day for October soybean meal and oil futures. The weekly EIA Petroleum Status Report will be out on Wednesday. We will also get the monthly Grain Crushing, Fats & Oils, and Cotton Systems reports from NASS that afternoon. Thursday morning will see the release of the weekly Export Sales report. Friday is the last trading day for October live cattle options.
Tech Talk: December Corn
December corn has been in a fairly solid uptrend since the August low at $3.92. However, that uptrend is being threatened at the moment. As you can see, futures continue to test the lower boundary of the rising regression channel, at $4.22. Now, the close was at that exact point, thus it has held. However, as you may also be able to tell, futures failed to buy back above the 18-day moving average at $4.22 ¾, which has held several tests in the last week. From a technical perspective, they’re at a critical point, as breaking below the $4.22 area would indicate the trend being over, with a test of some potential support down below. If we do break the trend, which the not bearish MACD would suggest, the 38.2% retracement off of the August low is at $4.16 ¼, with the 40-day moving average at $4.14. Ultimately, if futures decide to go and post a secondary harvest low as we did last year, the weekly chart expiration gap at $4.05 ¼ would be a logical target. On the other hand, if the trend would remain intact, the gap from July 4th at $4.32 3/4, which has remained open following two separate retests (bearish), Would be an initial target, with a downtrend line up near the $4.40 area.
There is a risk of loss in futures and options trading. Similar risks exist for cash commodity producers. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Copyright 2025 Brugler Marketing & Management. All rights reserved.
Closing Window. Ag Marketing Report 09/30/2025
Outside of the cooler temps, changing of the weather, smell of harvest in the air, fall is one of my favorite times of year mainly because I can justify leaving the window open overnight. There’s not much better waking up to warm covers and a cool brisk feeling in the air. Though it does make it tough to get out of bed. However, we are entering October, and while the forecast is calling for a little warmer temps over the next couple of weeks, we are soon going to be getting to a time period where the nights will be getting a little too cool for this ‘luxury.’ For the lack of better phrasing, my window is closing, both figuratively and literally. The same can also be said about the soybean export season. While we are just starting to get in the field and get the soybeans out, our seasonal export time period suggests we ship heavy off the combine from October through December. Well, as we approach this seasonal, there’s just one problem. We don’t have a buyer. While it’s true that outside of China and ‘unknown’ that we have the largest export book since 2018/19, those two (or at least the former) are 60% of the reason for soybean demand around the world. They have a lot to do with the seasonality aspect of exports and getting ~55-60% of US bean exports out of the country by January 1. From that seasonal standpoint, their window is closing too.
Corn continued the side this week, as December was down from last Friday this time by 2 cents. USDA reported several private export sale announcements early this week, totaling 748,857 MT. The weekly Crop Progress report indicated a total of 91% of the US corn crop dented as of September 21, with 56% mature. Harvest was 11% complete by last Sunday. Conditions slipped back another 1% this week at 66% good/excellent, with the Brugler500 index falling 2 points to 370. Weekly EIA data showed ethanol production falling another 31,000 barrels per day in the week ending on September 19 at 1.024 million barrels per day. Stocks of ethanol saw a draw of build of 866,000 barrels to 23.438 million barrels. Export Sales data showed a marketing year high in 2025/26 corn bookings at 1.923 MMT in the week that ended on September 18. Commitments are now the highest on record for this week at 25.757 MMT, already 34% of the USDA forecast and ahead of the 30% average. Commitment of Traders data showed specs increasing their net short in corn futures and options by 14,624 contracts as of 9/23, at 94,675 contracts.
The wheat complex faded late again this week with the three exchanges closing mixed. MPLS was the leader to the upside, just a tick higher. Chicago SRW futures slipped just 2 3/4 lower, with the December KC HRW contract showing a 1 3/4 cent loss. Crop Progress data showed the US spring wheat crop at 96% harvested. The winter wheat crop was pegged at 20% planted, 3 points behind normal. The Thursday Export Sales report tallied 2025/26 wheat business improving to a 3-week high at 539,842 MT in the week ending on September 11. Shipped and unshipped sales so far in the marketing year are 13.699 MMT, 56% of the USDA export projection and ahead of the 54% average pace. Chicago wheat specs added back 12,110 contracts to their net short as of Tuesday, taking it to 97,935 contracts. In KC wheat, they cut back their net short by another 1,230 contracts to 50,304 contracts by 9/23.
Soybeans were weaker again this week, as November slipped back by 11 ¾ cents. Much of that came early in the week, following the short 2-day suspension of the Argentina export tax in which China purchased a reported 2.6 MMT of soybeans. October soybean meal was down $14.10/ton (4.98%) on the week, as bean oil was 43 points (0.86%) lower. The weekly Crop Progress report tallied 61% of the US soybean crop dropping leaves by 9/21, with harvest now 9% complete. Crop condition ratings slipped another 2% to 61% good/excellent this week, with the Brugler500 index falling 4 points to 358. Export Sales data showed 2025/26 soybean sales slipping back to 724,459 MT for the week of September 18, though there still has yet to be a bean sold to China. Total commitments start the marketing year at 11 MMT, the lowest out of the last 16 years. Managed money flipped back to a net short in soybean futures and options during the week ending on September 23 to a net 29,302 contracts, a move of 31,589 contracts to the short side.
Live cattle saw some pressure this week, with October back down $1.77 (+0.76%). Cash trade was steady down $3 in the South at $237, with northern action $235-237. Feeders were higher in the October contract this week, up $2.90 (+0.82%). The CME Feeder Cattle Index was up $4.41 week/week to $365.04. The New World screwworm has now made its way withing 70 miles of the US border, causing a bit of back and forth trade this week on thoughts that the border will remain closed but fears of it getting closer. Wholesale boxed beef continued its descent this week, as we move to a seasonally weaker period. Choice was down $10.62 (-2.8%) this week to $371.43. Select was $7.48 (-2.1%) lower at $352.44 as of Friday. Weekly beef production was up 0.8% from last week but 8.4% below the same week last year at 485.4 million lbs. Production year to date is 4.4% lower on a 7.1% decline in slaughter. USDA’s Cold Storage report from Friday showed beef stocks on August 31 at 393,802 million lbs. Export Sales data showed just 8,446 MT of beef sold in the week ending on 9/18, a 6-week low. Shipments saw a slight drop from last week to 12,465 MT. Managed money trimmed another 2,844 contracts from their net long position as of Tuesday, taking it to 122,903 contracts. Spec funds cut back another 1,564 contracts from their net long to 24,327 contracts by September 23.
Hogs were helped by some friendly data this week, with October up $3.52. The CME Lean Hog Index was down 64 cents this week at $105.06 as of September 24. USDA’s Pork Carcass Cutout was back up $1.49 (1.3%) this week to $113.52/cwt. The butt primal was the only reported lower on the week. Thursday’s quarterly Hogs & Pigs report showed September 1 inventory down 1.35% from last year at 74.472 million head. Hogs kept for breeding saw a drop of 1.82% to 5.934 million head, with the market hog inventory falling 1.31% vs. last year to 68.538 million head. Weekly pork production was down 1.4% from last week and 1.2% below the same week last year at 536.8 million lbs. Pork production to date is down 2.1% on a 2.1% drop in slaughter. Cold Storage data showed pork stocks at the end of August the lowest since 2010 at 393.89 million lbs. USDA reported 29,402 MT of pork sold in the week ending on 9/18, a 4-week high. Shipments of pork were tallied at 29,297 MT, back down from last week. Weekly CFTC data showed managed money adding another 186 contracts to their now record net long position as of Tuesday to 142,444 contracts.
Cotton futures were back on the higher side this week up 11 points. The weekly NASS Crop Progress report showed a total of 60% the US cotton crop bolls opening by 9/21, with and harvest at 12% complete. Condition ratings fell 5% to 47% good/excellent, with the Brugler500 index was 11 points lower at 333. Cotton Ginnings data showed 464,300 RB of cotton ginned as of September 15, 31% below the same point last year. Thursday’s Export Sales report showed a pullback in bookings to 86,094 RB in 2025/26 sales for week ending on 9/18. Shipments improved to 137,223 RB. Commitments for the current year exports are just 4.059 million RB, which is 37% of the USDA forecast and lags the 53% average sales pace. The FSA Adjusted World Price for cotton was 41 points lower this week, to 54.38 cents/lb. Commitment of Traders data showed spec traders adding back 2,943 contracts to their net short position as of September 23 to a net -62,004 contracts.
Market Watch
Next week starts with the normal release of the weekly Export Inspections report on Monday morning and the Crop Progress report out that afternoon. USDA will released their quarterly Grains Stocks and annual Small Grains Summary on Tuesday morning. Tuesday is also first notice day for October soybean meal and oil futures. The weekly EIA Petroleum Status Report will be out on Wednesday. We will also get the monthly Grain Crushing, Fats & Oils, and Cotton Systems reports from NASS that afternoon. Thursday morning will see the release of the weekly Export Sales report. Friday is the last trading day for October live cattle options.
Tech Talk: December Corn
December corn has been in a fairly solid uptrend since the August low at $3.92. However, that uptrend is being threatened at the moment. As you can see, futures continue to test the lower boundary of the rising regression channel, at $4.22. Now, the close was at that exact point, thus it has held. However, as you may also be able to tell, futures failed to buy back above the 18-day moving average at $4.22 ¾, which has held several tests in the last week. From a technical perspective, they’re at a critical point, as breaking below the $4.22 area would indicate the trend being over, with a test of some potential support down below. If we do break the trend, which the not bearish MACD would suggest, the 38.2% retracement off of the August low is at $4.16 ¼, with the 40-day moving average at $4.14. Ultimately, if futures decide to go and post a secondary harvest low as we did last year, the weekly chart expiration gap at $4.05 ¼ would be a logical target. On the other hand, if the trend would remain intact, the gap from July 4th at $4.32 3/4, which has remained open following two separate retests (bearish), Would be an initial target, with a downtrend line up near the $4.40 area.
There is a risk of loss in futures and options trading. Similar risks exist for cash commodity producers. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Copyright 2025 Brugler Marketing & Management. All rights reserved.