Softs Report 09/30/2025

MORNING SOFTS COMMENTS
Jack Scoville

Tuesday, September 30, 2025

Price Futures Group, CBOT
Chicago, IL
(312) 264-4322
jscoville@pricegroup.com

JSL, SA de CV
San Salvador, El Salvador (503) 2260-7806

COTTON
General Comments: Cotton was lower before the USDA stocks report that will be released later today. The US government might shut down later this week as well and that fact kept many traders nervous and sidelined as government reports would not be released. The US harvest is ready to start in most areas and has been started in some areas. Macro economic factors played a big role as the US government is supporting the economy via reduced interest rates and deficit spending. Commercial buying has been noted near 66.00 basis nearest futures. There are still ideas that growing conditions are generally good. There are still reports of good weather in Texas and into the southeast and demand concerns caused by the tariff wars are still around. A few showers have been reported in Texas and the Southeast is also getting showers. Bolls are opening, but the rain does not seem heavy enough to damage the fibers in the bolls. The monsoon in India is good and a good production there is possible.
Overnight News: ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against October futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 70 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed to up. Support is at 65.80, 64.30, and 63.00 December, with resistance of 67.80, 68.90 and 69.50 December.

This Week Last Week Last Year Average
Cotton Bolls Opening 67 60 71 69
Cotton Harvested 16 12 18 16
Very Poor Poor Fair Good Excellent
Cotton This Week 5 12 36 37 10
Cotton Last Week 6 12 35 37 10
Cotton Last Year 17 20 32 27 4

FCOJ
General Comments: Futures were mostly a little lower yesterday in light volume trading before a potential US government shutdown later this week. The market remains in a trading range on the weekly charts. The weather is considered good for production here and in Brazil and Mexico. Trends are mixed. Development conditions are good in Florida and in Brazil now with daily rounds of showers in Florida and dry weather in Brazil. The poor production potential for the crops comes from early dry weather but also the greening disease that has caused many Florida and closed near the lows of the week producers to lose trees. Brazil production potential got hurt by cold and dry weather seen earlier in the year.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 230.00, 227.00, and 221.00 November, with resistance at 242.00, 249.00, and 255.00 November.

COFFEE
General Comments: New York and London were lower after reports indicated that the weather in Brazil has improved and in anticipation of the meeting between Lula of Brazil and Trump of the US coming soon. Rains have been reported in Coffee production areas lately. There are still reduced deliverable supplies for both exchanges as commercials have taken the supplies instead of buying in cash markets. The lack of deliverable stocks in both markets and the lack of deliveries has supported the futures market. Reductions in deliverable stocks are starting to abate. But, the rains have pushed producers to sell the current inventory no matter the price. Prices in the world have been lower as US demand has waned under the Trump tariff regime. There are hopes that a breakthrough can be seen this week when Trump and Lula meet.
Overnight News: The ICO average price is 312.17 ct/lb.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up. Support is at 368.00, 356.00, and 351.00 December, and resistance is at 388.00, 393.00 and 407.00 December. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 4040, 3910, and 3830 November, with resistance at 4350, 4550, and 4690 November.

SUGAR
General Comments: New York and London were a little higher yesterday and trends are up in New York, but are sideways in London. Ideas of good supplies for the market from good growing conditions for cane and beets around the world continue. The South Center Brazil harvest is faster now amid drier conditions. Production in Center-South Brazil has also been strong. The outlook for cane crops in India and Thailand are in good condition with reports of good rains this year, while Brazilian cane continue to favor producing sugar over ethanol.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up. Support is at 1620, 1580, and 1550 March and resistance is at 1660, 1680, and 1700 March. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 450.00, 439.00, and 433.00 December, with resistance at 464.00, 470.00, and 477.00 December.

COCOA
General Comments: Both markets closed lower in narrow range trading last week as demand concerns in West Africa continue. US demand has been weakening due to the increased prices inside the US from the Trump tariffs and world demand is thought zto be weaker due to higher prices. There are still reports of increased production potential in other countries outside of West Africa, including Asia and Central America. The market feels that there is less demand and less production from Ivory Coast and Ghana and the lack of demand is expected to continue. Ecuador is expected to become the second largest producer of Cocoa, replacing Ghana on the list. Commercials told wire services last week that harvests may get off to a slow start in parts of West Africa, with the main crop season due to start on October 1.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 6700, 6540, and 6420 December, with resistance at 7170, 7380, and 7690 December. Trends in London are mixed to down. Support is at 4700, 4510, and 4400 December, with resistance at 5080, 5290, and 5350 December.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322