Bombs Away. The Energy Report 09/26/2025

Oil is above all major moving averages except for the 200 day after Europeans told the Russians that they’re ready to shoot down jets. Does that mean oil is at risk of finally breaking out to the upside?

After President Trump suggested that Europe should shoot down Russian airspace violators a high-stakes showdown in Moscow, Britain, France, and Germany envoys aired their concerns over last week’s incursion where three Russian MIG-31s buzzed Estonian airspace. The takeaway? The diplomats are convinced this was no accident—it was a calculated move right from the Russian playbook. Meanwhile, tensions weren’t just simmering in Europe. Stateside, U.S. fighter jets had to scramble today, shadowing Russian aircraft that were getting a little too close for comfort up over Alaska.

The heat is on, folks, and the skies are anything but friendly. And the heating oil crack spread surged as diesel is a concern if these tensions remain high. Call Phil Flynn at 888-264-5665 to learn about these spreads at this crucial time. Russia is already starting to restrict some diesel exports

The Hill reported that, “NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte on Thursday backed President Trump’s call for member countries to shoot down Russian planes that enter their airspace but suggested they should only do so once they’ve exhausted other options. In an interview on Fox News’s “Fox & Friends,” Brian Kilmeade asked Rutte whether he agrees with Trump, who told a reporter, “Yes, I do,” when asked whether NATO countries should shoot down Russian jets that violate their airspace, according to the Hill.

In the meantime, President Trump is putting the full court press on Turkey trying to get them to stop buying Russian oil and gas and, in the meantime, President Trump scored a big win. Reuters reported that Turkey has signed a 20-year deal with trading company Mercuria to buy U.S. liquefied natural gas, Energy Minister Alparslan Bayraktar said on Wednesday, as U.S. President Donald Trump pushes for Europe to halt Russian energy purchases.

Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan had a sit down with Bret Baier on Special Report where he refused to acknowledge Hamas as a terror organization. There are 16 billion cubic meters of Russian gas deals set to expire this year alone. Perhaps if we can get Turkey to agree to stop buying Russian oil and gas other countries will follow. Europe is going to put more pressure on the countries to stop buying Russian oil and gas and putting on big tariffs so the economic squeeze could be coming to Russia very quickly assuming people follow through.

In the Meantime, the oil glut predictions are looking more like nonsense. Reuters reported that OPEC+ has delivered about three quarters of the extra oil output it targeted for since the group started production hikes in April, and the level may fall closer to half later in the year as producers hit capacity limits, sources and analysts said and data showed. OPEC+, comprising the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and partner nations such as Russia, accounts for 50% of global oil production. The group has been producing approximately 500,000 barrels per day below its established targets—a shortfall representing 0.5% of world oil demand—which has contradicted market expectations of an oversupply and contributed to supporting oil prices.

If you want to look at the big picture on oil nonsense, the predictions of peak oil demand are a mirage. Stephanie Kelly and Shadia Nasralla at Reuters reported that P (BP.L), opens new tab said on Thursday it expects global oil demand to grow until 2030, five years later than its forecast a year ago, pointing to slowed efforts to increase energy efficiency and reduce global carbon emissions.

The oil major’s latest Energy Outlook, an annual study of energy trends through 2050, models two scenarios. The “Current Trajectory” scenario is based on existing policies and pledges. Its “Below 2-Degrees” scenario, a reference to the aim of limiting global warming to less than 2 degrees Celsius in line with Paris Agreement goals, envisions about a 90% drop in carbon emissions by 2050 from 2023 levels.

Even if you look at WTI and $65 does feel high based on off the trading range for the last year, you have to respect the fact that we are above every major moving average. This comes against the backdrop of a market that was being sold on predictions of an oil glut and increasing geopolitical tensions. While the market may fail to follow through on this breakout, it does look more dangerous to be short than it has in a very long time.

Natural gas on the other hand is starting to look a little bit more bullish and seems to be bottoming. Part of the reason is better than expected demand due to heat in places like Texas and down South and warmer than expected temperatures in the Midwest where believe it or not people are still turning on their air conditioners late in the afternoon. Weather is key and the Fox Weather ap is humming as major storms are developing. Fox Weather reports that US East Coast eyes increasing threat from Invest 94L which is expected to become Tropical Storm Imelda. “While there is significant uncertainty in the long-range track and intensity of the system, the chances of wind, rainfall, and storm surge impacts for a portion of the Southeast U.S. coast during the next several days are increasing,” the National Hurricane Center wrote Friday morning.

FOX Weather Hurricane Specialist Bryan Norcross agreed, noting that there’s increasing consensus from computer forecast models that would-be Imelda will maintain enough distance from Tropical Storm Humberto which formed yesterday, that Imelda will be pulled north by the large upper-level low-pressure system over the eastern U.S. “In this scenario, after potentially brushing South Florida, Tropical Storm or Hurricane Imelda becomes a threat to the Georgia or Carolina coast early in the week,” Norcross wrote in his Thursday blog. “In addition, the moisture combined with the front could cause dangerous flooding in the Appalachians later next week.” Norcross emphasized that forecasts for just-developing systems are subject to large errors and are likely to change.

NOAA’s Hurricane Hunters flew reconnaissance missions into Invest 94L Thursday which will provide the NHC with better data collection in both the upper and lower levels of the atmosphere. This data will help computer forecast models develop a more accurate picture of the track and future intensity of the storm.

If you want to keep up with these seismic shifts weather make sure you download the Fox Weather Ap to keep up with the wild weather. Also stay tuned to the Fox Business Network Invested in you.

Call to get the Phil Flynn Daily Trade Levels and to open your account by calling 888-264-5665 or email pflynn@pricegroup.com.