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Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

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Grains Report 09/25/2025

By On September 25, 2025 - 2:38 PM · In Market Commentaries, Morning Grains & Softs Report
DJ U.S. Export Sales: Weekly Sales Totals-Sep 25
    For the week ended Sep 18, in thousand metric tons, except cotton in
thousand running bales. Net changes in commitments are gross sales,
less cancellations, buy-backs and other downward adjustments. Total
commitments are total export shipments plus total sales.
   The marketing year for wheat and barley began Jun 1, cotton and
and rice Aug 1, corn, soybeans and sorghum Sep 1, and soymeal and
soyoil Oct 1. Source: USDA
               wk’s net chg                  total
               in commitments             commitments      undlvd sales
                 this yr    next yr   this yr   last yr  this yr  next yr
wheat              539.8        0.0   13640.4   11028.5   5120.9     24.9
  hrw              111.4        0.0    5422.2    2551.7   2065.8      2.5
  srw               90.6        0.0    1934.0    1810.7    636.8     22.4
  hrs              150.7        0.0    3410.3    3680.2   1248.7      0.0
  white            197.0        0.0    2661.5    2793.3   1129.1      0.0
  durum             -9.9        0.0     212.3     192.9     40.5      0.0
corn              1923.4        0.0   25756.6   14743.7  22197.5     93.6
soybeans           724.5        0.0   11001.7   17430.3   9418.6      2.3
soymeal             79.6      146.6   15784.5   13877.8   1243.9   3306.8
soyoil             -23.3       53.2    1095.6     281.3     15.9     78.0
upland cotton       86.1        0.0    4058.9    4959.0   3137.8    236.2
pima cotton          8.5        0.0     114.6     151.0     66.4      0.0
sorghum             56.6        0.0     414.8     615.3    379.4      0.0
barley               7.3        0.0      55.8      19.7     33.7      0.0
rice                 8.3        0.0     690.4     929.0    413.2      0.0
WHEAT
General Comments:   Wheat closed a little lower yesterday after trading higher earlier in the day.  Traders continue to monitor world wheatz prices and think the US needs cheaper prices to compete.  Russian sources told wire services that producers there are set to reduce offers and production due to low prices and problems with the government.  It remains too dry in Winter Wheat areas and too wet in Spring Wheat areas of Russia, but crop size ideas are expected to increase due to reports of big yields in Spring Wheat growing areas.  A French government report showed plenty of production but lower quality.  Rains have been good in the northern Great Plains and Canada, but western areas have been a little too dry for best yield potential and the northern Plains had hot and dry areas earlier in the year.  Southern hemisphere crops appear to be good and Australia estimates that production this year will be high.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed.  Support is at 505, 499 and 493 December, with resistance at 532, 535, and 543 December.  Trends in Kansas City are mixed.  Support is at 496, 490, and 484 December, with resistance at 520, 523, and 529 December. Trends in Minneapolis are not available.
RICE:
General Comments   Rice was a little lower in quiet trading yesterday.  The market remained in a trading range.  The harvest is wrapping up in Texas and southern Louisiana.  Harvest is active in Mississippi and Arkansas.  Chart trends are mixed on the charts.  The cash market has been slow with low bids from buyers in domestic markets and average or less export demand.  Louisiana reports good but not great yields and quality.  Texas reports average to below average field and milling yields.  Milling quality of the old crop Rice remains below industry standards and it takes more Rough Rice to create the grain for sale to stores and exporters.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed.  Support is at 1124, 1112, and 1100 November and resistance is at 1168, 1181, and 1201 November.
CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn was lower yesterday in quiet trading.  Trends are still turning down as the crop is maturing and the harvest is starting to expand.  There are ideas that US production might not be super strong due to disease such as rust to offset the demand losses.  Temperatures should average near to below normal this week and there are forecasts for scattered showers.  Most of the western Midwest has seen adequate or greater precipitation and production ideas are high.  Areas east of the Mississippi River have been very dry for the last month or more.  Demand for Corn in world markets remains moderate to strong.  Oats were near unchanged.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis:  Trends in Corn are mixed to down.  Support is at 417, 414, and 411 December, and resistance is at 431, 434, and 442 December.  Trends in Oats are down.  Support is at 301, 295, and 289 December, and resistance is at 316, 320, and 324 December.
SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and the products were a little lower in quiet trading yesterday.  There are still no indications that China was changing its trade policies and on forecasts for a little rain to be seen in the Midwest this weekend.  Cool and dry weather has been seen recently in the Midwest.  The dry weather could hurt pod fill and bean size.  Argentina has removed taxes on Soybeans exports and China immediately bought up to 15 cargoes.  China has not bought US Soybeans yet and traders are worried that demand for the new crop will be a lot less this year. Good growing conditions continue in the Midwest with cool and mostly dry weather in the forecast.  Prices are still higher in Brazil, but China and other buyers are still buying there for political reasons.  Export demand remains less for US Soybeans as China has been taking almost all the export from South America due to the Trump tariff regime.
Overnight News:
Analysis:  Trends in Soybeans are down.  Support is at 1002, 995, and 981 November, and resistance is at 1024, 1029, and  1036 November.  Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to down.  Support is at 270.00, 266.00, and 263.00 October, and resistance is at 277.00, 279.00, and 285.00 October.  Trends in Soybean Oil are down.  Support is at 4840, 4740, and 4680 October, with resistance at 5070, 5110, and 5170 October.
PALM OIL AND CANOLA
General Comments:   Palm Oil futures were higher today with the price action in Chicago and ideas of weaker production and strong export demand.  Canola was a little lower with Chicago Soybeans.  Concerns remain about demand potential.  The Canadian government is moving now to support farmers in the face of the Chinese demand loss and also in the face of the Trump tariffs.  Trends are mixed on the daily charts and on the weekly charts.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are down.  Support is at 602.00, 596.00, and 590.00 November, with resistance at 630.00, 640.00, and 653.00 November.  Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to down.  Support is at 4320, 4200, and 4130 December, with resistance at 4430, 4480, and 4530 December.
DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – Sep 25
  The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Thursday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
  Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
              Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded
Oct           1080.00    +05.00      Unquoted   –        –
Nov           1087.50    +05.00      Unquoted   –        –
Dec           1095.00    +10.00      Unquoted   –        –
Jan/Feb/Mar   1097.50    +10.00      Unquoted   –        –
Apr/May/Jun   1080.00    +10.00      Unquoted   –        –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
              Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded
Oct           1085.00    +05.00      Unquoted   –        –
Nov           1092.50    +05.00      Unquoted   –        –
Dec           1100.00    +10.00      Unquoted   –        –
Jan/Feb/Mar   1102.50    +10.00      Unquoted   –        –
Apr/May/Jun   1085.00    +10.00      Unquoted   –        –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
              Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded
Oct           1065.00    +05.00      Unquoted   –        –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
              Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded
Oct           1035.00    +05.00      Unquoted   –        –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
              Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded
Oct           4,400.00   +30.00      Unquoted   –        –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
              Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded
Oct           481.00     +02.00        Unquoted   –        –
($1=MYR4.2085)
DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Sep 25
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 246,153 lots, or 9.66 billion yuan
            Open      High       Low     Close     Prev.    Settle       Ch.       Vol      Open
                                                  Settle                                Interest
Nov-25     3,916     3,951     3,907     3,929     3,890     3,930        40   171,437   179,194
Jan-26     3,898     3,926     3,893     3,914     3,879     3,912        33    58,517   118,749
Mar-26     3,900     3,927     3,894     3,912     3,886     3,912        26     6,761    33,725
May-26     3,929     3,960     3,929     3,945     3,929     3,944        15     4,712     8,474
Jul-26     3,931     3,957     3,929     3,943     3,931     3,943        12     4,516     8,875
Sep-26     3,941     3,964     3,940     3,949     3,942     3,951         9       210       935
Corn
Turnover: 644,470 lots, or 13.91 billion yuan
            Open      High       Low     Close     Prev.    Settle       Ch.       Vol      Open
                                                  Settle                                Interest
Nov-25     2,167     2,176     2,160     2,165     2,158     2,166         8   398,761   729,266
Jan-26     2,137     2,146     2,131     2,133     2,134     2,136         2   186,036   522,142
Mar-26     2,147     2,152     2,140     2,143     2,146     2,144        -2    25,798   237,445
May-26     2,204     2,209     2,194     2,196     2,201     2,199        -2    18,795    98,497
Jul-26     2,216     2,220     2,207     2,210     2,214     2,211        -3    14,203    47,195
Sep-26     2,231     2,236     2,224     2,226     2,231     2,227        -4       877     2,002
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,681,691 lots, or 49.25 billion yuan
            Open      High       Low     Close     Prev.    Settle       Ch.         Vol        Open
                                                  Settle                                    Interest
Nov-25     2,929     2,950     2,922     2,940     2,895     2,934        39      75,971     479,636
Dec-25     2,970     2,985     2,951     2,978     2,937     2,973        36      13,569     138,806
Jan-26     2,958     2,976     2,951     2,967     2,922     2,961        39   1,262,657   1,937,464
Mar-26     2,923     2,939     2,918     2,933     2,897     2,929        32      64,425     352,674
May-26     2,760     2,768     2,750     2,762     2,743     2,759        16     234,066   1,032,478
Jul-26     2,757     2,757     2,743     2,750     2,737     2,749        12      10,675     132,739
Aug-26     2,853     2,871     2,853     2,866     2,848     2,864        16       6,538      29,155
Sep-26     2,858     2,875     2,858     2,870     2,851     2,870        19      13,790      43,222
Palm Oil
Turnover: 737,482 lots, or 67.88 billion yuan
            Open      High       Low     Close     Prev.    Settle       Ch.       Vol      Open
                                                  Settle                                Interest
Oct-25     8,994     9,118     8,994     9,060     8,904     9,072       168       445       371
Nov-25     9,134     9,202     9,100     9,168     9,044     9,162       118     7,887    15,961
Dec-25     9,108     9,228     9,108     9,190     9,052     9,186       134     1,576     2,037
Jan-26     9,188     9,264     9,154     9,222     9,078     9,214       136   688,356   357,389
Feb-26     9,154     9,242     9,154     9,224     9,062     9,184       122        26     1,504
Mar-26     9,104     9,216     9,104     9,176     9,018     9,142       124       182     1,097
Apr-26     9,118     9,120     9,118     9,118     8,982     9,092       110        19        96
May-26     8,994     9,074     8,974     9,030     8,902     9,030       128    38,726    89,486
Jun-26     8,944     8,948     8,888     8,928     8,798     8,928       130        28       124
Jul-26     8,850     8,850     8,818     8,830     8,718     8,834       116        11       169
Aug-26     8,754     8,778     8,708     8,772     8,618     8,750       132        17        60
Sep-26     8,622     8,678     8,600     8,654     8,546     8,646       100       209       584
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 439,358 lots, or 35.77 billion yuan
            Open      High       Low     Close     Prev.    Settle       Ch.       Vol      Open
                                                  Settle                                Interest
Nov-25     8,144     8,226     8,144     8,198     8,100     8,188        88     7,735    13,073
Dec-25     8,200     8,270     8,200     8,246     8,154     8,238        84     1,301     7,267
Jan-26     8,166     8,218     8,142     8,192     8,096     8,180        84   361,847   527,444
Mar-26     8,076     8,156     8,076     8,142     8,050     8,112        62        95     1,669
May-26     7,894     7,960     7,882     7,930     7,852     7,924        72    67,720   230,723
Jul-26     7,848     7,914     7,848     7,910     7,816     7,878        62       168       610
Aug-26     7,852     7,900     7,852     7,886     7,816     7,880        64        28        74
Sep-26     7,804     7,878     7,804     7,866     7,782     7,852        70       464       777
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.
Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322        
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