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Jack Scoville

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Softs Report 09/15/2025

By On September 15, 2025 - 9:53 AM · In Market Commentaries, Morning Grains & Softs Report
COTTON
General Comments:   Cotton was higher last week and trends started to turn up on the daily charts but remained sideways on the weekly charts.  USDA made few changes to the US production and supply and demand estimates, and the changes made were mostly very small.  Production was estimated at 13.224 million bales and ending stock were unchanged at 3.60 million bales.  USDA did lower stocks levels for the world market, mostly by cutting major importer stocks.  USDA showed improved conditions in its reports last week.  There are still ideas that growing conditions are generally good.  There are still reports of good weather in Texas and into the Southeast and demand concerns caused by the tariff wars are still around.  The monsoon in India is good and a good production there is possible.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends:  Trends in Cotton are mixed to up.  Support is at 65.80, 64.30, and 63.00 December, with resistance of 68.90, 69.50 and 69.90 December.
Cotton Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by Type – States and United States: 2024 and
Forecasted September 1, 2025
——————————————————————————————–
                 :  Area harvested   :         Yield per acre         :    Production 1/
                 :————————————————————————–
  Type and State :         :         :        :         2025          :          :
                 :  2024   :  2025   :  2024  :———————–:   2024   :   2025
                 :         :         :        : August 1  :September 1:          :
——————————————————————————————–
                 : — 1,000 acres —   ———- pounds ———-        1,000 bales 2/
                 :
Upland           :
United States …: 7,604.7   7,229.7     880        854         857     13,942.0   12,915.0
American Pima    :
United States …:   200.5     139.2   1,128      1,273       1,066        471.0      309.0
All              :
United States …: 7,805.2   7,368.9     886        862         861     14,413.0   13,224.0
——————————————————————————————–
1/ Production ginned and to be ginned.
2/ 480-pound net weight bale.
Cottonseed Production – United States: 2024 and Forecasted September 1, 2025
—————————————————————————–
                 :                        Production
      State      :———————————————————–
                 :            2024             :           2025 1/
—————————————————————————–
                 :                        1,000 tons
United States …:           4,262.0                       4,000.0
U.S. Cotton Supply and Use  1/
================================================================================
                            2023/24   2024/25 Est.  2025/26 Proj.  2025/26 Proj.
Item                                                          Aug            Sep
================================================================================
                                               Million Acres
  Planted                     10.23          11.18           9.28           9.30
  Harvested                    6.44           7.81           7.36           7.37
                                                Pounds
Yield per Harvested
   Acre                         899            886            862            861
                                            Million 480 Pound Bales
Beginning Stocks               4.65           3.15           4.00           4.00
Production                    12.07          14.41          13.21          13.22
Imports                        0.00           0.00           0.01           0.01
  Supply, Total               16.72          17.57          17.22          17.23
Domestic Use                   1.85           1.70           1.70           1.70
Exports, Total                11.75          11.90          12.00          12.00
  Use, Total                  13.60          13.60          13.70          13.70
Unaccounted 2/                -0.03          -0.03          -0.08          -0.07
Ending Stocks                  3.15           4.00           3.60           3.60
Avg. Farm Price 3/             76.1           63.0           64.0           64.0
================================================================================
                                WASDE – 664 – 18                  September 2025
  World Cotton Supply and Use  1/
                            (Million 480-Pound Bales)
================================================================================
                                    Supply                Use
Region                 Beginning Produc-                            Loss  Ending
                          Stocks    tion Imports Domestic Exports    2/   Stocks
================================================================================
                                  2025/26 Proj.
World
                     Aug   75.05  116.62   43.58  117.99   43.59   -0.23   73.91
                     Sep   74.06  117.68   43.71  118.83   43.70   -0.23   73.14
  World Less China
                     Aug   39.25   85.12   38.28   80.49   43.51   -0.23   38.89
                     Sep   39.22   85.18   38.51   80.33   43.63   -0.23   39.18
United States
                     Aug    4.00   13.21    0.01    1.70   12.00   -0.08    3.60
                     Sep    4.00   13.22    0.01    1.70   12.00   -0.07    3.60
Total Foreign
                     Aug   71.05  103.41   43.58  116.29   31.59   -0.15   70.31
                     Sep   70.06  104.46   43.70  117.13   31.70   -0.16   69.54
   Major Exporters  4/
                     Aug   25.80   58.19    4.35   34.92   28.00   -0.15   25.55
                     Sep   25.74   58.85    4.25   34.89   28.12   -0.16   25.99
   Major Importers  8/
                     Aug   43.02   42.34   36.12   76.60    2.44    0.00   42.43
                     Sep   42.11   42.72   36.32   77.45    2.44    0.00   41.25
================================================================================
                                WASDE – 664 – 28                  September 2025
COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of September 09, 2025
    :                                    Reportable Positions                                 :    Nonreportable
    :—————————————————————————————- :      Positions
    :         Non-Commercial      :      Commercial   :     Index Traders :        Total
    :    Long :   Short :Spreading:    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COTTON NO. 2 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #033661                                                              Open Interest is   306,465
    : Positions                                                                               :
    :   35,847   110,492    69,059    98,608    84,119    89,013    28,279   292,528   291,950:   13,937    14,515
    : Changes from: September 2, 2025          (Change in open interest:       5,204)         :
    :     -456     2,469       356     4,012         0     1,376     1,805     5,288     4,630:      -83       575
    : Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader                         :
    :     11.7      36.1      22.5      32.2      27.4      29.0       9.2      95.5      95.3:      4.5       4.7
    : Total Traders:   347          Number of Traders in Each Category                        :
    :       87       127        98        74        61        43        25       265       253:
——————————————————————————————————————-
FCOJ
General Comments: Futures were higher last week but held to the current trading range as the weather is considered good for production here and in Brazil and Mexico.  Development conditions are good in Florida and in Brazil now with daily rounds of showers in Florida and dry weather in Brazil.  The poor production potential for the crops comes from early dry weather but also the greening disease that has caused many Florida and closed near the lows of the week producers to lose trees.
Overnight News:  ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against September futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 0 contracts.
Chart Trends:  Trends in FCOJ are mixed to up.  Support is at 240.00, 230.00, and 227.00 November, with resistance at 260.00, 274.00, and 286.00 November.
California Navel orange production for the 2025-2026 season is forecast at
40.0 million boxes (1.60 million tons), up 6 percent from last season. The
initial forecast is based on an objective measurement survey conducted in
California’s Central Valley from mid-June to the beginning of September. The
objective measurement survey indicated that fruit set was down 9 percent from
last year but the average fruit size was up 6 percent from last year. Harvest
is expected to begin in October.
Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of September 9, 2025
:                                             Reportable Positions                                             :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant :                             :                             :                              :
:  Processor/User   :        Swap Dealers         :        Managed Money        :      Other Reportables       :
:   Long  :  Short  :   Long  :  Short  :Spreading:   Long  :  Short  :Spreading:   Long  :  Short  :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
FRZN CONCENTRATED ORANGE JUICE – ICE FUTURES U.S.   (CONTRACTS OF 15,000 POUNDS)                               :
CFTC Code #040701                                                    Open Interest is     9,807                :
: Positions                                                                                                    :
:    2,737     5,714       511         0       162     2,319     1,038         5     1,349       123     1,242 :
: Changes from:     September 2, 2025                                                                          :
:       79      -158        51         0        13        63       220       -89         0        26       132 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader                                              :
:     27.9      58.3       5.2       0.0       1.7      23.6      10.6       0.1      13.8       1.3      12.7 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category                                  Total Traders:    43                     :
:       11         9         4         0         .         6         6         .        11         .         7 :
COFFEE
General Comments:  Both markets were higher last week after strong gains on Friday.  There are still reduced deliverable supplies for both exchanges as commercials have taken the supplies instead of buying in cash markets.  Robusta is still more available to the market and with Brazil holding back on offers to world destinations.  The lack of deliverable stocks in both markets and the lack of deliveries has supported the futures market.  Reductions in deliverable stocks are starting to abate.  Arabica could correct sharply if the U.S. Supreme Court upholds last month’s federal appeals court ruling that President Trump overstepped his authority in enacting sweeping trade tariffs.  Rains will be needed in September to improve the outlook for next year’s arabica crop in Brazil, which has been impacted by dry weather and cold snaps.  Vietnam exported 85,000 metric tons of coffee in August, up 12.9% from a year ago. Exports of coffee from January to August rose 7.8% from a year earlier.
Overnight News: The ICO average price is 344.98 ct/lb.  ICE NY said that 5 contracts were delivered against September futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 868 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up.  Support is at 364.00, 343.00, and 337.00 December, and resistance is at 399.00, 405.00 and 412.00 December.  Trends in London are mixed.  Support is at 4250, 4100, and 3910 November, with resistance at 4800, 4980, and 5060 November.
COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of September 09, 2025
    :                                    Reportable Positions                                 :    Nonreportable
    :—————————————————————————————- :      Positions
    :         Non-Commercial      :      Commercial   :     Index Traders :        Total
    :    Long :   Short :Spreading:    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COFFEE C – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #083731                                                              Open Interest is   227,030
    : Positions                                                                               :
    :   35,268    12,729    80,181    54,781   119,545    47,218     7,052   217,448   219,506:    9,583     7,524
    : Changes from: September 2, 2025          (Change in open interest:       8,202)         :
    :    2,297      -795     2,491     2,815     5,908       536       392     8,139     7,996:       63       205
    : Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader                         :
    :     15.5       5.6      35.3      24.1      52.7      20.8       3.1      95.8      96.7:      4.2       3.3
    : Total Traders:   364          Number of Traders in Each Category                        :
    :      107        85       112        87       111        46        20       292       282:
——————————————————————————————————————-
SUGAR
General Comments:  New York and London were higher last week and it looks like a retracement of recent losses is underway.  The Brazil production could be less, in part due to a recent freeze event and in part to reports of less sucrose in the cane.  Ideas of good supplies for the market from good growing conditions for cane and beets around the world continue.  The South Center Brazil harvest is faster now amid drier conditions.  Production in Center-South Brazil has also been strong.  The outlook for cane crops in India and Thailand remain solid with reports of good rains this year, while Brazilian cane  continue to favor producing sugar over ethanol.  South Africa’s sugar farmers are having trouble from U.S. tariffs and from cheap imports from countries including neighboring Eswatini.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up.  Support is at 1530, 1500, and 1470 March and resistance is at 1660, 1700, and 1720 March.  Trends in London are mixed.  Support is at 454.00, 450.00, and 439.00 December, with resistance at 473.00, 476.00, and 481.00 December.
  U.S. Sugar Supply and Use  1/
================================================================================
                               2023/24  2024/25 Est. 2025/26 Proj. 2025/26 Proj.
Item                                                           Aug           Sep
================================================================================
                                             1000 Short Tons, Raw Value
Beginning Stocks                  1843          2131          2439          2436
Production 2/                     9313          9303          9428          9470
  Beet Sugar                      5172          5332          5266          5303
  Cane Sugar                      4141          3971          4162          4167
    Florida                       2079          1927          2008          2051
    Louisiana                     2022          2044          2154          2116
    Texas                           40             0             0             0
Imports                           3840          3283          2457          2235
  TRQ 3/                          1788          1516          1396          1393
  Other Program 4/                 300           360           200           200
  Non-program                     1752          1406           861           642
    Mexico                         521           497           439           220
  High-tier tariff/other          1231           910           422           422
      Total Supply               14995         14716         14325         14141
Exports                            249           125           100           100
Deliveries                       12532         12155         12065         12065
  Food                           12425         12045         11960         11960
  Other 5/                         106           110           105           105
Miscellaneous                       83             0             0             0
      Total Use                  12864         12280         12165         12165
Ending Stocks                     2131          2436          2160          1976
Stocks to Use Ratio               16.6          19.8          17.8          16.2
================================================================================
    Mexico Sugar Supply and Use and High Fructose Corn Syrup Consumption 1/
================================================================================
                                    Supply                Use
Fiscal                  Beginning  Produc-  Imports Domestic  Exports   Ending
 Year                      Stocks     tion               2/             Stocks
================================================================================
                                            1000 Metric Tons, Actual Weight
Sugar
2024/25 Est.
Aug                          1418     4771      175     4459      840     1064
Sep                          1418     4771      175     4459      879     1026
2025/26 Proj.
Aug                          1064     5094      142     4569      650     1081
Sep                          1026     5094      142     4569      612     1081
================================================================================
                                WASDE – 664 – 17                  September 2025
COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of September 09, 2025
    :                                    Reportable Positions                                 :    Nonreportable
    :—————————————————————————————- :      Positions
    :         Non-Commercial      :      Commercial   :     Index Traders :        Total
    :    Long :   Short :Spreading:    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SUGAR NO. 11 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #080732                                                              Open Interest is 1,107,568
    : Positions                                                                               :
    :   83,063   266,590   253,525   438,693   429,086   250,660    77,659 1,025,941 1,026,860:   81,627    80,708
    : Changes from: September 2, 2025          (Change in open interest:      24,832)         :
    :  -14,108    21,033     4,492    30,950   -15,892    -4,593     9,400    16,741    19,033:    8,091     5,799
    : Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader                         :
    :      7.5      24.1      22.9      39.6      38.7      22.6       7.0      92.6      92.7:      7.4       7.3
    : Total Traders:   269          Number of Traders in Each Category                        :
    :       65        81        95        73        64        38        22       227       215:
——————————————————————————————————————-
COCOA
General Comments:  New York and London were both a little lower again last week as demand concerns in West Africa continue.  There are still reports of increased production potential in other countries outside of West Africa, including Asia and Central America, but African producers are concerned about potential losses now.  The market feels that there is less demand and less production from Ivory Coast and Ghana and the lack of demand is expected to continue.  Ecuador is expected to become the second largest producer of Cocoa, replacing Ghana on the list.  ADMISI noted that chocolate maker Mondelez last week estimated that the pod count in Africa was 7% above the five-year average and much higher than last year.
Overnight News:  ICE NY said that there were 3 notices were posted for delivery against September futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 608 contracts.
Chart Trends:  Trends in New York are mixed.  Support is at 7150, 7100, and 6540 December, with resistance at 8050, 8140, and 8500
December.  Trends in London are mixed.  Support is at 4930, 4700, and 4510 December, with resistance at 5350, 5500, and 5650 September.
COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of September 09, 2025
    :                                    Reportable Positions                                 :    Nonreportable
    :—————————————————————————————- :      Positions
    :         Non-Commercial      :      Commercial   :     Index Traders :        Total
    :    Long :   Short :Spreading:    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short
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COCOA – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #073732                                                              Open Interest is   111,777
    : Positions                                                                               :
    :   13,240    15,750    26,673    34,967    53,810    25,495     7,885   100,375   104,117:   11,403     7,660
    : Changes from: September 2, 2025          (Change in open interest:       3,697)         :
    :      -88      -197     1,412     1,337     1,581       978       623     3,640     3,419:       57       278
    : Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader                         :
    :     11.8      14.1      23.9      31.3      48.1      22.8       7.1      89.8      93.1:     10.2       6.9
    : Total Traders:   165          Number of Traders in Each Category                        :
    :       40        48        54        38        35        29        14       142       118:
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Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322        
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