Of the 60 number 1 hits that George Strait has released, there is one that is synonymous with this week’s corn and even soybean action. I’m not talking about love, as “Ocean Front Property” would suggest, nor I am I talking about Arizona. However after over 1.1 billion bushels of corn have been added to the supply side of the balance sheet in the last 2 reports, and over 3.5 million acres, it sure sounds bearish. While the acreage number was just a miss in June, the additional 1.5 million acres from this week added to some already bearish fundamentals. The market, however, sure isn’t buying something (likely a yield number?) as the reaction was anything but what you’d expected. Closing the day with double digit gains sure seems suggests that they’ll throw the ‘Golden Gate in Free’ as well.
Corn put this rally pants on this week, mainly on Friday, with December up 12 cents this week. USDA Crop Production update showed yield down 2.1 bpa at 186.7, though acreage offset that with a 1.47 million acre planted increase to 98.728 million. Production was up 73 mbu to 16.814 bbu. That limited the stocks reduction for new crop, down just 7 mbu to 2.11 bbu, with old crop up 25 mbu to 1.325 bbu. The weekly Crop Progress report showed the US corn crop at 74% dented as of September 7, with 25% mature. Harvest was listed at 4% complete. Ratings fell another 1% this week at 68% good/excellent, with the Brugler500 index dropping 1 at 375. EIA data showed ethanol production rising another 30,000 barrels per day in the week ending on September 5 at 1.105 million barrels per day. Stocks of ethanol were up 273,000 barrels to 22.837 million barrels. Weekly Export Sales data tallied 2025/26 corn bookings 539,900 MT in the week that ended on September 4. Commitments started the year the second highest in record at 22.601 MMT. The Friday Commitment of Traders report indicated managed money added back 8,442 contracts from their net short position as of Tuesday, taking it to 99,929 contracts.
The wheat complex saw some gains this week, as the bears let up this week. Chicago SRW futures were back up 4 1/4 cents, with the December KC HRW contract showing a 9 ½ cent gain. MPLS December spring wheat was 5 ¾ cents higher. The monthly WASDE update showed US wheat stocks down 25 mbu to 844 mbu on an increase to exports. World production was hiked by 9.3 MMT, which helped to raise world stocks by 3.98 MMT to 264.06 MMT. Crop Progress data showed the US spring wheat crop at 85% harvested, 1 point ahead of average. Export Sales data showed US wheat 2025/26 business falling to 305,351 MT in the week ending on September 4, the second lowest for the Marketing year. Shipped and unshipped sales so far in the marketing year are 12.773 MMT, 54% of the USDA export projection and ahead of the 51% average pace. Chicago wheat specs added another 10,451 contracts to their net short as of Tuesday, taking it to 92,394 contracts. In KC wheat, they increased their net short by 1,656 contracts to 53,025 contracts by 9/9.
Soybeans ended the week on a stronger note, with November 19 ¼ cents higher since last Friday. On Friday USDA trimmed yield by just 0.1 bpa to 53.5 bpa, as acres rose 210,000 acres to 81.135 million. That took the production total up 8 mbu to 4.3 bbu, as stocks were 10 mbu higher to 300 mbu for new crop. The product values posted some strength, with September meal $7.10/ton higher and September bean oil up 86 points this week. Monday’s Crop Progress report showed 97% of the US soybean crop setting pods by 8/31 and 21% dropping leaves. Condition ratings were down another percentage point at 64% good/excellent this week, with the Brugler500 index down 1 point to 365. Export Sales data showed 2025/26 soybean sales at 541,055 MT for the week of September 4. Total commitments start the marketing year at 9.35 MMT, the lowest out of the last 16 years. Managed money flipped back to a net short in soybean futures and options by a move of 26,678 contracts as of 9/9, taking that to a net short of 14,714 contracts.
Live cattle extended the pullback this week, with October down another $6, closing in on down $10 over the two-week period. Cash trade was mostly $2-3 weaker this week at $240 across the country. Feeders were down $9.425 on the week, a 2.62% move. The CME Feeder Cattle Index was down $0.98 week/week to $363.08. Wholesale boxed beef prices pulled back again this week, as we move to a seasonally weaker period. Choice was down $10.72 (2.6%) this week to $400.04. Select was $6.75 (1.8%) lower at $378.44 as of Friday. Weekly beef production was up 15.6% from last week due to the previous holiday but still 9.3% below the same week last year at 487.4 million lbs. Production year to date is 4.3% lower on a 7% decline in slaughter. Export Sales data showed 12,053 MT in beef sales during the week of September 4, a 3-week low. Shipments were a calendar year low at just 8,650 MT in that week. Managed money added another 561 contracts to their net long position as of Tuesday, taking it to 131,003 contracts. Spec funds cut another 2,739 contracts from their net long to 25,636 contracts by September 9.
Hogs saw continued strength this week, as October managed a $1.10 gain. The CME Lean Hog Index was back up 7 cents this week at $106.04 as of September 10. USDA’s Pork Carcass Cutout was back down $1.36 this week to $114.51/cwt. The picnic and butt were the only primals reported higher on the week. Weekly pork production was up 8.8% from last week but 3.8% below the same week last year at 525.7 million lbs. Pork production year to date is down 2.3% on a 2.3% drop in slaughter. Export Sales data showed a total of 17,327 MT of pork sold in the week ending on 9/4, a 7-week low. Shipments were the lowest since mid-January at 23,358 MT. Weekly CFTC data showed managed money adding another 10,532 contracts to their net long position as of Tuesday to 134,423 contracts.
Cotton was back higher this week, with December back up 80 points. USDA’s Crop Production report showed very few US cotton changes, as planted acreage was up 20,000 acres, with yield trimmed by 1 lb/ac to 861 lbs. Production up just 10,000 bales to 13.224 million bales. Stocks were left at 3.6 million bales as the unaccounted category took up the extra 10,000 bales. The weekly NASS Crop Progress report showed a total of 97% of the US cotton crop setting bolls by 9/7, with 40% opening and harvest already 8% complete. Condition ratings were back up 3% to 54% good/excellent, as the Brugler500 index was 5 points higher at 349. Thursday’s Export Sales report showed an improvement in bookings to 129,598 RB in 2025/26 sales for week ending on 9/4. Shipments were up to 130,206 RB. Commitments for the current year exports are just 3.787 million RB, which is 34% of the USDA forecast and lags the 50% average sales pace. The FSA Adjusted World Price for cotton was 21 points lower this week, to 54.20 cents/lb. Commitment of Traders data showed spec traders adding another 2,536 contracts to their net short position as of September 2 to a net -66,905 contracts.
Market Watch
We start next week with the release of the weekly Export Inspections report on Monday morning and the Crop Progress release that afternoon. NOPA data will also be released on Monday. The weekly EIA Petroleum Status Report will be out on Wednesday. The Fed will also conclude their 2-day meeting on Wednesday, with some looking for a rate cut. Thursday morning will see the release of the weekly Export Sales report. On Friday, USDA will release the monthly Catte on Feed report.
Tech Talk: December Corn
December corn had a solid response to another increase in US production on Friday. The rising regression channel off the August report low ($3.92) has stayed intact, with the lower boundary near $4.16 ½ and the upper end at $4.31. Friday’s rally hit the short term Head and Shoulders bottom count at $4.25 ¾, with a larger H&S at $4.44 (orange lines). That is near a downtrend line off the Feb and April highs at $4.435. We’re going to need some help to get there. The next objective in the cross hairs is the July 4th weekend gap at$ 4.32 ¾. We’ll be interested to see how the market reacts around that gap.
There is a risk of loss in futures and options trading. Similar risks exist for cash commodity producers. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Copyright 2025 Brugler Marketing & Management. All rights reserved.
Ocean Front Property. Ag Marketing Report 09/15/2025
Of the 60 number 1 hits that George Strait has released, there is one that is synonymous with this week’s corn and even soybean action. I’m not talking about love, as “Ocean Front Property” would suggest, nor I am I talking about Arizona. However after over 1.1 billion bushels of corn have been added to the supply side of the balance sheet in the last 2 reports, and over 3.5 million acres, it sure sounds bearish. While the acreage number was just a miss in June, the additional 1.5 million acres from this week added to some already bearish fundamentals. The market, however, sure isn’t buying something (likely a yield number?) as the reaction was anything but what you’d expected. Closing the day with double digit gains sure seems suggests that they’ll throw the ‘Golden Gate in Free’ as well.
Corn put this rally pants on this week, mainly on Friday, with December up 12 cents this week. USDA Crop Production update showed yield down 2.1 bpa at 186.7, though acreage offset that with a 1.47 million acre planted increase to 98.728 million. Production was up 73 mbu to 16.814 bbu. That limited the stocks reduction for new crop, down just 7 mbu to 2.11 bbu, with old crop up 25 mbu to 1.325 bbu. The weekly Crop Progress report showed the US corn crop at 74% dented as of September 7, with 25% mature. Harvest was listed at 4% complete. Ratings fell another 1% this week at 68% good/excellent, with the Brugler500 index dropping 1 at 375. EIA data showed ethanol production rising another 30,000 barrels per day in the week ending on September 5 at 1.105 million barrels per day. Stocks of ethanol were up 273,000 barrels to 22.837 million barrels. Weekly Export Sales data tallied 2025/26 corn bookings 539,900 MT in the week that ended on September 4. Commitments started the year the second highest in record at 22.601 MMT. The Friday Commitment of Traders report indicated managed money added back 8,442 contracts from their net short position as of Tuesday, taking it to 99,929 contracts.
The wheat complex saw some gains this week, as the bears let up this week. Chicago SRW futures were back up 4 1/4 cents, with the December KC HRW contract showing a 9 ½ cent gain. MPLS December spring wheat was 5 ¾ cents higher. The monthly WASDE update showed US wheat stocks down 25 mbu to 844 mbu on an increase to exports. World production was hiked by 9.3 MMT, which helped to raise world stocks by 3.98 MMT to 264.06 MMT. Crop Progress data showed the US spring wheat crop at 85% harvested, 1 point ahead of average. Export Sales data showed US wheat 2025/26 business falling to 305,351 MT in the week ending on September 4, the second lowest for the Marketing year. Shipped and unshipped sales so far in the marketing year are 12.773 MMT, 54% of the USDA export projection and ahead of the 51% average pace. Chicago wheat specs added another 10,451 contracts to their net short as of Tuesday, taking it to 92,394 contracts. In KC wheat, they increased their net short by 1,656 contracts to 53,025 contracts by 9/9.
Soybeans ended the week on a stronger note, with November 19 ¼ cents higher since last Friday. On Friday USDA trimmed yield by just 0.1 bpa to 53.5 bpa, as acres rose 210,000 acres to 81.135 million. That took the production total up 8 mbu to 4.3 bbu, as stocks were 10 mbu higher to 300 mbu for new crop. The product values posted some strength, with September meal $7.10/ton higher and September bean oil up 86 points this week. Monday’s Crop Progress report showed 97% of the US soybean crop setting pods by 8/31 and 21% dropping leaves. Condition ratings were down another percentage point at 64% good/excellent this week, with the Brugler500 index down 1 point to 365. Export Sales data showed 2025/26 soybean sales at 541,055 MT for the week of September 4. Total commitments start the marketing year at 9.35 MMT, the lowest out of the last 16 years. Managed money flipped back to a net short in soybean futures and options by a move of 26,678 contracts as of 9/9, taking that to a net short of 14,714 contracts.
Live cattle extended the pullback this week, with October down another $6, closing in on down $10 over the two-week period. Cash trade was mostly $2-3 weaker this week at $240 across the country. Feeders were down $9.425 on the week, a 2.62% move. The CME Feeder Cattle Index was down $0.98 week/week to $363.08. Wholesale boxed beef prices pulled back again this week, as we move to a seasonally weaker period. Choice was down $10.72 (2.6%) this week to $400.04. Select was $6.75 (1.8%) lower at $378.44 as of Friday. Weekly beef production was up 15.6% from last week due to the previous holiday but still 9.3% below the same week last year at 487.4 million lbs. Production year to date is 4.3% lower on a 7% decline in slaughter. Export Sales data showed 12,053 MT in beef sales during the week of September 4, a 3-week low. Shipments were a calendar year low at just 8,650 MT in that week. Managed money added another 561 contracts to their net long position as of Tuesday, taking it to 131,003 contracts. Spec funds cut another 2,739 contracts from their net long to 25,636 contracts by September 9.
Hogs saw continued strength this week, as October managed a $1.10 gain. The CME Lean Hog Index was back up 7 cents this week at $106.04 as of September 10. USDA’s Pork Carcass Cutout was back down $1.36 this week to $114.51/cwt. The picnic and butt were the only primals reported higher on the week. Weekly pork production was up 8.8% from last week but 3.8% below the same week last year at 525.7 million lbs. Pork production year to date is down 2.3% on a 2.3% drop in slaughter. Export Sales data showed a total of 17,327 MT of pork sold in the week ending on 9/4, a 7-week low. Shipments were the lowest since mid-January at 23,358 MT. Weekly CFTC data showed managed money adding another 10,532 contracts to their net long position as of Tuesday to 134,423 contracts.
Cotton was back higher this week, with December back up 80 points. USDA’s Crop Production report showed very few US cotton changes, as planted acreage was up 20,000 acres, with yield trimmed by 1 lb/ac to 861 lbs. Production up just 10,000 bales to 13.224 million bales. Stocks were left at 3.6 million bales as the unaccounted category took up the extra 10,000 bales. The weekly NASS Crop Progress report showed a total of 97% of the US cotton crop setting bolls by 9/7, with 40% opening and harvest already 8% complete. Condition ratings were back up 3% to 54% good/excellent, as the Brugler500 index was 5 points higher at 349. Thursday’s Export Sales report showed an improvement in bookings to 129,598 RB in 2025/26 sales for week ending on 9/4. Shipments were up to 130,206 RB. Commitments for the current year exports are just 3.787 million RB, which is 34% of the USDA forecast and lags the 50% average sales pace. The FSA Adjusted World Price for cotton was 21 points lower this week, to 54.20 cents/lb. Commitment of Traders data showed spec traders adding another 2,536 contracts to their net short position as of September 2 to a net -66,905 contracts.
Market Watch
We start next week with the release of the weekly Export Inspections report on Monday morning and the Crop Progress release that afternoon. NOPA data will also be released on Monday. The weekly EIA Petroleum Status Report will be out on Wednesday. The Fed will also conclude their 2-day meeting on Wednesday, with some looking for a rate cut. Thursday morning will see the release of the weekly Export Sales report. On Friday, USDA will release the monthly Catte on Feed report.
Tech Talk: December Corn
December corn had a solid response to another increase in US production on Friday. The rising regression channel off the August report low ($3.92) has stayed intact, with the lower boundary near $4.16 ½ and the upper end at $4.31. Friday’s rally hit the short term Head and Shoulders bottom count at $4.25 ¾, with a larger H&S at $4.44 (orange lines). That is near a downtrend line off the Feb and April highs at $4.435. We’re going to need some help to get there. The next objective in the cross hairs is the July 4th weekend gap at$ 4.32 ¾. We’ll be interested to see how the market reacts around that gap.
There is a risk of loss in futures and options trading. Similar risks exist for cash commodity producers. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Copyright 2025 Brugler Marketing & Management. All rights reserved.