No More Volunteers. The Energy Report 09/08/2025

 The voluntary OPEC production cuts are soon to be a thing of the past.  OPEC+ made a headline-grabbing move on Sunday, to unwind their voluntary production cut a year ahead of schedule,  announcing a production boost for October that’s sure to shake up the markets but was leaked last week and mostly priced in.   OPEC+ is tearing up the playbook, speeding up its plan to reverse those voluntary production cuts not in years, not months, but a whole year ahead of schedule.

The talk on the street is that they’re rolling back the remaining 1.65 million barrels per day, drip-feeding the market with 137,500 barrels each month. But is this about clawing back market share, or is OPEC+ simply trying to keep up with demand that’s running hotter than most analysts ever expected?  At the same time, they affirmed their commitment to fully offset any excess production volumes since January 2024.

The eight OPEC+ member nations will convene monthly to evaluate market conditions, monitor compliance, and address compensation measures.   So, when you consider the compensation cuts, we are not really going to see that many more barrels of oil. Their next meeting scheduled is on 5 October 2025. And oil is already shaking it off after last weeks big drop in price.

Still for OPEC I It’s a bold step on  as some believe that it is to reclaim market share,  but other analysts believe it is to meet demand that has been surprising us to the  upside. The question we keep asking is that if Saudi Arabia wants market share why they kept rising raising their price for oil it doesn’t make sense.  The only answer is they are seeing strong demand.

And what about Russian barrels? Legendary Oil Analyst Tom Kloza tweeted that “ Yet another attack on Russian refinery capacity overnight. Ukrainian factions believe they destroyed the crude oil distillation unit at Ilsky, which boasts a processing rate of over 100,000 b/d. These attacks continue to be an unprecedented wildcard in global product supply. .

Tom is Right because this could cause more shortage of heavy oil and diesel or gas oil. Not what you want to have going into winter. You also have Increasing tension between the US And Venezula as the Trump Administration has gone to war against Maduro’s drug traffickers.

This comes as Russian sanctions still lurk with a bold threat from US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent telling Meet The Press that “If the U.S. and the (European Union) can come in, do more sanctions, secondary tariffs on the countries that buy Russian oil, the Russian economy will be in full collapse, and that will bring President Putin to the table.”  If not beware diesel; markets.   The Crack Spread are sold suggests that demand is still strong

This comes as U.S. oil producers continue to send signals that they are struggling especially in the shale patch.  Baker Hughes kas been sounding the  alarm,  even as the U.S. rig count ticked up to 537.   Yet we’re still tracking 45 rigs behind the same time last year, a drop of about 8%.

Crude oil rigs are making a modest comeback, adding two rigs for a total of 414, but that’s still 69 rigs, or 14%, shy of last year’s tally.

Meanwhile, rigs searching for natural gas are in retreat, slipping by one to 118, although that’s a robust 26% leap from the 94 rigs at this point a year ago. It’s a market on the move, and the numbers tell the story: while there are flickers of bullish activity, the industry is still grappling with last year’s shadow. Stay tuned—because every rig added or lost could be the signal for the next big price wave.

EBW Analytics is sounding the alarm on a potential natural gas breakout, with the October contract blasting back above $3.00 per MMBtu. The technicals are heating up, and whispers of trimmed production have traders on edge. If momentum holds, we could be looking at prices leaping past $3.13, with $3.20 and beyond in sight! But wait—don’t get too comfortable. Shifting weather patterns could throw a curveball, possibly swelling storage levels as autumn approaches. Still, EBW’s medium-term outlook is flashing green, even if they warn us to brace for some wild swings in the near term.

It’s a market on the move, and the numbers tell the story: while there are flickers of bullish activity, the industry is still grappling with last year’s shadow. Stay tuned—because every rig added or lost could be the signal for the next big price wave.

 Fox Weather reports that  the odds of a tropical disturbance organizing into our next named storm of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season have dwindled after Invest 91L fizzled out as it approached the Lesser Antilles over the weekend.

The FOX Forecast Center has been keeping a close eye on Invest 91L, which has been swirling in the tropical Atlantic for several days, after computer forecast models had shown favorable conditions to strengthen for much of the week. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) at one point had given a 90% probability the system would eventually reach at least a tropical depression.

Make sure you download the Fox Weather app to keep up on the weather, Stay tuned to the fox Business Network! Invested in you!  Call to open your account today by calling 888-264- 5665 or email me at pflynn@pricegroup.com