Dan Flynn is the writer of The Corn & Ethanol Report, a daily market letter covering grains, energies, and various global issues that are the driving force and backbone of the commodity markets. Contact Mr. Flynn at (312) 264-4374
We kickoff the day with Housing Starts, Housing Starts MoM, Building Permits Prel, and Building Permits MoM Prel at 7:30 A.M., Redbook YoY at 7:55 A.M., Fed Bowman Speech at 1:10 P.M., and API Energy Stocks at 3:30 P.M.
The National Association of Homebuilders reported that builder confidence further eroded in its August survey of homebuilders. The Homebuilder’s Housing Market Index slipped 3% from July to 32 and was down 18% from a year ago. This marked the 7th consecutive month that the index at the lowest level since December 2022, the 2nd lowest since the pandemic low in April 2020, and the 3rd lowest monthly reading since June 2012. The NAHB’s Chief Economist, Dr. Robert Dietz noted that affordability, and essentially interest rates, are the most significant concern for builders, and Dietz affirmed the White House call for rate cuts. The August HMI showed 37% of builders reported cutting prices in August, while the average price was 5% – the same as every month since November. 66% of builders reported using sales incentives, which was the highest since the pandemic.
Central US Weather Pattern Discussion
Models Struggle with Central Forecast Details as Tropical Season Begins in Earnest; Rain Probable in Southern/Central Plains August 24-27:
The details of the Central US forecast will be changeable as Hurricane Erin skirts the Eastern Seaboard in the next 72 hours. Rains and potential flooding happened in the Great Lakes region last night, and there is broad agreement that patchy showers favor the Great Lakes region this week and that organized rainfall impacts the Southern & Central Plains next week. EU ensemble model’s 1-5 & 6-10 precipitation forecasts shows late season moisture loss will be centered on the far E Midwest. Additional rain will be desired across the mid-South prior to Sep 10th, with rain changes possible, but cooling Central US temperatures slow evaporation rates. Warmth lingers in the Central Midwest for another two days. Temps cool thereafter, and highs Aug 20-31 will be capped in the mid-70’s & low 80’s. The mild temp pattern aids kernel/pod fill. The evolution of 8-15 day precipitation forecast will be monitored.
Ag REsources Iowa & Illinois Crop Tour Summary
Ag Resource’s tour of Illinois & Iowa last week found both record corn ear populations as well as kernels per ear. In many fields, it was difficult to find a blank stalk. The field data suggest that all of the ingredients are there for further upward revisions to both states corn/soybean yield if regular rain/mild temps are extended into mid-September. ARC’s final tally on combined IL & IA ear counts was 32,808 per acre, a record and up 6% year-over-year. That’s an additional 1,900 ears per acre! The IA/IL ear/plant ratio was a robust 97.9%, vs. 95.7% a year ago, the highest of ARC’s data series. Kernel per ear averaged a record 674 vs. 670 a year ago. Population data alone justifies NASS’s August yield estimates (IA & IL) with high odds that the September or October report could reflect further yield gains of 4-11 BPA depending on test weight measures. We will get Pro Farmer results and whispers trickling in, and ARC expects that tour to find similar results. Plant/ear population data for IA reflects top-and-subsoil moisture abundance, which also exists across KS, NE, the Dakotas, MN, and WI. This has been a special growing season.
Corn Comments & Analysis
CBOT Corn Recoveries Struggle at Chart Resistance; Pro Farmer Finding High Yield Potential:
Corn prices ended mixed but little changed. The widening of Dec corn’s premium to Sep is noteworthy, while Dec CBOT 50-day moving average has been a hard stop for rallies since the early part of summer. Intense debate over yield lies ahead, but ARC’s work maintains NASS is close with its first estimate but will raise them in subsequent reports. It’s IL, IA and western Corn Belt that allow national yield to exist in a range of 186-190 BPA in 2025. Pro Farmer’s tour in NE and SD is finding yield potential some 20% + better than last year. The US’s national crop rating fell seasonally to 71% GD/EX, vs. 72% the previous week and still the highest for mid-August since 2016. US supply dominates this week, but longer-term concern is one of eroding carries without considerable South American crop issues in 25/26. Sell recoveries at $4.10-$4.20, basis Dec 25, and $4.55-44.60, basis Dec 26. Enlarged Brazilian exports eat into the US’s share of trade from Sep to Dec. Corn futures struggle on a further rally.
Have A Great Trading Day!
Contact me directly with any questions or to open a trading account at 1-888-264-5665 or dflynn@pricegroup.com
Scouts Hit the Fields: Early Yield Estimates & Weather Outlook. The Corn & Ethanol Report 08/19/2025
We kickoff the day with Housing Starts, Housing Starts MoM, Building Permits Prel, and Building Permits MoM Prel at 7:30 A.M., Redbook YoY at 7:55 A.M., Fed Bowman Speech at 1:10 P.M., and API Energy Stocks at 3:30 P.M.
The National Association of Homebuilders reported that builder confidence further eroded in its August survey of homebuilders. The Homebuilder’s Housing Market Index slipped 3% from July to 32 and was down 18% from a year ago. This marked the 7th consecutive month that the index at the lowest level since December 2022, the 2nd lowest since the pandemic low in April 2020, and the 3rd lowest monthly reading since June 2012. The NAHB’s Chief Economist, Dr. Robert Dietz noted that affordability, and essentially interest rates, are the most significant concern for builders, and Dietz affirmed the White House call for rate cuts. The August HMI showed 37% of builders reported cutting prices in August, while the average price was 5% – the same as every month since November. 66% of builders reported using sales incentives, which was the highest since the pandemic.
Central US Weather Pattern Discussion
Models Struggle with Central Forecast Details as Tropical Season Begins in Earnest; Rain Probable in Southern/Central Plains August 24-27:
The details of the Central US forecast will be changeable as Hurricane Erin skirts the Eastern Seaboard in the next 72 hours. Rains and potential flooding happened in the Great Lakes region last night, and there is broad agreement that patchy showers favor the Great Lakes region this week and that organized rainfall impacts the Southern & Central Plains next week. EU ensemble model’s 1-5 & 6-10 precipitation forecasts shows late season moisture loss will be centered on the far E Midwest. Additional rain will be desired across the mid-South prior to Sep 10th, with rain changes possible, but cooling Central US temperatures slow evaporation rates. Warmth lingers in the Central Midwest for another two days. Temps cool thereafter, and highs Aug 20-31 will be capped in the mid-70’s & low 80’s. The mild temp pattern aids kernel/pod fill. The evolution of 8-15 day precipitation forecast will be monitored.
Ag REsources Iowa & Illinois Crop Tour Summary
Ag Resource’s tour of Illinois & Iowa last week found both record corn ear populations as well as kernels per ear. In many fields, it was difficult to find a blank stalk. The field data suggest that all of the ingredients are there for further upward revisions to both states corn/soybean yield if regular rain/mild temps are extended into mid-September. ARC’s final tally on combined IL & IA ear counts was 32,808 per acre, a record and up 6% year-over-year. That’s an additional 1,900 ears per acre! The IA/IL ear/plant ratio was a robust 97.9%, vs. 95.7% a year ago, the highest of ARC’s data series. Kernel per ear averaged a record 674 vs. 670 a year ago. Population data alone justifies NASS’s August yield estimates (IA & IL) with high odds that the September or October report could reflect further yield gains of 4-11 BPA depending on test weight measures. We will get Pro Farmer results and whispers trickling in, and ARC expects that tour to find similar results. Plant/ear population data for IA reflects top-and-subsoil moisture abundance, which also exists across KS, NE, the Dakotas, MN, and WI. This has been a special growing season.
Corn Comments & Analysis
CBOT Corn Recoveries Struggle at Chart Resistance; Pro Farmer Finding High Yield Potential:
Corn prices ended mixed but little changed. The widening of Dec corn’s premium to Sep is noteworthy, while Dec CBOT 50-day moving average has been a hard stop for rallies since the early part of summer. Intense debate over yield lies ahead, but ARC’s work maintains NASS is close with its first estimate but will raise them in subsequent reports. It’s IL, IA and western Corn Belt that allow national yield to exist in a range of 186-190 BPA in 2025. Pro Farmer’s tour in NE and SD is finding yield potential some 20% + better than last year. The US’s national crop rating fell seasonally to 71% GD/EX, vs. 72% the previous week and still the highest for mid-August since 2016. US supply dominates this week, but longer-term concern is one of eroding carries without considerable South American crop issues in 25/26. Sell recoveries at $4.10-$4.20, basis Dec 25, and $4.55-44.60, basis Dec 26. Enlarged Brazilian exports eat into the US’s share of trade from Sep to Dec. Corn futures struggle on a further rally.
Have A Great Trading Day!
Contact me directly with any questions or to open a trading account at 1-888-264-5665 or dflynn@pricegroup.com
Thanks,
Dan Flynn
Questions? Ask Dan Flynn today at 312-264-4374