Trumps Peace Map. The Energy Report 08/19/2025

President Trump’s peace push is making his detractors look foolish as he drives a real possibility of the end of the war between Russia and Ukraine putting downward pressure on oil prices. The Peace Map is changing and a Hostage Deal- with Hamas might be too much for the Iranian military.

A White House meeting is being held with Vladimir Zelensky, along with European leaders including French President Emmanuel Macron, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, and Finnish President Alexander Stubb. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen are also attending. This diplomatic power play is setting the stage for a package of security guarantees that could pave the way for an historic sit-down between Putin and Zelensky. The guarantees, to be detailed by military and intelligence officials, are intended to let Ukraine increase its troop numbers freely, according to anonymous sources familiar with the matter as reported.

 

At the same time, reports indicate that a top Iranian military adviser warned Ayatollah Khamenei that, quote, “We’re not in a ceasefire; we’re in a stage of war. Another war may happen, and after that, there may be no more wars.” It’s a bold statement for a military leader to say to the Ayatollah. This raises concerns that we might be getting into a situation where Ayatollah Khamenei is losing power and that there could be a military coup in Iran. While this is just speculation on my part, it could be because they are upset.

It’s not every day you see Iran’s military openly telling the Ayatollah what to do. That alone could be a sign that Ali Khamenei’s grasp on power is slipping. If so, things in the Middle East might get even more unpredictable—especially since this could all be tied to the Hamas deal Trump just brokered. Here’s what’s happening: According to sources talking to Axios, Hamas has agreed to a new ceasefire proposal in Gaza, worked out by Qatari and Egyptian mediators. It’s basically the same as the last U.S.-backed plan—98% identical, in fact. Israel had already said yes to that one, but talks stalled when Hamas didn’t go along. Now, though, Israeli officials say they haven’t seen Hamas’s written response yet, so they’re holding off judgment. Prime Minister Netanyahu’s only comment so far: “Hamas is under immense pressure”—which says a lot.

The deal Hamas accepted would mean a 60-day ceasefire, the release of 10 live hostages and 18 deceased hostages, and Israel would free some Palestinian prisoners. This news landed just hours after President Trump pushed Israel to ramp up its attacks on Hamas, insisting the hostages wouldn’t be released unless Hamas was, as he put it, “confronted and destroyed.” Let’s pray for peace and all hostages to get released.

 

And while oil prices are under pressure because of peace, the big picture on oil and demand for energy continues to be a big story. Zero Hedge reported that, “Texas is facing grid strain due to storms, rapid demand growth, and outdated operations, prompting plans to cut off power to data centers during emergencies. Yikes!

 

Nationwide, rising electricity demand—driven by electrification and AI data centers—exposes vulnerabilities in an inflexible and congested transmission system. The Department of Energy warns blackout risks could rise 100-fold by 2030. Grid modernization and smarter operations are urgently needed, as infrastructure improvements alone won’t arrive in time to address near-term challenges. The Midcontinent Independent System Operator recently green-lit an apprx $22.0 billion transmission buildouts to relieve rising congestion. The California Independent System Operator saw renewable curtailments surge nearly?30% last year. The PJM Interconnection anticipates 3% to 4% annual peak load growth through 2035 driven by data centers and expects up to apprx 70 GW of demand over the next 15 years.

Nationally, U.S. demand is projected to climb about 16% in five years — a pace not seen since the 1980s. That means more stress on an already-congested transmission system — one still being managed with decades-old assumptions about heat, wind and demand.

Things are getting so tight in California for oil that Governor Gavin Newsome had a great Idea!  Why doesn’t Californian produce more oil? Yes, that Governor Gavin Newsom—the same guy who’s always waving the green energy flag—just pulled a surprise move. Apparently, the oil crunch in the Golden State is so real that even Newsom and his democrat buddies are huddling with oil industry brass to spark new production in Kern County according to Cal Matters. That’s right: the green governor is now eyeing a black gold lifeline, trying to dodge a full-blown supply disaster as affordability anxiety rattles Sacramento. Word is, lawmakers could push a deal through before their session wraps in mid-September, but negotiations are messy. Environmentalists? Let’s just say they’re not sending flowers.

This is a seismic shift as California dreams of a carbon-free future, but reality is crashing the party. High prices, tough technology limits, and good old political wrangling are forcing Team California to rethink those bold climate targets. And don’t miss the federal drama! Former President Trump and Capitol Hill Republicans are swinging back, gutting state mandates for gas car phase-outs and slicing up renewable energy tax breaks. The energy chess game is getting wild.

State Senator Henry Stern, a Democrat from Calabasas who once championed keeping California’s oil in the ground, now admits it’s time to rethink the purity test on climate action: “We all need to kind of evolve. Maybe that’s just the lesson on climate. There’s not really a purity test on this. It’s not like civil rights.” Stern’s got history—he helped write the laws that put buffer zones around oil wells and cracked down on fracking. But these days, he’s warning against California following Europe’s lead, where Green parties got hammered at the polls for pushing too hard, too fast.

Instead of trying to save the world from what they used to tell us was a systemic threat to humanity, I guess it’s not it’s threatening when your poll numbers go down.

Bottom line: California’s energy ambitions are colliding head-on with economic and political reality. Stay tuned, because this story’s just heating up!

And let me tell you, the energy companies and the producers in California don’t trust Newsome! Sources that I’ve talked to in the refining front and the production front all say that they are viewing any outreach by Gavin Newsom with a lot of skepticism because they don’t believe him. They believe as soon as the poll numbers shift, so will his support for green energy. In the meantime California is a mess and countries like New Jersey want to follow suit.

Gas spreads are switched into the winter blends of gasoline. I hate to tell you that but winter might be coming. Kids are going back to school and gasoline demand will slip but the heating and oil crack spread continues to look very solid at these levels. Going into winter both the heating oil cracks and the gasoline cracks should look pretty good from these levels.

Natural gas on the other hand is still going to be influenced by weather. Production for natural gas is extremely high, hitting near records here in the United States. According to some reports and how the weather is going to impact us it’s going to be huge for the natural gas market. Hurricanes can hurt demand and keep supply backed up but at the same time it can shut down production.

Fox Weather is reporting from Cape Hatteras, N.C. – Millions of people along the East Coast have been advised to prepare for impacts from Hurricane Erin, as the powerful Category 2 hurricane continues its journey across the Atlantic and approaches the U.S. this week. Hurricane Erin is not expected to make landfall in the United States. However, the storm’s outer bands could sweep the North Carolina coastline with tropical-storm-force winds and heavy rain as it passes by the Outer Banks. Officials said that with the forecast showing the potential for tropical-storm-force winds, dangerous surf with waves of 15-20 feet at local beaches, flooding of roads and neighborhoods and rip currents along the Outer Banks. Officials in some counties announced evacuation orders over the weekend. Hyde County declared a local state of emergency for Ocracoke Island, and a mandatory evacuation order was issued for visitors on Sunday night and for residents on Tuesday morning.

Dare County also declared a state of emergency and ordered the evacuation of Hatteras Island, which includes the communities of Rodanthe, Waves, Salvo, Avon, Buxton, Frisco and Hatteras. Visitors began to evacuate on Monday, and residents started their evacuation on Tuesday morning.

Download the Fox Weather ap to stay up with the storm! Stay tuned to the Fox Business.

Open your futures and options on futures trading account. Call Phil Flynn at 888-264-5665 or email me at pflynn@pricegroup.com.