Phil Flynn
Phil Flynn is writer of The Energy Report, a daily market commentary discussing oil, the Middle East, American government, economics, and their effects on the world's energies markets, as well as other commodity markets. Contact Mr. Flynn at (888) 264-5665
Oil Traders Bet on Ceasefire. The Energy Report 08/18/2025
The oil market is edging higher as traders have recorded the first ever short position in West Texas Intermediate, with the overall net long position down 4,000 in Brent crude to around 207,000, according to a report by Ole Hanson. This comes as the market appears optimistic that President Trump will succeed in his talks with Vladimir Putin and secure a ceasefire deal. Yet, there has been no agreement so far, nor have there been new sanctions. Instead, the Trump administration is intensifying pressure on its trading partners.
Oil traders are feeling the tension as the market rises on the hope—yes, hope—that President Trump’s diplomatic efforts with Vladimir Putin will yield a ceasefire agreement for Ukraine. But as of now, there’s no deal. There are also no sanctions. Instead, the Trump Administration is ramping up the pressure on trading partners, and the energy market is closely watching every development.
Now, the U.S. is taking a firm stance with India: if India wants to be considered a strategic partner, it must demonstrate it. Actions speak louder than words, and at the moment, India’s ongoing purchases of Russian crude are raising concerns. White House trade adviser Peter Navarro has criticized India, noting that these purchases help fund Moscow’s war efforts. India, in turn, questions why it is being singled out, pointing out that the U.S. and EU still trade with Russia, albeit in different sectors.
Meanwhile, whispers about Putin’s potential peace plan for Ukraine are beginning to surface according to Reuters, with Ukrainian President Zelensky and European leaders set to meet with Trump on Monday. A peace deal could be a game changer for global energy flows. Let’s focus on the actual numbers. Russian crude shipments to Hungary have halted after a Ukrainian attack on the Druzhba pipeline transformer. Hungary remains heavily reliant on Russian energy, standing as a lone holdout in the EU and depending on that pipeline through Belarus and Ukraine.
For India, Russian oil processing in the June quarter was approximately 24%, up from 22% last year, and purchases are continuing for the September quarter. The discount on Russian crude is about $1.50 per barrel compared to the Dubai benchmark, according to Reuters.
China and India—longtime rivals—are quietly strengthening ties, as Trump’s unpredictable approach unsettles old alliances. Indian Prime Minister Modi is preparing for talks with Chinese President Xi Jinping, while China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi is scheduled to visit India to discuss border issues.
A planned visit by U.S. trade negotiators to New Delhi from August 25–29 was called off, according to a source over the weekend. This postpones discussions on a proposed trade agreement and dashes hopes for relief from additional U.S. tariffs on Indian goods from August 27.
White House adviser Peter Navarro criticized India’s purchases of Russian oil, stating that they support Moscow’s war in Ukraine and that India must reconsider its relations with Russia and China if it wants to be seen as a U.S. strategic partner. India’s Foreign Ministry has previously stated that the country is being unfairly singled out for buying Russian oil, while the United States and European Union continue to purchase other goods from Russia.
Natural gas prices remain lower even as storms rage. Fox Weather reported that, “Powerful Hurricane Erin restrengthened and became an extremely dangerous Category 4 hurricane as it continued its journey across the Atlantic, prompting officials in North Carolina to issue local states of emergency and forcing residents and visitors to evacuate some areas. Hurricane Erin, which became the first major hurricane of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, is no doubt going to be a storm for the history books. The powerful storm rapidly intensified over the weekend, going from a Category 1 hurricane to a catastrophic Category 5 hurricane with winds of 160 mph in a matter of hours.
Fox Weather also warns that, “Odds increase for next tropical system behind Hurricane Erin in Atlantic Ocean’s Main Development Region The National Hurricane Center tagged an area to watch in the tropical Atlantic that has a medium chance of development over the next seven days.
That storm, if it hits the Gulf of America, could stop natural gas free fall.
Download the Fox Weather App to keep up with the storms. Stay tuned to the Fox Business Network! Invested in you!
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Thanks,
Phil Flynn
Senior Market Analyst & Author of The Energy Report
Contributor to FOX Business Network
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