Softs Report 08/13/2025

COTTON
General Comments: Cotton was higher in response to the USDA WASDE reports that showed production of 13.214 million bales. uS ending stocks were estimated at 3.60 million bales, from 4.60 million last month. World stocks were estimated at 73.9 millijon bales, from 77.3 million lqadt month. Better weather is expected for the Delta and Southeast for the coming week as crop condition reports were mostly unchanged. The weekly export sales report showed weak demand once again, but demand was improved for the week. The economic news on Friday of weaker than expected jobs data from the Commerce Dept for the recent quarter caused the stock market and crude oil and grains to sell off. There are still reports of hotter and drier weather in West Texas. There are still ideas that growing conditions are generally good. There are still reports of better weather in Texas and into the Southeast and demand concerns caused by the tariff wars are still around. It is starting to turn dry in west Texas again, however. Condition is rated behind last year. The monsoon in India is good and a good production there is possible.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 65.90, 64.30, and 63.00 December, with resistance of 67.80, 68.30 and 69.00 December.

All cotton planted area totaled 9.28 million acres, down 8 percent from the previous forecast and down 17 percent from 2024. All cotton area harvested is forecast at 7.36 million acres, down 6 percent from 2024. All cotton production is forecast at 13.2 million 480-pound bales, down 8 percent from 2024. Based on conditions as of August 1, yields are expected to average 862 pounds per harvested acre, down 24 pounds from 2024. Upland cotton production is forecast at 12.9 million 480-pound bales, down 8 percent from 2024. Pima cotton production is forecast at 364,000 bales, down 23 percent from 2024.

U.S. Cotton Supply and Use 1/
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2023/24 2024/25 Est. 2025/26 Proj. 2025/26 Proj.
Item Jul Aug
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Million Acres
Planted 10.23 11.18 10.12* 9.28**
Harvested 6.44 7.81 8.66* 7.36
Pounds
Yield per Harvested
Acre 899 886 809* 862**
Million 480 Pound Bales
Beginning Stocks 4.65 3.15 4.10 4.00
Production 12.07 14.41 14.60 13.21
Imports 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01
Supply, Total 16.72 17.57 18.71 17.22
Domestic Use 1.85 1.70 1.70 1.70
Exports, Total 11.75 11.90 12.50 12.00
Use, Total 13.60 13.60 14.20 13.70
Unaccounted 2/ -0.03 -0.03 -0.10 -0.08
Ending Stocks 3.15 4.00 4.60 3.60
Avg. Farm Price 3/ 76.1 63.0 62.0 64.0
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WASDE – 663 – 18 August 2025

World Cotton Supply and Use 1/
(Million 480-Pound Bales)
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Supply Use
Region Beginning Produc- Loss Ending
Stocks tion Imports Domestic Exports 2/ Stocks
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2025/26 Proj.
World
Jul 76.78 118.42 44.68 118.12 44.69 -0.25 77.32
Aug 75.05 116.62 43.58 117.99 43.59 -0.23 73.91
World Less China
Jul 39.94 87.42 38.88 81.62 44.61 -0.25 40.25
Aug 39.25 85.12 38.28 80.49 43.51 -0.23 38.89
United States
Jul 4.10 14.60 0.01 1.70 12.50 -0.10 4.60
Aug 4.00 13.21 0.01 1.70 12.00 -0.08 3.60
Total Foreign
Jul 72.68 103.82 44.68 116.42 32.19 -0.15 72.72
Aug 71.05 103.41 43.58 116.29 31.59 -0.15 70.31
Major Exporters 4/
Jul 26.17 58.65 4.45 35.52 28.18 -0.15 25.71
Aug 25.80 58.19 4.35 34.92 28.00 -0.15 25.55
Major Importers 8/
Jul 44.13 41.84 37.09 76.08 2.47 0.00 44.51
Aug 43.02 42.34 36.12 76.60 2.44 0.00 42.43
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WASDE – 663 – 28 August 2025

FCOJ
General Comments: Futures were higher yesterday on reports of freezing temperatures in production areas of Brazil, the major exporter of FCOJ to the US and the world. Trends are turning up on the daily charts. Selling was seen in response to news that President Trump had decided to remove OJ from the punishing tariffs on Brazil it announced earlier in the year. So, the actions by the president have created major highs and lows in the market. Development conditions are good in Florida now with daily rounds of showers. The poor production potential for the crops comes from weather but also the greening disease that has caused many Florida and closed near the lows of the week producers to lose trees.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 223.00, 216.00, and 207.00 September, with resistance at 250.00, 272.00, and 283.00 September.

COFFEE
General Comments: New York and London were both lower yesterday, with New York posting the losses even with reports of freezing temperatures near Coffee areas of Brazil. Loss reports were not confirmed. Robusta is still more available to the market and with Brazil looking for new markets not in the US for its Coffee due to the US tariffs imposed on imports from Brazil. Arabica has been weaker recently also on the current good weather in Brazil. Prices had been dropping for several weeks and are much more moderate than before as supplies available to the market have ticked up. The Brazil Robusta harvest continues, and Indonesia continues to harvest. Vietnam is done with its harvest and domestic price were firm last week. The Brazil Arabica harvest is near the end and is expected to be less this year.
Overnight News: The ICO average price is 273.97 ct/lb.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up. Support is at 310.00, 299.00, and 284.00 September, and resistance is at 331.00, 334.00 and 339.00 September. Trends in London are up. Support is at 3530, 3440, and 3320 September, with resistance at 3750, 3960, and 4140 September.

SUGAR
General Comments: Both markets were higher yesterday in what appeared to be follow through short covering tied to reports of freezing temperatures in Sugarcane area of Brazil. Ideas are that the losses could be significant. There were ideas of less European production this year that could rally prices later in the year but have drawn no interest so far. Pakistan has issued a new international tender earlier in the week to buy 100,000 tons of White Sugar. Ideas of good supplies for the market from good growing conditions for cane and beets around the world continue. The South Center Brazil harvest is faster now amid drier conditions. Production in Center-South Brazil has also been strong. Good growing conditions are reported in India and Thailand after a fast start to the Monsoon season. Good rains are still reported in Thailand. Sugar prices in Brazil are now cheap enough that at least some refiners could increase ethanol production and cut back on Sugar production. However, the total recovered Sugar juice has been less in Brazil this year.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 1600, 1540, and 1500 October and resistance is at 1700, 1730, and 1750 October. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 449.00, 446.00, and 443.00 October, with resistance at 482.00, 500.00, and 506.00 October.

U.S. Sugar Supply and Use 1/
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2023/24 2024/25 Est. 2025/26 Proj. 2025/26 Proj.
Item Jul Aug
================================================================================
1000 Short Tons, Raw Value
Beginning Stocks 1843 2131 2132 2439
Production 2/ 9313 9386 9195 9428
Beet Sugar 5172 5415 5097 5266
Cane Sugar 4141 3971 4098 4162
Florida 2079 1927 2010 2008
Louisiana 2022 2044 2088 2154
Texas 40 0 0 0
Imports 3840 3202 2481 2457
TRQ 3/ 1788 1516 1419 1396
Other Program 4/ 300 325 200 200
Non-program 1752 1361 861 861
Mexico 521 497 439 439
High-tier tariff/other 1231 864 422 422
Total Supply 14995 14719 13808 14325
Exports 249 125 100 100
Deliveries 12534 12155 12065 12065
Food 12428 12045 11960 11960
Other 5/ 106 110 105 105
Miscellaneous 81 0 0 0
Total Use 12864 12280 12165 12165
Ending Stocks 2131 2439 1643 2160
Stocks to Use Ratio 16.6 19.9 13.5 17.8
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Mexico Sugar Supply and Use and High Fructose Corn Syrup Consumption 1/
================================================================================
Supply Use
Fiscal Beginning Produc- Imports Domestic Exports Ending
Year Stocks tion 2/ Stocks
================================================================================
1000 Metric Tons, Actual Weight
Sugar
2024/25 Est.
Jul 1418 4770 175 4459 806 1098
Aug 1418 4771 175 4459 840 1064
2025/26 Proj.
Jul 1098 5094 142 4569 684 1081
Aug 1064 5094 142 4569 650 1081
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WASDE – 663 – 17 August 2025

COCOA
General Comments: Both markets were higher yesterday on report of cold temperatures in Cocoa areas of Brazil. There are ideas that ome of the Cocoa was damagred. Demand ideas were down on Friday after the Swiss Chocolate Association said that the Trump tariffs would hurt sales by its members into the US. The President imposed a 34% tariff on Switzerland last week. There are still reports of increased production potential in other countries outside of West Africa, including Asia and Central America. The market anticipates good demand and less production from Ivory Coast and Ghana. Adequate soil moisture in Ivory Coast is fostering abundant flowering on trees, signaling a healthy October-to-March main crop.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up. Support is at 8670, 8510, and 8230 September, with resistance at 9320, 9450, and 9660 September. Trends in London are mixed up. Support is at 5560, 5310, and 4700 September, with resistance at 6010, 6160, and 6480 September.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322