Softs Report 08/04/2025

COTTON
General Comments: Cotton was lower last week and closed near the lows of the week as better weather is expected for the Delta and Southeast for the coming week as crop condition reports were mostly unchanged. The weekly export sales report showed weak demand once again. The economic news on Friday of weaker than expected jobs data from the Commerce Dept for the recent quarter caused the stock market and crude oil and grains to sell off. There are still reports of hotter and drier weather in West Texas. There are still ideas that growing conditions are generally good. There are still reports of better weather in Texas and into the Southeast and demand concerns caused by the tariff wars are still around. It is starting to turn dry in west Texas again, however. Condition is rated behind last year. The monsoon in India is good and a good production there is possible.
Overnight News: The USDA average price is now 66.88 ct/lb.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 66.20, 64.30, and 63.00 December, with resistance of 68.30, 69.10 and 69.50 December.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of July 29, 2025
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COTTON NO. 2 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #033661 Open Interest is 259,724
: Positions :
: 28,773 81,745 60,612 74,812 87,836 82,960 17,804 247,158 247,998: 12,566 11,726
: Changes from: July 22, 2025 (Change in open interest: 3,814) :
: -289 1,178 -127 3,526 691 690 1,614 3,799 3,356: 15 459
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 11.1 31.5 23.3 28.8 33.8 31.9 6.9 95.2 95.5: 4.8 4.5
: Total Traders: 335 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 85 114 87 76 61 46 23 258 238:
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FCOJ
General Comments: Futures were sharply lower to limit down on both Thursday and Friday on speculative selling. Trends are down. The selling came in response to news that President Trump had decided to remove OJ from the punishing tariffs on Brazil it announced earlier in the year. So, the actions by the president have created major highs and lows in the market. Development conditions are good in Florida now with daily rounds of showers. This could change in the next few weeks as hot weather is expected. The poor production potential for the crops comes from weather but also the greening disease that has caused many Florida and closed near the lows of the week producers to lose trees.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are down. Support is at 276.00, 272.00, and 264.00 September, with resistance at 283.00, 299.00, and 306.00 September.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of July 29, 2025
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
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FRZN CONCENTRATED ORANGE JUICE – ICE FUTURES U.S. (CONTRACTS OF 15,000 POUNDS) :
CFTC Code #040701 Open Interest is 10,395 :
: Positions :
: 2,872 6,801 527 0 129 2,326 54 6 1,479 212 1,636 :
: Changes from: July 22, 2025 :
: -101 -196 -30 0 5 289 -181 -12 -211 142 124 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 27.6 65.4 5.1 0.0 1.2 22.4 0.5 0.1 14.2 2.0 15.7 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 40 :
: 10 9 . 0 . 7 . . 9 5 8 :
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COFFEE
General Comments: New York and London were both lower last week, with selling seen on Friday on news of employment weakness in the US. The Commerce Dept said Friday that job growth was poor in the most recent quarter. In addition, comments from the USTR that Coffee and Cocoa might be able to be imported without tariffs were viewed as negative for prices. Robusta is still more available to the market and with Brazil looking for new markets not in the US for its Coffee due to the US tariffs imposed on imports from Brazil. Arabica has been weaker recently also on the current good weather in Brazil. Prices had been dropping for several weeks and are much more moderate than before as supplies available to the market have ticked up. The Brazil Robusta harvest continues, and Indonesia continues to harvest. Vietnam is done with its harvest and domestic price were firm last week. The Brazil Arabica harvest is near the end and is expected to be less this year.
Overnight News: The ICO average price is 249.12 ct/lb.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down. Support is at 286.00, 276.00, and 27000 September, and resistance is at 312.00, 316.00 and 321.00 September. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 3170, 3120, and 3060 September, with resistance at 3600, 3750, and 3950 September.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of July 29, 2025
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COFFEE C – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #083731 Open Interest is 200,444
: Positions :
: 29,842 13,833 69,156 49,652 99,075 44,177 11,115 192,827 193,179: 7,618 7,265
: Changes from: July 22, 2025 (Change in open interest: 3,458) :
: -953 39 3,375 -203 -1,725 976 1,174 3,195 2,863: 264 595
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 14.9 6.9 34.5 24.8 49.4 22.0 5.5 96.2 96.4: 3.8 3.6
: Total Traders: 325 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 91 67 104 88 98 44 24 274 250:
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SUGAR
General Comments: Both markets were lower last week on increasing fears about tariffs and the condition on the US economy and despite news of less sucrose found in Brazil Sugarcane. US job growth was reported to be poor in the most recent quarter according to the Commerce Dept. Ideas of good supplies for the market from good growing conditions for cane and beets around the world continue. The South Center Brazil harvest is faster now amid drier conditions. Production in Center-South Brazil has also been strong. Good growing conditions are reported in India and Thailand after a fast start to the Monsoon season. Good rains are still reported in Thailand. Sugar prices in Brazil are now cheap enough that at least some refiners could increase ethanol production and cut back on Sugar production. However, the total recovered Sugar juice has been less in Brazil this year.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 1600, 1540, and 1500 October and resistance is at 1700, 1730, and 1760 October. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 449.00, 446.00, and 440.00 October, with resistance at 500.00, 506.00, and 512.00 October.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of July 29, 2025
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SUGAR NO. 11 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #080732 Open Interest is 1,009,667
: Positions :
: 110,342 231,825 219,548 361,428 423,290 249,945 63,002 941,264 937,665: 68,403 72,001
: Changes from: July 22, 2025 (Change in open interest: 9,956) :
: -376 3,981 5,341 -1,650 5,506 3,931 -181 7,245 14,646: 2,711 -4,689
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 10.9 23.0 21.7 35.8 41.9 24.8 6.2 93.2 92.9: 6.8 7.1
: Total Traders: 247 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 59 69 86 65 63 37 21 212 192:
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COCOA
General Comments: New York closed a little lower and London was slightly higher last week as buying from more stressful weather reported for West Africa remained. News of weak employment data for the most recent quarter from the Commerce Dept and from the USTR noting that tariffs could be lifted on Cocoa and Coffee imports hurt US prices on Friday, but futures in both markets have been in a tight range all week. There are still reports of increased production potential in other countries outside of West Africa, including Asia and Central America. The market anticipates good demand and less production from Ivory Coast and Ghana. Adequate soil moisture in Ivory Coast is fostering abundant flowering on trees, signaling a healthy October-to-March main crop despite mainly below-average rain in most of the main growing regions last week. Temperatures have turned colder in West Africa and this could be a danger to crops.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 7910, 7840, and 7500 September, with resistance at 8720, 8900, and 9390 September. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 5230, 4970, and 4700 September, with resistance at 5810, 5990, and 6160 September.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of July 29, 2025
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COCOA – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #073732 Open Interest is 116,109
: Positions :
: 12,731 12,451 33,664 35,723 57,124 23,763 5,831 105,881 109,069: 10,228 7,040
: Changes from: July 22, 2025 (Change in open interest: 1,214) :
: 160 69 -215 -1,555 510 3,258 508 1,647 872: -433 342
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 11.0 10.7 29.0 30.8 49.2 20.5 5.0 91.2 93.9: 8.8 6.1
: Total Traders: 163 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 42 48 58 34 35 30 16 143 121:
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Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322