Softs Report 08/01/2025

DJ Lutnick Leaves Door Open For Coffee and Cocoa Exemptions — Market Talk
0917 ET – Tariffs levied on countries like Brazil exempted a number of goods, including industrial metals and energy. But tariffs notably have not contained any exemptions for soft commodities like cocoa and coffee–goods that can’t be grown in the U.S. due to a lack of the proper climate. That may soon change, says Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick. In an appearance on CNBC this week, Lutnick said President Trump would consider zero tariffs on natural resources that can’t be produced domestically. No specifics were offered, but Lutnick says this could happen if individual deals are reached with producing countries like Brazil and the Ivory Coast. Coffee on the ICE is down 0.2%, and ICE cocoa is down 0.9%. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)

COTTON
General Comments: Cotton was lower again yesterday after trading higher early in the session as better weather is expected for the Delta and Southeast for the coming week as crop condition reports were mostly unchanged. The weekly export sales report showed weak demand once again. There are still reports of hotter and drier weather in West Texas. There are still ideas that growing conditions are generally good. There are still reports of better weather in Texas and into the Southeast and demand concerns caused by the tariff wars are still around. It is starting to turn dry in west Texas again, however. Condition is rated behind last year. The monsoon in India is good and a good production there is possible.
Overnight News: The USDA average price is now 66.88 ct/lb.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 67.00, 66.20, and 64.30 December, with resistance of 69.90, 70.50 and 70.90 December.

FCOJ
General Comments: Futures were sharply lower to limit down again yesterday on speculative selling. Trends are down. The selling came in response to news that President Trump had decided to remove OJ from the punishing tariffs on Brazil it announced earlier in the year. So, the actions by the president have created major highs and lows in the market. Development conditions are good in Florida now with daily rounds of showers. This could change in the next few weeks as hot weather is expected. The poor production potential for the crops comes from weather but also the greening disease that has caused many Florida producers to lose trees.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are down. Support is at 276.00, 272.00, and 264.00 September, with resistance at 283.00, 299.00, and 306.00 September.

COFFEE
General Comments: New York was higher and London was lower yesterday in consolidation trading. The price action wa the opposite of the action of Wednesday. Robusta is still more available to the market and with Brazil looking for new markets not in the US for its Coffee due to the US tariffs imposed on imports from Brazil. Arabica has been weaker recently also on the current good weather in Brazil. Prices had been dropping for several weeks and are much more moderate than before as supplies available to the market have ticked up, but that has changed in the US with the tariffs. Much less Coffee from Brazil is now expected to enter the US market. The Brazil Robusta harvest continues, and Indonesia continues to harvest. Vietnam is done with its harvest and domestic price were firm last week. The Brazil Arabica harvest is near the end and is expected to be less this year. It is turning cold in Brazil this week, but temperatures should remain above damaging levels.
Overnight News: The ICO average price is 255.67 ct/lb.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down. Support is at 286.00, 276.00, and 27000 September, and resistance is at 312.00, 316.00 and 321.00 September. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 3170, 3120, and 3060 September, with resistance at 3600, 3750, and 3950 September.

SUGAR
General Comments: Both markets were lower again yesterday despite news of less sucrose found in Brazil Sugarcane and as ideas of good supplies for the market from good growing conditions for cane and beets around the world continue. The South Center Brazil harvest is faster now amid drier conditions. Production in Center-South Brazil has also been strong. Good growing conditions are reported in India and Thailand after a fast start to the Monsoon season. Good rains are still reported in Thailand. Sugar prices in Brazil are now cheap enough that at least some refiners could increase ethanol production and cut back on Sugar production. However, the total recovered Sugar juice has been less in Brazil this year.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 1600, 1540, and 1500 October and resistance is at 1700, 1730, and 1760 October. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 465.00, 446.00, and 449.00 October, with resistance at 500.00, 506.00, and 512.00 October.

COCOA
General Comments: New York and London were higher yesterday as buying from more stressful weather reported for West Africa remained. There are still reports of increased production potential in other countries outside of West Africa, including Asia and Central America. The market anticipates good demand and less production from Ivory Coast and Ghana. Adequate soil moisture in Ivory Coast is fostering abundant flowering on trees, signaling a healthy October-to-March main crop despite mainly below-average rain in most of the main growing regions last week. Temperatures have turned colder in West Africa and this could be a danger zto crops.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 7910, 7840, and 7500 September, with resistance at 8720, 8900, and 9390 September. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 5230, 4970, and 4700 September, with resistance at 5810, 5990, and 6160 September.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322