Softs Report 07/29/2025

COTTON
General Comments: Cotton was a little higher yesterday in light volume trading. There are still reports of hotter and drier weather in West Texas. There are still ideas that growing conditions are generally good. Export sales were once again on the weak side last week. There are still reports of better weather in Texas and into the Southeast and demand concerns caused by the tariff wars are still around. It is starting to turn dry in west Texas again, however. Condition is rated behind last year. The monsoon in India is good and a good production there is possible.
Overnight News: The USDA average price is now 68.71 ct/lb.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 67.00, 66.20, and 64.30 December, with resistance of 69.90, 70.50 and 70.90 December.

This Week Last Week Last Year Average
Cotton Squaring 80 71 88 83
Cotton Setting Bolls 55 33 52 46
Very Poor Poor Fair Good Excellent
Cotton This Week 7 7 31 44 11
Cotton Last Week 6 7 30 48 9
Cotton Last Year 9 13 29 40 9

FCOJ
General Comments: Futures were higher again yesterday on speculative buying. News that President Trump will impose 50% tariffs on Brazil is still supporting prices. Brazil is the major exporter of FCOJ and sells a lot into the US. Trends are up. Development conditions are good in Florida now with daily rounds of showers. This could change in the next few weeks as hot weather is expected. The poor production potential for the crops comes from weather but also the greening disease that has caused many Florida producers to lose trees. Neilsen said on Friday that prices for a gallon of Orange Juice at the retail level was estimated at 11.68, up 16.5% for the calendar year and 20% from the same month a year ago.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 306.00, 292.00, and 289.00 September, with resistance at 344.00, 350.00, and 356.00 September.

COFFEE
General Comments: New York and London were higher yesterday although with Robusta more available to the market and with Brazil looking for new markets not in the US for its Coffee due to the US tariffs imposed on imports from Brazil. Arabica has been weaker recently also on the current good weather in Brazil. Prices had been dropping for several weeks and are much more moderate than before as supplies available to the market have ticked up, but that has changed in the US with the tariffs. Much less Coffee from Brazil is now expected to enter the US market. The Brazil Robusta harvest continues, and Indonesia continues to harvest. Vietnam is done with its harvest and domestic price were firm last week. The Brazil Arabica harvest is near the end and is expected to be less this year. It is turning cold in Brazil this week.
Overnight News: The ICO average price is 260.04 ct/lb.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down. Support is at 286.00, 276.00, and 27000 September, and resistance is at 312.00, 316.00 and 321.00 September. Trends in London are mixed to down. Support is at 3170, 3120, and 3060 September, with resistance at 3400, 3600, and 3750 September.

SUGAR
General Comments: Both markets were higher yesterday on ideas of a potential to greatly increase Sugar demand inside the US with the changes to Coke, but despite ideas of good supplies for the market from good growing conditions for cane and beets around the world continue. The South Center Brazil harvest is faster now amid drier conditions. Production in Center-South Brazil has also been strong. Good growing conditions are reported in India and Thailand after a fast start to the Monsoon season. Good rains are still reported in Thailand. Sugar prices in Brazil are now cheap enough that at least some refiners could increase ethanol production and cut back on Sugar production. However, the total recovered Sugar juice has been less in Brazil this year.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 1600, 1540, and 1500 October and resistance is at 1700, 1730, and 1760 October. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 465.00, 446.00, and 449.00 October, with resistance at 500.00, 506.00, and 512.00 October.

COCOA
General Comments: New York and London were higher yesterday as futures continued to rally away from lows set by news of weakening demand from the the poor grind data from Europe and Asia. The North American grind showed a small reduction. There are still reports of increased production potential in other countries outside of West Africa, including Asia and Central America. The market anticipates good demand and less production from Ivory Coast and Ghana. Adequate soil moisture in Ivory Coast is fostering abundant flowering on trees, signaling a healthy October-to-March main crop despite mainly below-average rain in most of the main growing regions last week. Temperatures have turned colder in West Africa and this could be a danger zto crops.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 7910, 7840, and 7500 September, with resistance at 8630, 8900, and 9390 September. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 5230, 4970, and 4700 September, with resistance at 5600, 5810, and 5990 September.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322