Life SupportThis week saw the grains with pressure as the sign of life from last week may have been just a dead cat bounce. The revert back to weakness this week has old crop corn near the $4 level and beans at $10. The wheat is also near or on contracts lows. While the grains are not yet declared dead, the bulls are sitting on life support right now. With the cattle market near all time highs and feeder hitting all time highs this week the bears appear to be near dead.
Corn gave back much of the previous week’s losses, as September held $4 to close down 9 cents, with December losing 8 ¾ cents. Monday’s Crop Progress report showed the US corn crop at 56% silking as of July 20, with 14% in the dough stage. Ratings were steady again this week at 74% good/excellent and 385 on the Brugler500 index. EIA’s weekly ethanol production slipped back 9,000 barrels per day in the week ending on July 18 at 1.078 million barrels per day. Stocks of ethanol were building, up 809,000 barrels to 24.444 million barrels. Thursday’s Export Sales report tallied 2024/25 corn bookings at 643,060 MT for the week that ended on July 17, with new crop at 733,939 MT. Old crop commitments are now 100% of the USDA export projection and behind the average pace of 102% at 70.11 MMT. Spec funds added 2,610 contracts to their net short position as of Tuesday to 177,365 contracts.
The wheat complex was weaker this week across the three markets. Chicago SRW futures were down 8 cents, with the September KC HRW contract showing just 2 ½ cent loss. MPLS spring wheat was again the leader to the bear side, with September down another 10 ¾ cents. Crop Progress data showed 73% of the winter wheat harvest completed as of Sunday, 1 point ahead of normal. The US spring wheat crop was 87% headed, with ratings slipping back 2% to 52% good/excellent, with a Brugler500 index at 338, down 7 points. The spring wheat quality tour through North Dakota showed an estimated yield at 49 bpa, down from the 54.5 bpa last year on the tour. Weekly Export Sales report tallied US wheat 2025/26 business slipping to 712,179 MT, marketing year high. Shipped and unshipped sales so far in the marketing year are 8.984 MMT, 39% of the USDA export projection and ahead of the 37% average pace. Chicago wheat specs cut back 8,446 contracts from their net short as of Tuesday to 52,041 contracts. In KC wheat, they trimmed their net short by 4,043 contracts to 43,959 contracts by July 22.
Soybeans were down 29 cents in the August contract this week, with November slipping 14 ¾ cents. The product values added some mixed opinions, with August meal $6.20/ton lower. August bean oil was 67 points higher this week. Weekly NASS data showed 62% of the US soybean crop blooming by 7/20 and 26% setting pods. Condition ratings were back down 2 percentage points to 68% good/excellent this week, with the Brugler500 index down 3 at 373. Export Sales data showed 2024/25 soybean bookings slipping again to 160,872 MT in the week of July 17. New crop business was back down to 116,800 MT. Soybean commitments for 2024/25 are now 50.81 MMT, 100% of the USDA estimate and behind the 102% average sales pace. CFTC data indicated managed money cutting back their fresh net short by 21,412 contracts as of July 22, to 10,866 contracts.
Live cattle futures were pushing higher and closing in on all time highs this week up $2.92. Cash trade was firm to $1 higher with the South at $230-231 and $240-242 in the North. Feeders saw some gains, up $7.37 and hitting new all-time highs. The CME Feeder Cattle Index was back up $6.55 week/week to $328.83. Wholesale boxed beef pressure continued this week, as Choice was down another $6.87 (-1.8%) to $366.68, while Select was $6.62 (-1.9%) lower to $344.87. Weekly beef production was down 2.6% from last week and 7.2% below the same week last year at 474.2 million lbs. Production year to date is 3.4% lower on a 6.5% decline in slaughter. Cattle on Feed data showed June placements down 7.86% from last year at 1.411 million head and well below estimates. Marketings were 1.707 million head and 4.42% below June 2024. July 1 on feed was tallied at 11.195 million head, down 0.96% from a year ago. The bi-annual July Cattle Inventory report was released after a hiatus last year, with July 1 beef cow inventory down 1.2% from 2023 at 28.65 million head. Beef replacement heifers were 5.1% below 2023 at 3.7 million head. June beef stocks were tallied at 395.678 million lbs according to Cold Storage data. That was a 2.98% decline from May and 0.92% below last year.
Hogs added to the bounce from the week prior with a $2.22 gain this week. The CME Lean Hog Index was $2.32 higher this week at 109.95 as of July 23. USDA’s Pork Carcass Cutout saw some modest strength this week, up $1.07 (0.9%) to $118.86/cwt. Just the butt, picnic, and rib were lower on the week, as the ham was up $4.41. Weekly pork production was down 0.5% from last week and 4.1% below the same week last year. Pork production year to date is down 2% on a 2.2% drop in slaughter. Export Sales data showed 17,003 MT of pork sold in the week ending on July 17. Shipments were slightly improved from last week, up 27,573 MT. Monthly Cold Storage data from USDA showed a total of 422.29 million lbs of pork stocks on hand as of June 30. That was down 6.32% from May and 11.1% below last year. Weekly CFTC data showed managed money trimming another 4,186 contracts from their net long position as of Tuesday to 110,407 contracts.
Cotton saw some weakness this week as December was down 45 points. NASS Crop Progress data showed a total of 75% of the US cotton crop has been squared as of 7/20 and 33% setting bolls. Condition ratings were 57% good/excellent, up 3%, or 8 points higher on the Brugler500 index at 347. Weekly Export Sales data showed 32,748 RB in net reductions for old cotton crop in the week ending on 7/17. New crop saw net sales of 132,624 RB. Shipments were 184,849 RB. Old crop cotton export commitments are 107% of USDA’s estimate at 11.738 million RB, behind the 116% average pace. The FSA Adjusted World Price for cotton was up 23 points this week, to 54.95 cents/lb. Commitment of Traders data showed spec traders adding a total of 1,415 contracts to their net short position as of July 22 to a net 39,879 contracts.
Market Watch
Next week starts with the weekly Export Inspections and Crop Progress reports on Monday, per the usual schedule. The weekly EIA Petroleum Status Report will be out on Wednesday, with the Fed releasing their next rate decision after a two day meeting that afternoon and most expecting no changes. Thursday morning will see the release of the Export Sales report, with PCE data also being released. Thursday is also first notice day for August soybean complex futures. August live cattle options also expire on Friday. The monthly USDA Grain Crushing, Fats & Oils, and Cotton Systems reports will be released that afternoon.
Tech Talk: November Soybeans
The bulls are far from out of the woods. After creeping back above the Head & Shoulders neckline last week, futures failed to fill the gap at $10.44 ¼ last Friday. We were within a penny. Normally when the gap is defended like that, it is bearish. And with 4 of the 5 days following seeing selling, there’s few arguments against that. This Friday’s action took things back below the 18-day moving average at $10.21, which had been sitting a support. The H&S is still active with a count at $9.51 ¾, with it taking a trade above $10.585 to invalidate it. All we got to was the downtrend line, now at $10.33. Stochastics have crossed back bearish in neutral, with round number support at $10 and uptrend support at $9.81 ¾.
There is a risk of loss in futures and options trading. Similar risks exist for cash commodity producers. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Copyright 2025 Brugler Marketing & Management. All rights reserved.
Life Support. Ag Marketing Report 07/28/2025
Life SupportThis week saw the grains with pressure as the sign of life from last week may have been just a dead cat bounce. The revert back to weakness this week has old crop corn near the $4 level and beans at $10. The wheat is also near or on contracts lows. While the grains are not yet declared dead, the bulls are sitting on life support right now. With the cattle market near all time highs and feeder hitting all time highs this week the bears appear to be near dead.
Corn gave back much of the previous week’s losses, as September held $4 to close down 9 cents, with December losing 8 ¾ cents. Monday’s Crop Progress report showed the US corn crop at 56% silking as of July 20, with 14% in the dough stage. Ratings were steady again this week at 74% good/excellent and 385 on the Brugler500 index. EIA’s weekly ethanol production slipped back 9,000 barrels per day in the week ending on July 18 at 1.078 million barrels per day. Stocks of ethanol were building, up 809,000 barrels to 24.444 million barrels. Thursday’s Export Sales report tallied 2024/25 corn bookings at 643,060 MT for the week that ended on July 17, with new crop at 733,939 MT. Old crop commitments are now 100% of the USDA export projection and behind the average pace of 102% at 70.11 MMT. Spec funds added 2,610 contracts to their net short position as of Tuesday to 177,365 contracts.
The wheat complex was weaker this week across the three markets. Chicago SRW futures were down 8 cents, with the September KC HRW contract showing just 2 ½ cent loss. MPLS spring wheat was again the leader to the bear side, with September down another 10 ¾ cents. Crop Progress data showed 73% of the winter wheat harvest completed as of Sunday, 1 point ahead of normal. The US spring wheat crop was 87% headed, with ratings slipping back 2% to 52% good/excellent, with a Brugler500 index at 338, down 7 points. The spring wheat quality tour through North Dakota showed an estimated yield at 49 bpa, down from the 54.5 bpa last year on the tour. Weekly Export Sales report tallied US wheat 2025/26 business slipping to 712,179 MT, marketing year high. Shipped and unshipped sales so far in the marketing year are 8.984 MMT, 39% of the USDA export projection and ahead of the 37% average pace. Chicago wheat specs cut back 8,446 contracts from their net short as of Tuesday to 52,041 contracts. In KC wheat, they trimmed their net short by 4,043 contracts to 43,959 contracts by July 22.
Soybeans were down 29 cents in the August contract this week, with November slipping 14 ¾ cents. The product values added some mixed opinions, with August meal $6.20/ton lower. August bean oil was 67 points higher this week. Weekly NASS data showed 62% of the US soybean crop blooming by 7/20 and 26% setting pods. Condition ratings were back down 2 percentage points to 68% good/excellent this week, with the Brugler500 index down 3 at 373. Export Sales data showed 2024/25 soybean bookings slipping again to 160,872 MT in the week of July 17. New crop business was back down to 116,800 MT. Soybean commitments for 2024/25 are now 50.81 MMT, 100% of the USDA estimate and behind the 102% average sales pace. CFTC data indicated managed money cutting back their fresh net short by 21,412 contracts as of July 22, to 10,866 contracts.
Live cattle futures were pushing higher and closing in on all time highs this week up $2.92. Cash trade was firm to $1 higher with the South at $230-231 and $240-242 in the North. Feeders saw some gains, up $7.37 and hitting new all-time highs. The CME Feeder Cattle Index was back up $6.55 week/week to $328.83. Wholesale boxed beef pressure continued this week, as Choice was down another $6.87 (-1.8%) to $366.68, while Select was $6.62 (-1.9%) lower to $344.87. Weekly beef production was down 2.6% from last week and 7.2% below the same week last year at 474.2 million lbs. Production year to date is 3.4% lower on a 6.5% decline in slaughter. Cattle on Feed data showed June placements down 7.86% from last year at 1.411 million head and well below estimates. Marketings were 1.707 million head and 4.42% below June 2024. July 1 on feed was tallied at 11.195 million head, down 0.96% from a year ago. The bi-annual July Cattle Inventory report was released after a hiatus last year, with July 1 beef cow inventory down 1.2% from 2023 at 28.65 million head. Beef replacement heifers were 5.1% below 2023 at 3.7 million head. June beef stocks were tallied at 395.678 million lbs according to Cold Storage data. That was a 2.98% decline from May and 0.92% below last year.
Hogs added to the bounce from the week prior with a $2.22 gain this week. The CME Lean Hog Index was $2.32 higher this week at 109.95 as of July 23. USDA’s Pork Carcass Cutout saw some modest strength this week, up $1.07 (0.9%) to $118.86/cwt. Just the butt, picnic, and rib were lower on the week, as the ham was up $4.41. Weekly pork production was down 0.5% from last week and 4.1% below the same week last year. Pork production year to date is down 2% on a 2.2% drop in slaughter. Export Sales data showed 17,003 MT of pork sold in the week ending on July 17. Shipments were slightly improved from last week, up 27,573 MT. Monthly Cold Storage data from USDA showed a total of 422.29 million lbs of pork stocks on hand as of June 30. That was down 6.32% from May and 11.1% below last year. Weekly CFTC data showed managed money trimming another 4,186 contracts from their net long position as of Tuesday to 110,407 contracts.
Cotton saw some weakness this week as December was down 45 points. NASS Crop Progress data showed a total of 75% of the US cotton crop has been squared as of 7/20 and 33% setting bolls. Condition ratings were 57% good/excellent, up 3%, or 8 points higher on the Brugler500 index at 347. Weekly Export Sales data showed 32,748 RB in net reductions for old cotton crop in the week ending on 7/17. New crop saw net sales of 132,624 RB. Shipments were 184,849 RB. Old crop cotton export commitments are 107% of USDA’s estimate at 11.738 million RB, behind the 116% average pace. The FSA Adjusted World Price for cotton was up 23 points this week, to 54.95 cents/lb. Commitment of Traders data showed spec traders adding a total of 1,415 contracts to their net short position as of July 22 to a net 39,879 contracts.
Market Watch
Next week starts with the weekly Export Inspections and Crop Progress reports on Monday, per the usual schedule. The weekly EIA Petroleum Status Report will be out on Wednesday, with the Fed releasing their next rate decision after a two day meeting that afternoon and most expecting no changes. Thursday morning will see the release of the Export Sales report, with PCE data also being released. Thursday is also first notice day for August soybean complex futures. August live cattle options also expire on Friday. The monthly USDA Grain Crushing, Fats & Oils, and Cotton Systems reports will be released that afternoon.
Tech Talk: November Soybeans
The bulls are far from out of the woods. After creeping back above the Head & Shoulders neckline last week, futures failed to fill the gap at $10.44 ¼ last Friday. We were within a penny. Normally when the gap is defended like that, it is bearish. And with 4 of the 5 days following seeing selling, there’s few arguments against that. This Friday’s action took things back below the 18-day moving average at $10.21, which had been sitting a support. The H&S is still active with a count at $9.51 ¾, with it taking a trade above $10.585 to invalidate it. All we got to was the downtrend line, now at $10.33. Stochastics have crossed back bearish in neutral, with round number support at $10 and uptrend support at $9.81 ¾.
There is a risk of loss in futures and options trading. Similar risks exist for cash commodity producers. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Copyright 2025 Brugler Marketing & Management. All rights reserved.