Oil For Prisoners. The Energy Report 07/25/2025

The Wall Street Journal, in an exclusive, revealed that Chevron is set to resume oil production in Venezuela, thanks to new discussions involving President Trump. This follows a positive step forward—a prisoner exchange that brought home all ten Americans previously held by the Venezuelan government just last week. People close to the talks explained that Chevron will be operating in Venezuela without paying royalties or taxes to the Maduro regime, though the finer details are still being worked out.

The White House hasn’t commented yet. Bill Turenne, a spokesperson for Chevron emphasized, “Chevron conducts its business globally in compliance with applicable laws and regulations, as well as the sanctions frameworks established by the U.S. government, including those relating to Venezuela.” Earlier this year,  as reported by WSJ,  the Trump Administration decided to revoke Chevron’s license—which had been granted during the Biden administration—allowing them to produce oil in Venezuela.

According to OPEC, Venezuela’s oil output held steady at between 900,000 and 1 million barrels a day in June, following the pause by U.S. companies. Experts note that Venezuela has been sending some of its oil to China, often routing it through transshipment points like Malaysia, even as the White House warned about possible tariffs of up to 25% for countries importing Venezuelan oil earlier this year.

At the same time the release of Venezuelan oil is actually a good thing as diesel inventories in the United states are continuing to be very tight raising concerns about a potential price spike this winter those concerns were alleviated a little bit in this week’s report where inventories the increase more than expected but because of the global tightness of supply the ability for US refiners to get their hands on Venezuela oil should be a net positive. This may also be necessary because Europe plans to impose stricter sanctions on Russian oil, which is heavy and produces significant amounts of diesel.

Bloomberg News reported that European Union measures to restrict imports of Russian fuel and surging supplies of lighter crude are driving diesel up prices across the world, the boss of Europe’s largest oil refiner said. Diesel futures in Europe have surged at times in recent weeks, touching the equivalent of $110 a barrel. That’s in part because traders are having to find supplies from further afield since a ban on Russian imports came into effect, Patrick Pouyanne, Chief Executive Officer of TotalEnergies SE said on the company’s second-quarter earnings call. “We think that stronger diesel prices will become a persistent feature on the global market,” he said. “The sources of diesels are now coming from the Middle East or from US refineries further away, so it has increased the cost.”

Overnight t it looks like the oil market is getting a bit of a pep in its step again! Prices are starting to bounce back as products follow suit, and the overall mood is upbeat. With the U.S. economy performing remarkably well, there’s an air of optimism in the air—especially as new trade deals could open the door to even more energy demand. If these agreements come through, get ready for the U.S. to use even more oil, fueling growth and opportunities across the board.

All the math here it’s about the economy the unfounded concerns of the tariff talk would cause inflation seems to be going away and we’re facing the reality that President Trump’s policies are creating an environment that is going to increase energy demand in the United states and all of that energy demand we’re going to create economic growth and even intelligence. Let’s face it—it’s all about the economy! Those big worries that tariffs would send prices sky-high? Looks like they’re taking a back seat. What we’re actually seeing is that the policies rolling out are sparking more energy demand in the U.S., and that means even more economic growth on the horizon. More energy, more action, more good times ahead.All the investment in artificial intelligence is also supporting the long-term demand outlook as well.

Natural gas is trying to get a bit of a bid here after getting obliterated pretty much all week. It could be because we’ve got a slightly bullish report for week over week. The Energy Information Administration said that, “Working gas in storage hit 3,075 Bcf as of Friday, July 18, 2025—that’s a jump of 23 Bcf from last week. While that’s 153 Bcf less than this time last year, it’s still 171 Bcf above the five-year average of 2,904 Bcf. In other words, at 3,075 Bcf, total working gas is sitting comfortably within the five-year historical range.

After a somewhat positive weekly report, demand may rise due to higher temperatures, but attention remains on a potential tropical system that is developing in the Gulf of America off of Texas from Galveston all the way into Louisiana. Fox Weather noted that a Gulf disturbance is causing heavy downpours, with Hurricane Hunters scheduled to investigate on Friday. The National Hurricane Center reports that, similar to Invest 93L earlier this month, a low-pressure trough in the Gulf is generating widespread disorganized showers and storms. Traders should be downloading the Fox Weather app to keep an eye on this.

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