Softs Report 07/25/2025

MORNING SOFTS COMMENTS

COTTON
General Comments: Cotton was higher yesterday and tested recent highs on reports of hotter and drier weather in West Texas. There are sztill ideas that growing conditions are generally good. Export sales were once again on the weak side last week. There are still reports of better weather in Texas and into the Southeast and demand concerns caused by the tariff wars are still around. It is starting to turn dry in west Texas again, however. Condition is rated behind last year. The monsoon in India is good and a good production there is possible.
Overnight News: The USDA average price is now 68.95 ct/lb.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 67.00, 66.20, and 64.30 December, with resistance of 69.90, 70.50 and 70.90 December.

FCOJ
General Comments: Futures were higher again yesterday on speculative buying and closed at new highs for the move. News that President Trump will impose 50% tariffs on Brazil is still supporting prices. Brazil is the major exporter of FCOJ and sells a lot into the US. Trends are up. Development conditions are good in Florida now with daily rounds of showers. This could change in the next few weeks as hot weather is expected. The poor production potential for the crops comes from weather but also the greening disease that has caused many Florida producers to lose trees.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are up. Support is at 327.00, 306.00, and 292.00 September, with resistance at 344.00, 350.00, and 356.00 September.

DJ Retail Orange Juice Sales Find Record-High Prices — Market Talk
1025 ET – The cost for a gallon of orange juice hasn’t been this high since at least October 2001, according to data from Nielsen. Through mid-July, the average cost for a gallon was a record-breaking $11.68 a gallon. Retail prices are up 16.5% year-to-date, and almost 20% since this time last year. Orange juice futures on the ICE are lower in early trading, with the most-active contract down 4.3% to $3.2425 a pound. While weaker today, orange juice has surged 44% this month, with traders adding weather premium in what’s expected to be a busy hurricane season. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)

COFFEE
General Comments: New York and London were higher on speculative buying, but with Robusta more available to the market. Arabica has been weakening on the Trump tariffs on Brazil and on good weather in Brazil. Prices had been dropping for several weeks and are much more moderate than before as supplies available to the market have ticked up, but that has changed in the US with the tariffs. Much less Coffee from Brazil is now expected to enter the US market. The Brazil Robusta harvest continues, and Indonesia continues to harvest. Vietnam is done with its harvest and domestic price were firm last week. The Brazil Arabica harvest is starting to get near the end and is expected to be less this year.
Overnight News: The ICO average price is 263.06 ct/lb.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down. Support is at 286.00, 276.00, and 27000 September, and resistance is at 312.00, 316.00 and 321.00 September. Trends in London are mixed to down. Support is at 3170, 3120, and 3060 September, with resistance at 3400, 3600, and 3750 September.

SUGAR
General Comments: Both markets were higher yesterday on ideas of a potential to greatly increase Sugar demand inside the US with the changes to Coke, but as ideas of good supplies for the market from good growing conditions for cane and beets around the world continue. The South Center Brazil harvest is faster now amid drier conditions. Production in Centre-South Brazil has also been strong. Good growing conditions are reported in India and Thailand after a fast start to the Monsoon season. Good rains are still reported in Thailand. Sugar prices in Brazil are now cheap enough that at least some refiners could increase ethanol production and cut back on Sugar production.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 1600, 1540, and 1500 October and resistance is at 1700, 1730, and 1760 October. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 473.00, 465.00, and 446.00 October, with resistance at 500.00, 506.00, and 512.00 October.

> Coke’s New Cane-Sweetened Soda Risks Upending Sugar Supplies: After four decades drinking Coca-Cola sweetened with corn syrup, Americans are going to get the chance to buy the soda made from domestic cane sugar. But whether US farmers can meet that demand is unclear. The move is hardly an outlandish idea. In fact, Coke sold in other countries like Mexico is sweetened with cane sugar. And the company relied on cane sugar before switching to high fructose corn syrup around 1980. While the company will still be using corn syrup for original Coke, the addition of a domestic cane-based soda could help growers in Louisiana and Florida at a time when demand has been slow. However, a sustained bump in demand — especially if other companies follow Coca-Cola’s lead — risks outstripping homegrown availability. US cane only makes up about 30% of overall domestic sugar supplies, according to the US Department of Agriculture. The rest comes from imports, which were about 2.2 million metric tons for the 2025-26 season, and American-grown sugar beets that perform better in colder climates. Read more at Bloomberg.

COCOA
General Comments: New York and London were lower yesterday on ideas of weakening demand from the the poor grind data from Europe and Asia. The North American grind showed a small reduction. There are still reports of increased production potential in other countries outside of West Africa, including Asia and Central America. The market anticipates good demand and less production from Ivory Coast and Ghana. Adequate soil moisture in Ivory Coast is fostering abundant flowering on trees, signaling a healthy October-to-March main crop despite mainly below-average rain in most of the main growing regions last week.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 7910, 7840, and 7500 September, with resistance at 8630, 8900, and 9390 September. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 5230, 4970, and 4700 September, with resistance at 5600, 5810, and 5990 September.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322