Dan Flynn is the writer of The Corn & Ethanol Report, a daily market letter covering grains, energies, and various global issues that are the driving force and backbone of the commodity markets. Contact Mr. Flynn at (312) 264-4374
We kickoff the day with Chicago Fed National Activity Index, Export Sales, Initial Jobless Claims, Continuing Jobless Claims, and Jobless Claims 4-Week Average at 7:30 A.M., S&P Global Composite PMI Flash, S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash, and S&P Global Services PMI Flash at 8:45 A.M., New Home Sales and New Home Sales MoM at 9:00 A.M., EIA Natural Gas Storage at 9:30 A.M., Kansas Fed Composite Index and Kansas Fed Manufacturing Index at 10:00 A.M., 4-Week & 8-Week Bill Auction at 10:30 A.M., 15-Year & 30-Year Mortgage Rate at 11:00 A.M., 10-Year TIPS Auction at 12:00 P.M., Fed Balance Sheet, Building Permits Final, and Building Permits Final MoM at 3:30 P.M.
The National Association of Realtors reported that US existing home sales fell 2.7% in June to a 9-month low of 3.93 Mil homes. This was unchanged from a year ago, tying 2024 as the lowest sales figure since the pandemic and the second-lowest since 1995. Sales of single-family homes fell 3% in June to 3.57 million, while condo sales were steady at 360,000. At the same time, the median home sales price rose 2.7% from May and was 2% higher than a year ago at $435,300. This marked the 24th consecutive month of year-over-year gains. The inventory of unsold homes slipped slightly from May, marking the first monthly decline since December, at 1.53 Mil homes. This was up 16% from last year and the 2nd highest monthly figure since June 2020. The US inventory of homes is growing which will maintain regional pressure on valuations.
Central US Weather Pattern Update
Models Maintain Mild Temp Pattern After July 29th; Central Plains/Midwest Forecast Wet into Aug 7th:
The Central US forecast has trended wetter across the Central Plains, and only TX, OK, and Delta/Southeast will be left arid over the next two weeks. Lite/moderate rain impacts the N Plains & Midwest Thurs-Sunday. Accumulation of 1+” favors ND, MN, WI, eastern IA, IL, & IN. Ag Resources (ARC) also notes additional heavy rainfall is possible across Eastern KS. The major forecasting models are in broad agreement that additional rain impacts KS/NE Aug 1-2nd. The US Corn Belt will be well watered. This week’s heat will be short-lived and favor the E Midwest and Midsouth – where soil moisture is adequate. Midwest heat ends after July 29th. Temps in the 5-15 day period are forecast at or slightly below normal, with overnight lows in early Aug pegged in the low/mid 60’s. The outlook is favorable. Time is running short to trim national corn yield potential.
US Energy Update
US Gasoline Consumption Stagnates:
US motor gasoline consumption in the week ending July 18th totaled 8.97 Mil Gal per day, down 5% from the same week a year ago. US gasoline demand has failed to match year-ago levels in each of the lat four weeks. Cumulative motor gas disappearance through mid-summer is now down 0.5% year-over-year. Use peaks by mid/late August. Enlarged US ethanol disappearance requires expanded blend rates or record exports – which is unlikely due to sagging Brazilian cash ethanol prices. Spot CBOT corn is cheap relative to crude, but since the US ethanol industry is mature and growing by less than 1% per year, but since the US ethanol industry is mature and growing by less than 1% per year, the relationship is lost. Corn prices have decoupled from crude oil values as US ethanol demand growth has stalled. US ethanol grind will be achieved amid the record use of sorghum and higher corn-to-ethanol conversion ratios.
Corn Comments & Analysis
Corn Futures Decline in Low-Volume Trade amid Record Large US Supplies:
CBOT corn ended lower in thin volume as US weather stays favorable into August. The record-large US corn yield potential is being digested by the marketplace, but how big is big is a question that can only be resolved by NASS field surveys in September. A massive 16 Bil Bu US corn crop is in the making with total US supplies pegged at 17.4 Bil Bu. The NASS US corn yield estimate will be released on August 12th with a slew of private crop tours following. The US ethanol production week ending July 18th totaled 317 Mil Gal, down 3 Mil on the previous week and below year-ago levels for a second week. Ethanol stocks are an abundant 1,026 Mil Gal. Current inventories cover 3.6 weeks of consumption, which is large for mid-summer. The need to boost grind is eroding amid weaker than expected gasoline consumption and lack of US ethanol exports. Nearby choppiness is possible nearby, but it’s difficult to envision what prevents a test of $3.60-$3.70 in late summer or early autumn. Resistance remains in place above $4.30 December futures with cash basis bids for new crop historically weak. Des Moines cash corn bids for October rest at $3.60 or $.50 under. The weak new crop cash market will drag CBOT corn lower.
Have A Great Trading Day!
Contact me directly with any questions or open a trading account at 1-888-264-5665 or dflynn@pricegroup.com
Cash Corn Bids Sliding. The Corn & Ethanol Report 07/24/2025
We kickoff the day with Chicago Fed National Activity Index, Export Sales, Initial Jobless Claims, Continuing Jobless Claims, and Jobless Claims 4-Week Average at 7:30 A.M., S&P Global Composite PMI Flash, S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash, and S&P Global Services PMI Flash at 8:45 A.M., New Home Sales and New Home Sales MoM at 9:00 A.M., EIA Natural Gas Storage at 9:30 A.M., Kansas Fed Composite Index and Kansas Fed Manufacturing Index at 10:00 A.M., 4-Week & 8-Week Bill Auction at 10:30 A.M., 15-Year & 30-Year Mortgage Rate at 11:00 A.M., 10-Year TIPS Auction at 12:00 P.M., Fed Balance Sheet, Building Permits Final, and Building Permits Final MoM at 3:30 P.M.
The National Association of Realtors reported that US existing home sales fell 2.7% in June to a 9-month low of 3.93 Mil homes. This was unchanged from a year ago, tying 2024 as the lowest sales figure since the pandemic and the second-lowest since 1995. Sales of single-family homes fell 3% in June to 3.57 million, while condo sales were steady at 360,000. At the same time, the median home sales price rose 2.7% from May and was 2% higher than a year ago at $435,300. This marked the 24th consecutive month of year-over-year gains. The inventory of unsold homes slipped slightly from May, marking the first monthly decline since December, at 1.53 Mil homes. This was up 16% from last year and the 2nd highest monthly figure since June 2020. The US inventory of homes is growing which will maintain regional pressure on valuations.
Central US Weather Pattern Update
Models Maintain Mild Temp Pattern After July 29th; Central Plains/Midwest Forecast Wet into Aug 7th:
The Central US forecast has trended wetter across the Central Plains, and only TX, OK, and Delta/Southeast will be left arid over the next two weeks. Lite/moderate rain impacts the N Plains & Midwest Thurs-Sunday. Accumulation of 1+” favors ND, MN, WI, eastern IA, IL, & IN. Ag Resources (ARC) also notes additional heavy rainfall is possible across Eastern KS. The major forecasting models are in broad agreement that additional rain impacts KS/NE Aug 1-2nd. The US Corn Belt will be well watered. This week’s heat will be short-lived and favor the E Midwest and Midsouth – where soil moisture is adequate. Midwest heat ends after July 29th. Temps in the 5-15 day period are forecast at or slightly below normal, with overnight lows in early Aug pegged in the low/mid 60’s. The outlook is favorable. Time is running short to trim national corn yield potential.
US Energy Update
US Gasoline Consumption Stagnates:
US motor gasoline consumption in the week ending July 18th totaled 8.97 Mil Gal per day, down 5% from the same week a year ago. US gasoline demand has failed to match year-ago levels in each of the lat four weeks. Cumulative motor gas disappearance through mid-summer is now down 0.5% year-over-year. Use peaks by mid/late August. Enlarged US ethanol disappearance requires expanded blend rates or record exports – which is unlikely due to sagging Brazilian cash ethanol prices. Spot CBOT corn is cheap relative to crude, but since the US ethanol industry is mature and growing by less than 1% per year, but since the US ethanol industry is mature and growing by less than 1% per year, the relationship is lost. Corn prices have decoupled from crude oil values as US ethanol demand growth has stalled. US ethanol grind will be achieved amid the record use of sorghum and higher corn-to-ethanol conversion ratios.
Corn Comments & Analysis
Corn Futures Decline in Low-Volume Trade amid Record Large US Supplies:
CBOT corn ended lower in thin volume as US weather stays favorable into August. The record-large US corn yield potential is being digested by the marketplace, but how big is big is a question that can only be resolved by NASS field surveys in September. A massive 16 Bil Bu US corn crop is in the making with total US supplies pegged at 17.4 Bil Bu. The NASS US corn yield estimate will be released on August 12th with a slew of private crop tours following. The US ethanol production week ending July 18th totaled 317 Mil Gal, down 3 Mil on the previous week and below year-ago levels for a second week. Ethanol stocks are an abundant 1,026 Mil Gal. Current inventories cover 3.6 weeks of consumption, which is large for mid-summer. The need to boost grind is eroding amid weaker than expected gasoline consumption and lack of US ethanol exports. Nearby choppiness is possible nearby, but it’s difficult to envision what prevents a test of $3.60-$3.70 in late summer or early autumn. Resistance remains in place above $4.30 December futures with cash basis bids for new crop historically weak. Des Moines cash corn bids for October rest at $3.60 or $.50 under. The weak new crop cash market will drag CBOT corn lower.
Have A Great Trading Day!
Contact me directly with any questions or open a trading account at 1-888-264-5665 or dflynn@pricegroup.com
Thanks,
Dan Flynn
Questions? Ask Dan Flynn today at 312-264-4374