Dan Flynn is the writer of The Corn & Ethanol Report, a daily market letter covering grains, energies, and various global issues that are the driving force and backbone of the commodity markets. Contact Mr. Flynn at (312) 264-4374
We kickoff the day with Fed Chair Powell Speech at 7:30 A.M., Redbook YoY at 7:55 A.M., Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index, Richmond Fed Manufacturing Shipments Index, and Richmond Fed Services Revenues Index at 9:00 A.M., Fed Bowman Speech and Money Supply at 12:00 P.M., Milk Production at 2:00 P.M., and API Energy Stocks at 3:30 P.M.
Question of the day will the ineffective FED that was too late to raise rates and definitely missing the boat on lowering rates have any dovish comments that the middle class and many traders agreeing inflation and unemployment numbers are the best argument it should act sooner rather than later. The Conference Board’s Leading Economic index fell further in June, declining 0.30% from May and was down 4% from a year ago at 98.8. The index has now declined in 37 of the last 40 months, and has marked year-over-year declines for 36 consecutive months. The June index figure was the lowest since March 2015. The S&P 500 was the largest contributor for the index, the 10-year T-bond/Fed Funds credit spread, building permits, and manufacturing orders for consumer goods and materials. However, these were overwhelmed by weaker consumer expectations for business conditions, the ISM New Orders Index, and weekly initial unemployment claims. The overall bearish momentum is slowing, and the Conference Board does not forecast a recession, with real GDP forecast at 1.6% in 2025.
Central US Weather Pattern Update
Central US Forecast Cooler Beyond July 30th; Normal/Above Normal Rainfall Offered to Primary Corn Belt:
The Central US forecast remains viewed as non-threatening as heat across the Central Plains & Midwest will be short-lived, and as ridge-riding storms keep the N Plains, Midwest and TN/KY well watered into the opening week of August. The major forecasting models are in broad agreement that high pressure Ridging envelops most of the Central US July 22-30, but is shifted south and west thereafter. ARC also notes that updated August climate guidance features higher odds of near normal precipitation beyond the next two weeks. Threats are isolated to parts of KS/MO. The NOAA’s, soil moisture anomalies on Aug 4th, 2-week bias corrected forecast has net draws across the Southern Plains and Delta Region, but adequate/surplus levels remain widespread. 10-day rainfall of 1+” is offered to the Dakotas, NE, MN, IL, IN, OH, and KY.
Corn Comments & Analysis
CBOT Corn Sheds Premium on Improved Extended Range US Forecast; Crop Ratings Stay Elevated:
Dec CBOT corn ended weak as the market failed to score a key reversal last Friday and as US weather forecasts improve. Regional stress lies ahead, but most important is that the principal Midwest will be well watered. Temps in IA, MN, and IL after July 30th cool into the mid-80s. This week’s heat does not foreshadow a lasting Midwest pattern change. The US crop on Sunday was 56% silking and rated 74% GD/EX, unchanged from the previous week. ARC’s work suggest the crop nationally will be 62-64% pollinated prior to the arrival of heat, and we doubt major ratings declines occur outside of TX, OK, KS, and MO. This week’s rating is the highest for this week since 2016 and 7th largest on record. ARC maintains a US corn yield forecast of 184 BPA, which along with China’s absence from the market and competitive S American offers keeps a supply-driven bear trend in place into the end of summer. Spot CBOT in the last decade has bottomed between mid-August and the final days of September.
Have A Great Trading Day!
Contact me directly with any questions or open a trading account at 1-888-264-5665 or dflynn@pricegroup.com
Major Market Sectors Waiting Jerome. The Corn & Ethanol Report 07/22/2025
We kickoff the day with Fed Chair Powell Speech at 7:30 A.M., Redbook YoY at 7:55 A.M., Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index, Richmond Fed Manufacturing Shipments Index, and Richmond Fed Services Revenues Index at 9:00 A.M., Fed Bowman Speech and Money Supply at 12:00 P.M., Milk Production at 2:00 P.M., and API Energy Stocks at 3:30 P.M.
Question of the day will the ineffective FED that was too late to raise rates and definitely missing the boat on lowering rates have any dovish comments that the middle class and many traders agreeing inflation and unemployment numbers are the best argument it should act sooner rather than later. The Conference Board’s Leading Economic index fell further in June, declining 0.30% from May and was down 4% from a year ago at 98.8. The index has now declined in 37 of the last 40 months, and has marked year-over-year declines for 36 consecutive months. The June index figure was the lowest since March 2015. The S&P 500 was the largest contributor for the index, the 10-year T-bond/Fed Funds credit spread, building permits, and manufacturing orders for consumer goods and materials. However, these were overwhelmed by weaker consumer expectations for business conditions, the ISM New Orders Index, and weekly initial unemployment claims. The overall bearish momentum is slowing, and the Conference Board does not forecast a recession, with real GDP forecast at 1.6% in 2025.
Central US Weather Pattern Update
Central US Forecast Cooler Beyond July 30th; Normal/Above Normal Rainfall Offered to Primary Corn Belt:
The Central US forecast remains viewed as non-threatening as heat across the Central Plains & Midwest will be short-lived, and as ridge-riding storms keep the N Plains, Midwest and TN/KY well watered into the opening week of August. The major forecasting models are in broad agreement that high pressure Ridging envelops most of the Central US July 22-30, but is shifted south and west thereafter. ARC also notes that updated August climate guidance features higher odds of near normal precipitation beyond the next two weeks. Threats are isolated to parts of KS/MO. The NOAA’s, soil moisture anomalies on Aug 4th, 2-week bias corrected forecast has net draws across the Southern Plains and Delta Region, but adequate/surplus levels remain widespread. 10-day rainfall of 1+” is offered to the Dakotas, NE, MN, IL, IN, OH, and KY.
Corn Comments & Analysis
CBOT Corn Sheds Premium on Improved Extended Range US Forecast; Crop Ratings Stay Elevated:
Dec CBOT corn ended weak as the market failed to score a key reversal last Friday and as US weather forecasts improve. Regional stress lies ahead, but most important is that the principal Midwest will be well watered. Temps in IA, MN, and IL after July 30th cool into the mid-80s. This week’s heat does not foreshadow a lasting Midwest pattern change. The US crop on Sunday was 56% silking and rated 74% GD/EX, unchanged from the previous week. ARC’s work suggest the crop nationally will be 62-64% pollinated prior to the arrival of heat, and we doubt major ratings declines occur outside of TX, OK, KS, and MO. This week’s rating is the highest for this week since 2016 and 7th largest on record. ARC maintains a US corn yield forecast of 184 BPA, which along with China’s absence from the market and competitive S American offers keeps a supply-driven bear trend in place into the end of summer. Spot CBOT in the last decade has bottomed between mid-August and the final days of September.
Have A Great Trading Day!
Contact me directly with any questions or open a trading account at 1-888-264-5665 or dflynn@pricegroup.com
Thanks,
Dan Flynn
Questions? Ask Dan Flynn today at 312-264-4374