Grains Report 07/21/2025

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat was higher last week on ideas of solid harvest progress and good yields and on a neutral weekly export sales report. Harvest conditions for Winter Wheat appears to be good in the US and Spring Wheat development is good. Rains have been good in the northern Greasy Plains but Canada has been a little too dry for best yield potential. Canada could still produce an average crop. Russia is still being watched for dry weather that could hurt yields and Ukraine is watched for the same reason and because of the war that could destroy some fields. Southern hemisphere crops appear to be good.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to up Support is at 521 508 and 496 September, with resistance at 568, 572, and 582 September. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 516, 504, and 498 September, with resistance at 550, 565, and 578 September. Trends in Minneapolis are not available.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of July 15, 2025
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
WHEAT-SRW – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #001602 Open Interest is 469,176
: Positions :
: 67,764 146,163 139,968 99,533 78,122 128,098 67,103 435,363 431,356: 33,813 37,820
: Changes from: July 8, 2025 (Change in open interest: 23,010) :
: 4,487 8,481 9,610 2,490 1,557 3,596 3,100 20,183 22,748: 2,827 262
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 14.4 31.2 29.8 21.2 16.7 27.3 14.3 92.8 91.9: 7.2 8.1
: Total Traders: 387 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 82 122 124 100 97 45 29 306 301:
——————————————————————————————————————-

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of July 15, 2025
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
WHEAT-HRW – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #001612 Open Interest is 290,593
: Positions :
: 32,053 76,214 71,193 79,617 91,115 88,054 30,016 270,917 268,537: 19,676 22,056
: Changes from: July 8, 2025 (Change in open interest: 8,713) :
: 4,171 5,747 4,209 1,153 364 -1,540 -846 7,994 9,474: 719 -761
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 11.0 26.2 24.5 27.4 31.4 30.3 10.3 93.2 92.4: 6.8 7.6
: Total Traders: 263 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 65 58 64 80 76 37 20 211 191:
——————————————————————————————————————-

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of July 8, 2025
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
WHEAT-HRSpring – MIAX FUTURES EXCHANGE (CONTRACTS OF 5,000 BUSHELS) :
CFTC Code #001626 Open Interest is 58,808 :
: Positions :
: 22,855 30,254 3,858 700 559 13,112 10,825 3,916 3,571 1,629 3,039 :
: Changes from: July 1, 2025 :
: -467 2,646 -370 -145 -90 1,916 -1,510 -873 -24 -271 -16 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 38.9 51.4 6.6 1.2 1.0 22.3 18.4 6.7 6.1 2.8 5.2 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 104 :
: 44 39 6 . 5 13 16 11 5 7 7 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

RICE:
General Comments Rice was lower last week in light volume trading on low weekly export sales. USDA decreased production estimates but also cut back on demand estimates in its monthly WASDE report. Ending stocks were up 0.6 million cwt to 34.6 million. Weaker Asian prices are still around and are still a drag on US futures. South America has been offering less volume and at lower prices. Chart trends are still mostly down on the daily charts. The cash market has been slow with mostly quiet domestic markets and average export demand. Milling quality of the Rice remains below industry standards and it takes more Rough Rice to create the grain for sale to stores and exporters. Rice is heading in most growing areas now. Condition has been rated as good and the ratings by USDA are above last year.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends are down. Support is at 1230, 1218, and 1206 September and resistance is at 1276, 1285, and 1298 September.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of July 8, 2025
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
ROUGH RICE – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE (CONTRACTS OF 200,000 POUNDS) :
CFTC Code #039601 Open Interest is 10,888 :
: Positions :
: 5,461 2,239 154 128 0 324 4,604 286 1,453 909 1,201 :
: Changes from: July 1, 2025 :
: 356 -343 0 23 0 0 867 182 -87 133 54 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 50.2 20.6 1.4 1.2 0.0 3.0 42.3 2.6 13.3 8.3 11.0 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 81 :
: 21 13 . . 0 . 23 . 17 9 8 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn was higher last week on the changing weather for the Midwest. The weekly export sales report that showed bad sales. The weather remained cooler last week. Temperatures turned warmer this weekend with hot weather possible through much of this week. Most of the Midwest has seen adequate or greater precipitation. Demand for Corn in world markets remains strong. Oats were near unchanged last week
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed to up. Support is at 390, 387, and 384 September, and resistance is at 414, 418, and 426 September. Trends in Oats are mixed to down. Support is at 360, 349, and 339 September, and resistance is at 383, 388, and 394 September.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of July 15, 2025
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
CORN – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #002602 Open Interest is 1,917,080
: Positions :
: 107,995 372,196 597,148 589,459 563,678 442,816 166,690 1,737,417 1,699,712: 179,663 217,368
: Changes from: July 8, 2025 (Change in open interest: -27,963) :
: 83 -19,908 17,353 -34,042 -23,805 -6,942 -911 -23,548 -27,271: -4,415 -692
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 5.6 19.4 31.1 30.7 29.4 23.1 8.7 90.6 88.7: 9.4 11.3
: Total Traders: 798 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 119 173 210 352 343 51 29 661 639:
——————————————————————————————————————-

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and Soybean Meal were higher last week as good growing conditions continue in the Midwest. That could change this week as hot weather is in the forecast. Soybean Oil was lower after making new highs for the move. Lower priced offers from Brazil in the world market are still important to the US price action. The market could remain under pressure as Brazil basis levels have been under pressure the last few weeks and prices in world markets for Brazil Soybeans are now less than those from the US. Export demand is in its seasonal doldrums. Export demand remains less for US Soybeans as China has been taking almost all the export from South America.
Overnight News:
Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 1010, 1002, and 993 August, and resistance is at 1047, 1051, and 1064 August. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 265.00, 262.00, and 259.00 August, and resistance is at 276.00, 282.00, and 287.00 August. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to up. Support is at 5150, 5080, and 4920 August, with resistance at 5720, 5840, and 5960 August.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of July 15, 2025
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SOYBEANS – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #005602 Open Interest is 1,115,805
: Positions :
: 74,381 163,607 325,042 451,632 503,550 210,706 52,077 1,061,762 1,044,276: 54,043 71,529
: Changes from: July 8, 2025 (Change in open interest: 70,008) :
: -3,578 22,513 24,651 44,573 13,571 4,477 8,803 70,123 69,538: -115 471
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 6.7 14.7 29.1 40.5 45.1 18.9 4.7 95.2 93.6: 4.8 6.4
: Total Traders: 590 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 129 146 189 216 206 46 24 508 470:
——————————————————————————————————————-

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of July 15, 2025
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SOYBEAN OIL – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #007601 Open Interest is 687,886
: Positions :
: 77,871 72,047 196,234 212,517 359,957 160,083 30,781 646,705 659,018: 41,181 28,867
: Changes from: July 8, 2025 (Change in open interest: 15,780) :
: 4,746 -68 7,074 -2,077 9,365 5,155 1,309 14,899 17,681: 882 -1,901
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 11.3 10.5 28.5 30.9 52.3 23.3 4.5 94.0 95.8: 6.0 4.2
: Total Traders: 343 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 91 69 109 100 109 43 23 291 263:
——————————————————————————————————————-

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of July 15, 2025
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SOYBEAN MEAL – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #026603 Open Interest is 755,740
: Positions :
: 73,975 191,285 192,202 298,797 291,894 125,040 43,047 690,013 718,428: 65,727 37,311
: Changes from: July 8, 2025 (Change in open interest: 29,960) :
: 11,738 7,639 11,448 5,664 8,089 -101 2,341 28,749 29,517: 1,211 443
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 9.8 25.3 25.4 39.5 38.6 16.5 5.7 91.3 95.1: 8.7 4.9
: Total Traders: 368 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 78 99 94 136 112 37 21 307 273:
——————————————————————————————————————-

PALM OIL AND CANOLA
General Comments: Palm Oil futures were higher last week in sympathy with the price action in Soybean Oil. Futures were lower today on private dta showing 7.3% less exports so far this month from last month. Ideas that current increased production levels mean higher inventories in MPOB monthly data are still around. Canola was higher last week. Trends are mixed to up on the daily charts and on the weekly charts. The weather has generally been dry for planting and crop development in the Prairies with warm and dry weather around lately.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed to up. Support is at 694.00, 674.00, and 665.00 November, with resistance at 717.00, 738.00, and 744.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are up. Support is at 4250, 4130, and 4080 October, with resistance at 4350, 4410, and 4470 October.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of July 8, 2025
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
USD Malaysian Crude Palm Oil C – CHICAGO MERCANTILE EXCHANGE (CONTRACTS OF 25 METRIC TONS) :
CFTC Code #037021 Open Interest is 15,822 :
: Positions :
: 10,687 5,632 78 4,497 1,151 1,224 0 180 1,012 2,872 1,480 :
: Changes from: July 1, 2025 :
: 558 158 0 0 100 0 0 0 0 400 140 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 67.5 35.6 0.5 28.4 7.3 7.7 0.0 1.1 6.4 18.2 9.4 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 28 :
: 8 7 . 5 . . 0 . . 5 . :
—————————————————————————————————————-

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of July 8, 2025
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
CANOLA – ICE FUTURES U.S. (20 Metric Tonnes) :
CFTC Code #135731 Open Interest is 251,638 :
: Positions :
: 53,482 168,713 8,529 14,513 1,239 134,690 11,184 24,812 13,767 14,958 13,659 :
: Changes from: July 1, 2025 :
: 290 -13,282 580 -860 -16 -11,895 2,817 690 383 681 -1,327 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 21.3 67.0 3.4 5.8 0.5 53.5 4.4 9.9 5.5 5.9 5.4 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 349 :
: 40 75 7 4 5 74 19 22 54 98 48 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – July 21
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Monday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 1025.00 -15.00 Unquoted – –
Sep 1030.00 -17.50 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 1030.00 -20.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 1035.00 -15.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 1022.50 – Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 1030.00 -15.00 Unquoted – –
Sep 1035.00 -17.50 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 1035.00 -20.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 1040.00 -15.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 1027.50 – Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 1010.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 927.50 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 4,200.00 -90.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 445.00 -07.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.2335)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Jul 21
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 234,041 lots, or 9.74 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-25 4,178 4,208 4,153 4,199 4,198 4,176 -22 182,594 172,998
Nov-25 4,118 4,128 4,089 4,124 4,117 4,109 -8 28,923 71,087
Jan-26 4,106 4,117 4,083 4,114 4,108 4,100 -8 14,043 28,945
Mar-26 4,098 4,106 4,070 4,106 4,097 4,088 -9 4,108 22,117
May-26 4,108 4,141 4,100 4,141 4,132 4,118 -14 565 1,071
Jul-26 4,108 4,149 4,103 4,149 4,122 4,123 1 3,808 2,266
Corn
Turnover: 706,858 lots, or 16.29 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-25 2,318 2,325 2,314 2,320 2,305 2,319 14 507,087 1,036,253
Nov-25 2,281 2,288 2,278 2,281 2,273 2,282 9 97,407 409,507
Jan-26 2,244 2,253 2,238 2,250 2,240 2,245 5 68,742 160,671
Mar-26 2,245 2,254 2,239 2,252 2,242 2,245 3 20,384 82,967
May-26 2,288 2,295 2,284 2,294 2,281 2,289 8 7,453 29,057
Jul-26 2,304 2,307 2,296 2,303 2,294 2,301 7 5,785 6,926
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,630,578 lots, or 49.57 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Aug-25 3,040 3,052 3,029 3,050 3,025 3,039 14 19,277 62,954
Sep-25 3,060 3,070 3,046 3,069 3,043 3,059 16 972,455 1,885,694
Nov-25 3,098 3,108 3,083 3,105 3,083 3,097 14 150,810 632,481
Dec-25 3,103 3,119 3,095 3,118 3,097 3,108 11 14,465 130,355
Jan-26 3,080 3,091 3,068 3,087 3,070 3,081 11 292,691 1,155,465
Mar-26 2,921 2,939 2,914 2,935 2,912 2,926 14 67,366 394,692
May-26 2,744 2,757 2,742 2,752 2,738 2,748 10 98,582 568,684
Jul-26 2,740 2,761 2,732 2,741 2,734 2,739 5 14,932 43,503
Palm Oil
Turnover: 846,998 lots, or 75.82 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Aug-25 8,938 9,052 8,886 8,894 8,904 8,942 38 1,897 1,352
Sep-25 8,976 9,064 8,894 8,910 8,896 8,958 62 708,709 509,869
Oct-25 8,944 9,044 8,888 8,890 8,902 8,938 36 6,362 7,816
Nov-25 8,924 9,012 8,870 8,870 8,868 8,934 66 784 1,960
Dec-25 8,926 9,006 8,868 8,868 8,880 8,946 66 371 659
Jan-26 8,950 9,028 8,856 8,858 8,876 8,922 46 123,302 170,232
Feb-26 8,870 8,966 8,836 8,838 8,830 8,890 60 38 966
Mar-26 8,866 8,866 8,760 8,762 8,764 8,792 28 38 287
Apr-26 8,696 8,712 8,660 8,660 8,632 8,700 68 9 115
May-26 8,616 8,698 8,568 8,572 8,608 8,620 12 5,468 11,680
Jun-26 8,594 8,598 8,514 8,520 8,544 8,542 -2 17 57
Jul-26 8,586 8,586 8,454 8,456 8,508 8,498 -10 3 1
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 444,960 lots, or 36.07 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Aug-25 8,146 8,166 8,090 8,094 8,138 8,132 -6 1,286 2,526
Sep-25 8,156 8,180 8,086 8,092 8,130 8,124 -6 321,474 535,817
Nov-25 8,168 8,182 8,098 8,106 8,138 8,124 -14 2,063 8,870
Dec-25 8,138 8,190 8,108 8,108 8,154 8,134 -20 378 1,855
Jan-26 8,130 8,144 8,042 8,048 8,094 8,082 -12 109,923 348,223
Mar-26 7,960 7,976 7,908 7,910 7,950 7,952 2 58 1,166
May-26 7,748 7,752 7,680 7,688 7,716 7,710 -6 9,687 38,099
Jul-26 7,722 7,770 7,672 7,678 7,714 7,692 -22 91 95
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322