Grains Report 07/18/2025

IGC maintains 2025/26 world corn and wheat crop forecasts –
17 Jul 2025 08:05:08 AM
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LONDON, July 17 (Reuters) – The International Grains Council on Thursday maintained its forecast for 2025/26 global corn production with a slightly improved outlook for crops in the United States offset by downward revisions for Hungary and Romania.
The intergovernmental body, in a monthly update, forecast the global corn crop at 1.276 billion metric tons, sharply above the previous season’s 1.228 billion but broadly in line with consumption which was seen at 1.272 billion.
U.S. corn production was upwardly revised to 398.9 million tons from 397.4 million seen previously, while the outlook was cut for Hungary, to 4.8 million from 5.9 million, and for Romania, to 7.7 million from 8.5 million.
The IGC also kept its 2025/26 world wheat crop outlook at 808 million tons, a modest increase on the prior season’s 800 million but still slightly below projected consumption of 814 million tons.
(Reporting by Nigel Hunt; Editing by Susan Fenton and Tomasz Janowski)

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat was lower yesterday on ideas of solid harvest progress and good yields and on a neutral weekly export sales report. Harvest conditions for Winter Wheat appears to be good in the US and Spring Wheat development is good. Rains have been good in the northern Greasy Plains but Canada has been a little too dry for best yield potential. Russia is still being watched for dry weather that could hurt yields and Ukraine is watched for the same reason and because of the war that could destroy some fields. Southern hemisphere crops appear to be good.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to up Support is at 521 508 and 496 September, with resistance at 568, 572, and 582 September. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 516, 504, and 498 September, with resistance at 550, 565, and 578 September. Trends in Minneapolis are not available.

RICE:
General Comments Rice was lower again yesterday in light volume trading on low weekly export sales. USDA decreased production estimates but also cut back on demand estimates in its monthly WASDE report. Ending stocks were up 0.6 million cwt to 34.6 million. Weaker Asian prices are still around and are still a drag on US futures. South America has been offering less volume and at lower prices. Chart trends are still mostly down on the daily charts. The cash market has been slow with mostly quiet domestic markets and average export demand. Milling quality of the Rice remains below industry standards and it takes more Rough Rice to create the grain for sale to stores and exporters. Rice is heading in most growing areas now. Condition has been rated as good and the ratings by USDA are above last year.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends are down. Support is at 1254, 1242, and 1230 September and resistance is at 1333, 1369, and 1392 September.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn was a little lower yesterday on the weekly export sales report that showed bad sales. It was the only market to move higher yesterday. USDA on Friday cut its production estimated slightly but kept a year on year increase in ending stocks levels intact. The weather forecasts remained cooler this week. Reduced heat and some showers are expected in the Midwest this week, but temperatures could turn warmer this weekend with hot weather possible early next week. Most of the Midwest has seen adequate or greater precipitation. Demand for Corn in world markets remains strong. Oats were hlower
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 390, 387, and 384 September, and resistance is at 407, 414, and 418 September. Trends in Oats are mixed to down. Support is at 360, 349, and 339 September, and resistance is at 383, 388, and 394 September.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and Soybean Oil were higher yesterday as good growing conditions continue in the Midwest. That could change next week as hot weather is in the forecast. Soybean Meal was lower. Lower priced offers from Brazil in the world market are still important to the US price action. The market could remain under pressure as Brazil basis levels have been under pressure the last few weeks and prices in world markets for Brazil Soybeans are now less than those from the US. Export demand is in its seasonal doldrums. Export demand remains less for US Soybeans as China has been taking almost all the export from South America.
Overnight News:
Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 983, 970, and 958 August, and resistance is at 1025, 1030, and 1047 August. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to down. Support is at 265.00, 262.00, and 259.00 August, and resistance is at 276.00, 282.00, and 287.00 August. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to up. Support is at 5150, 5080, and 4920 August, with resistance at 5720, 5840, and 5960 August.

PALM OIL AND CANOLA
General Comments: Palm Oil futures were higher today in sympathy with the price action in Soybean Oil. Ideas that current increased production levels mean higher inventories in MPOB monthly data are still around. Canola was lower. Trends are mixed to up on the daily charts and on the weekly charts. The weather has generally been dry for planting and crop development in the Prairies with warm and dry weather around lately.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed to up. Support is at 674.00, 665.00, and 650.00 November, with resistance at 707.00, 717.00, and 738.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to up. Support is at 4130, 4080, and 4040 October, with resistance at 4350, 4410, and 4470 October.

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – July 18
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Friday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jul 1037.50 +17.50 Unquoted – –
Aug 1040.00 +20.00 Unquoted – –
Sep 1047.50 +22.50 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 1050.00 +20.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 1050.00 +15.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jul 1042.50 +17.50 Unquoted – –
Aug/Sep 1045.00 +20.00 Unquoted – –
Sep 1052.50 +22.50 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 1055.00 +20.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 1055.00 +15.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jul 1015.00 +15.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jul 932.50 +17.50 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jul 4,290.00 +120.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jul 452.00 +04.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.2405)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Jul 18
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 206,735 lots, or 8.64 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-25 4,200 4,223 4,181 4,189 4,194 4,198 4 160,359 175,312
Nov-25 4,115 4,135 4,106 4,118 4,106 4,117 11 29,057 69,494
Jan-26 4,103 4,126 4,097 4,110 4,095 4,108 13 11,385 26,790
Mar-26 4,091 4,114 4,086 4,098 4,084 4,097 13 3,569 22,019
May-26 4,118 4,150 4,118 4,130 4,117 4,132 15 187 1,057
Jul-26 4,123 4,142 4,116 4,123 4,113 4,122 9 2,178 1,057
Corn
Turnover: 740,289 lots, or 1.70 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-25 2,300 2,316 2,294 2,314 2,286 2,305 19 550,232 1,067,675
Nov-25 2,266 2,282 2,262 2,281 2,259 2,273 14 98,925 408,184
Jan-26 2,240 2,245 2,235 2,244 2,234 2,240 6 54,946 157,277
Mar-26 2,244 2,247 2,238 2,244 2,240 2,242 2 20,661 79,621
May-26 2,278 2,285 2,277 2,284 2,273 2,281 8 9,221 28,857
Jul-26 2,294 2,300 2,290 2,297 2,285 2,294 9 6,304 5,902
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,889,853 lots, or 57.18 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Aug-25 3,016 3,044 3,004 3,038 2,985 3,025 40 13,776 73,445
Sep-25 3,031 3,064 3,023 3,056 3,011 3,043 32 1,166,958 1,907,175
Nov-25 3,074 3,100 3,063 3,094 3,051 3,083 32 145,804 641,901
Dec-25 3,084 3,112 3,082 3,103 3,069 3,097 28 19,500 129,560
Jan-26 3,053 3,086 3,051 3,078 3,038 3,070 32 350,621 1,146,878
Mar-26 2,898 2,926 2,896 2,919 2,887 2,912 25 61,909 391,840
May-26 2,725 2,749 2,722 2,744 2,715 2,738 23 119,038 572,556
Jul-26 2,721 2,744 2,720 2,741 2,711 2,734 23 12,247 32,575
Palm Oil
Turnover: 815,080 lots, or 72.49 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Aug-25 8,782 8,974 8,782 8,968 8,758 8,904 146 3,146 1,524
Sep-25 8,800 8,972 8,782 8,964 8,764 8,896 132 703,683 557,055
Oct-25 8,798 8,954 8,784 8,950 8,770 8,902 132 4,837 7,511
Nov-25 8,788 8,934 8,772 8,908 8,766 8,868 102 938 1,821
Dec-25 8,790 8,934 8,790 8,912 8,742 8,880 138 186 608
Jan-26 8,780 8,940 8,766 8,932 8,752 8,876 124 98,684 178,778
Feb-26 8,838 8,876 8,838 8,864 8,710 8,830 120 44 947
Mar-26 8,740 8,810 8,732 8,768 8,668 8,764 96 74 289
Apr-26 – – – 8,632 8,586 8,632 46 13 112
May-26 8,550 8,658 8,540 8,644 8,526 8,608 82 3,473 11,070
Jun-26 8,544 8,544 8,544 8,544 8,464 8,544 80 2 50
Jul-26 – – – 8,508 8,420 8,508 88 0 0
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 467,853 lots, or 37.96 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Aug-25 8,042 8,212 8,042 8,156 8,030 8,138 108 1,315 3,312
Sep-25 8,096 8,176 8,076 8,160 8,052 8,130 78 341,179 558,184
Nov-25 8,086 8,176 8,086 8,166 8,060 8,138 78 1,318 8,010
Dec-25 8,106 8,186 8,106 8,186 8,072 8,154 82 73 1,575
Jan-26 8,040 8,136 8,040 8,118 8,012 8,094 82 114,741 347,044
Mar-26 7,904 7,980 7,902 7,964 7,892 7,950 58 93 1,175
May-26 7,676 7,750 7,676 7,734 7,660 7,716 56 9,099 38,587
Jul-26 7,776 7,776 7,698 7,728 7,642 7,714 72 35 38
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

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