Dan Flynn is the writer of The Corn & Ethanol Report, a daily market letter covering grains, energies, and various global issues that are the driving force and backbone of the commodity markets. Contact Mr. Flynn at (312) 264-4374
We kickoff the day with Building Permits Prel, Building Permits MoM Prel, Housing Starts, and Housing Starts MoM at 7:30 A.M., Michigan Consumer Sentiment Prel, Michigan 5 Year Inflation Expectations Prel, Michigan Consumer Expectations Prel, Michigan Current Conditions Prel, and Michigan Inflation Expectations Prel at 9:00 A.M., and Baker Hughes Oil & Total Rigs Count at 12:00 P.M.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that US import prices in June rose 0.1% from May, beating market expectations of a 0.3% increase. Non-fuel import prices, non-fuel industrial supplies, and consumer goods led to the monthly increase. Lower prices for food, beverages, and motor vehicles partially offset those increases. Additionally, fuel import prices were down 0.7% for the month. Compared to a year ago, import prices were down 0.21% marking the 2nd consecutive decline. In the first 6 months of 2025, import price averaged just 0.6% more than a year ago. Export prices in June rose by 0.5%, and were 2.8% higher than a year ago. This marked the 9th straight month of annualized increase in US export prices.
Central US Weather Pattern Update
Midwest Forecast Warm/Wet Remainder of July; Duration of Heat Key:
The Central US forecast is broadly consistent with prior runs with warmer temps projected after July 23rd and with ridge-riding storms to the Northern Plains, Midwest and mid-South in the second half of July. Extreme heat will impact TX, OK, KS, and parts of MO, where crop stress is anticipated. However the best performing models maintain the heat across the Dakotas and Midwest will be short in duration. Key is whether late July/early Aug forecasts trend warmer from current outlooks. This will be followed closely. In the near term, near-ideal conditions are expected to persist into the middle of next week. High temps from NE to PA will be capped in the low/mid 80’s. Highs in the upper 70’s are forecast in ND, MN, WI, and MI. Overnight lows into next Tues/Wed range from the upper 50’s in ND/MN to the mid-60’s in NE, IA, IL, and OH.
Further US Weather Pattern Discussion
Ag Resources (ARC) notes that high temps across the S Plains, Delta region and MO July 23-26 will exist in the upper 90’s. Moisture loss there will be rapid. Highs in the low 90’s will be spread across the principal US Corn Belt next week, but as of now Canadian and AI ensemble models outperformed others in long term temp forecasts, project high pressure Ridging to be compressed south and westward after July 26. Highs across the primary Midwest will be closer normal, and in the mid/upper 80’s. Heat persists indefinitely across the S Plains. NOAA’s recently published three-month drought forecast shows an easing/elimination of drought that is offered to northern IL/IN. Drought development is forecast in KS. Overall, drought coverage in mid-to-late August will be minimal. The duration of heat across the SW Corn Belt is key, but ARC maintains record US corn & soy yield potential remains intact with near normal temps in August.
Corn Comment & Analysis
CBOT Corn Corrects; Lasting Midwest Heat Unlikely; US-Chinese Trade Issues Persist with an ag trade deal a ways off:
Corn ended slightly weaker on Thursday as weekly export sales data provided the first hint importer demand is shifting in bulk to South America and as a spat between the US & China over control of the Panama Canal appears imminent. Chinese buying of US-origin corn is unlikely in the near future, and ARC’s primary concern is centered on the absence of a meaningful global export demand driver. The US yield debate intensifies in late July, and the duration of heat in the S Plains & Missouri will be monitored. Importantly, EU, Canadian, and AI model guidance has trended cooler in IA & E Midwest July 26th. US export sales in the week ending July 10th were a meager 4 Mil Bu, vs. %0 Mil the previous week. A collapse in demand in mid-summer is typical, but not until Oct-Nov will the market be able to validate USDA’s large projected new crop US export forecast. Choppiness persists nearby, but lasting lows aren’t expected until very late August. $4.30 +, Dec CBOT, is a sell.
Export Sales Drop to South America. The Corn & Ethanol Report 07/18/2025
We kickoff the day with Building Permits Prel, Building Permits MoM Prel, Housing Starts, and Housing Starts MoM at 7:30 A.M., Michigan Consumer Sentiment Prel, Michigan 5 Year Inflation Expectations Prel, Michigan Consumer Expectations Prel, Michigan Current Conditions Prel, and Michigan Inflation Expectations Prel at 9:00 A.M., and Baker Hughes Oil & Total Rigs Count at 12:00 P.M.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that US import prices in June rose 0.1% from May, beating market expectations of a 0.3% increase. Non-fuel import prices, non-fuel industrial supplies, and consumer goods led to the monthly increase. Lower prices for food, beverages, and motor vehicles partially offset those increases. Additionally, fuel import prices were down 0.7% for the month. Compared to a year ago, import prices were down 0.21% marking the 2nd consecutive decline. In the first 6 months of 2025, import price averaged just 0.6% more than a year ago. Export prices in June rose by 0.5%, and were 2.8% higher than a year ago. This marked the 9th straight month of annualized increase in US export prices.
Central US Weather Pattern Update
Midwest Forecast Warm/Wet Remainder of July; Duration of Heat Key:
The Central US forecast is broadly consistent with prior runs with warmer temps projected after July 23rd and with ridge-riding storms to the Northern Plains, Midwest and mid-South in the second half of July. Extreme heat will impact TX, OK, KS, and parts of MO, where crop stress is anticipated. However the best performing models maintain the heat across the Dakotas and Midwest will be short in duration. Key is whether late July/early Aug forecasts trend warmer from current outlooks. This will be followed closely. In the near term, near-ideal conditions are expected to persist into the middle of next week. High temps from NE to PA will be capped in the low/mid 80’s. Highs in the upper 70’s are forecast in ND, MN, WI, and MI. Overnight lows into next Tues/Wed range from the upper 50’s in ND/MN to the mid-60’s in NE, IA, IL, and OH.
Further US Weather Pattern Discussion
Ag Resources (ARC) notes that high temps across the S Plains, Delta region and MO July 23-26 will exist in the upper 90’s. Moisture loss there will be rapid. Highs in the low 90’s will be spread across the principal US Corn Belt next week, but as of now Canadian and AI ensemble models outperformed others in long term temp forecasts, project high pressure Ridging to be compressed south and westward after July 26. Highs across the primary Midwest will be closer normal, and in the mid/upper 80’s. Heat persists indefinitely across the S Plains. NOAA’s recently published three-month drought forecast shows an easing/elimination of drought that is offered to northern IL/IN. Drought development is forecast in KS. Overall, drought coverage in mid-to-late August will be minimal. The duration of heat across the SW Corn Belt is key, but ARC maintains record US corn & soy yield potential remains intact with near normal temps in August.
Corn Comment & Analysis
CBOT Corn Corrects; Lasting Midwest Heat Unlikely; US-Chinese Trade Issues Persist with an ag trade deal a ways off:
Corn ended slightly weaker on Thursday as weekly export sales data provided the first hint importer demand is shifting in bulk to South America and as a spat between the US & China over control of the Panama Canal appears imminent. Chinese buying of US-origin corn is unlikely in the near future, and ARC’s primary concern is centered on the absence of a meaningful global export demand driver. The US yield debate intensifies in late July, and the duration of heat in the S Plains & Missouri will be monitored. Importantly, EU, Canadian, and AI model guidance has trended cooler in IA & E Midwest July 26th. US export sales in the week ending July 10th were a meager 4 Mil Bu, vs. %0 Mil the previous week. A collapse in demand in mid-summer is typical, but not until Oct-Nov will the market be able to validate USDA’s large projected new crop US export forecast. Choppiness persists nearby, but lasting lows aren’t expected until very late August. $4.30 +, Dec CBOT, is a sell.
Have A Great Trading Day!
Thanks,
Dan Flynn
Questions? Ask Dan Flynn today at 312-264-4374