Dan Flynn is the writer of The Corn & Ethanol Report, a daily market letter covering grains, energies, and various global issues that are the driving force and backbone of the commodity markets. Contact Mr. Flynn at (312) 264-4374
We kickoff the day with MBA 30-Day Mortgage Rate, MBA Mortgage Applications, MBA Mortgage Market Index, MBA Mortgage Refinance Index, and MBA Purchase Index 5:00 A.M., PPI, PPIU MoM & YoY, Core PPI MoM & YoY, and Core PPI Ex Food, Energy, and Trade MoM & YoY at 7:30 A.M., Industrial Production MoM & YoY, Manufacturing Production MoM & YoY, Capacity Utilization, and Fed Hammack Speech at 8:15 A.M., Fed Barr Speech at 9:00 A.M., EIA Energy Stocks at 9:30 A.M., 17-Week Bill Auction at 10:30 A.M., Fed Beige Book at 1:00 P.M., Dairy Products Sales at 2:00 P.M., and Fed Williams Speech at 5:30 P.M.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that Consumer Price Inflation for June 27, which was in line with market expectation rate in 4-months. Moreover, the Consumer Price Index rose to 332.6, a record high for the month of June and a new all-time high. The food, meats, poultry, housing, medical care, and other goods and services indexes all rose 1% from highs in June. The energy index rose 1% from May on seasonal demand, but was 1% less than last year. Gasoline was down 8% year-over-year, and diesel was 4.7% cheaper. However, those decreases were offset by a 5.8% increase in electricity prices and a 14.2% increase in natural gas.. New car prices were up just 0.2%, while used car prices increased 2.8% from last year. Food price inflation rose to 3%, matching the March increase as the highest since October 2023. Although initially the numbers it could look negative, but overall, it is a mirage, were showing growth in jobs and a cut in interest rates . with tax cut and a cut in spending will galvanize the future of our growing economy. Free Markets for Free Men.
Central US Weather Pattern Update
Central US Forecast Out Right Wet; First Tropical Disturbance to Depression Threaten US Gulf and Impacting Louisiana & all Gulf States:
The Central US forecast is wetter in IA, MN, WI and IL, where rainfall accumulation Thurs-Sun is projected at 1.25-2.50”. Isolated pockets of IA, IL, and southern WI will see upward of 3-4”. The coming pattern of active rainfall is broadly favorable, especially in the drier areas of KY, IN, and OH, but a drier pattern will be desired across IA & Upper Midwest during August. Ag Resources (ARC) notes the season’s first tropical event produces rainfall of 2-4” in LA and far southern MS, but the heaviest rain will exist south of major production areas. The details of rainfall in IA, WI and IL will be monitored, but record yield potential is offered. A drier Midwest pattern is forecast in the 8-15 day period. Heat expands beginning July 25th, but max readings in the 80’s to mid-90’s across the Southern Plains and SW US where a high-pressure Ridge will reside.
Black Sea Weather Pattern Update
Eastern European & Ukraine Forecast Wetter; Drought Isolated far Southern Russia:
The EU/Black Sea forecast has improved, with cooler temps forecast across Western Europe beginning July 20th and with soaking rainfall forecast in Romania and Ukraine the next 10 days. The EU models 10-day precipitation forecast in major corn producing areas of eastern Europe and Ukraine will benefit, but 10-day accumulation 1-3” is offered to 55-60% of Ukrainian corn planted area. This rain is viewed as rather timely and keeps subsoil moisture adequate in northern and western Ukraine. Corn in southern Russia continues to labor under warmth/dryness.
Corn Comments & Analysis
CBOT Corn Attempts Recovery:
CBOT futures ended flat.
Intra-commodity spread covering rallied corn as funds exited long wheat/short corn and long soybean/short corn spreads. Indications that the nearby basis at export terminals has increased amid steady demand to source old crop to source old crop corn supplies from farmers,. However, old crop tightness loses influence beyond July as a 16+ Bil Bu crop triggers oversupply. Notice that August bids in St. Louis drop to $.11 over vs. the spot market at $.38 over. New crop is quoted at $.16 under Dec Chicago. Wetter forecasts in France, E Europe & Ukraine collide with an outright wet Midwest pattern into June 20th. Clearing large global feed supplies at harvest requires weaker cash/futures markets. ARC’s strategy remains to reward corn recoveries. Brazil’s cash corn index has fallen to new seasonal lows at $4.75/Bil, which compares to $5.25 in mid-June. The prospect of a large US corn crop yield will cap rallies above $4.25 December with harvest lows placed at $3.50-$3.75. The Central US weather forecast is favorable, except that a few areas may experience excessive rainfall. Confidence in sustained hot/dry Midwest weather is low. Corn is near secondary peak.
Have A Great Trading Day!
Contact me directly with any questions or open a trading account at 1-888-264-5665 or dflynn@pricegroup.com
June Budget Surplus – Economy Foundation Being Laid. The Corn & Ethanol Report 07/16/2025
We kickoff the day with MBA 30-Day Mortgage Rate, MBA Mortgage Applications, MBA Mortgage Market Index, MBA Mortgage Refinance Index, and MBA Purchase Index 5:00 A.M., PPI, PPIU MoM & YoY, Core PPI MoM & YoY, and Core PPI Ex Food, Energy, and Trade MoM & YoY at 7:30 A.M., Industrial Production MoM & YoY, Manufacturing Production MoM & YoY, Capacity Utilization, and Fed Hammack Speech at 8:15 A.M., Fed Barr Speech at 9:00 A.M., EIA Energy Stocks at 9:30 A.M., 17-Week Bill Auction at 10:30 A.M., Fed Beige Book at 1:00 P.M., Dairy Products Sales at 2:00 P.M., and Fed Williams Speech at 5:30 P.M.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that Consumer Price Inflation for June 27, which was in line with market expectation rate in 4-months. Moreover, the Consumer Price Index rose to 332.6, a record high for the month of June and a new all-time high. The food, meats, poultry, housing, medical care, and other goods and services indexes all rose 1% from highs in June. The energy index rose 1% from May on seasonal demand, but was 1% less than last year. Gasoline was down 8% year-over-year, and diesel was 4.7% cheaper. However, those decreases were offset by a 5.8% increase in electricity prices and a 14.2% increase in natural gas.. New car prices were up just 0.2%, while used car prices increased 2.8% from last year. Food price inflation rose to 3%, matching the March increase as the highest since October 2023. Although initially the numbers it could look negative, but overall, it is a mirage, were showing growth in jobs and a cut in interest rates . with tax cut and a cut in spending will galvanize the future of our growing economy. Free Markets for Free Men.
Central US Weather Pattern Update
Central US Forecast Out Right Wet; First Tropical Disturbance to Depression Threaten US Gulf and Impacting Louisiana & all Gulf States:
The Central US forecast is wetter in IA, MN, WI and IL, where rainfall accumulation Thurs-Sun is projected at 1.25-2.50”. Isolated pockets of IA, IL, and southern WI will see upward of 3-4”. The coming pattern of active rainfall is broadly favorable, especially in the drier areas of KY, IN, and OH, but a drier pattern will be desired across IA & Upper Midwest during August. Ag Resources (ARC) notes the season’s first tropical event produces rainfall of 2-4” in LA and far southern MS, but the heaviest rain will exist south of major production areas. The details of rainfall in IA, WI and IL will be monitored, but record yield potential is offered. A drier Midwest pattern is forecast in the 8-15 day period. Heat expands beginning July 25th, but max readings in the 80’s to mid-90’s across the Southern Plains and SW US where a high-pressure Ridge will reside.
Black Sea Weather Pattern Update
Eastern European & Ukraine Forecast Wetter; Drought Isolated far Southern Russia:
The EU/Black Sea forecast has improved, with cooler temps forecast across Western Europe beginning July 20th and with soaking rainfall forecast in Romania and Ukraine the next 10 days. The EU models 10-day precipitation forecast in major corn producing areas of eastern Europe and Ukraine will benefit, but 10-day accumulation 1-3” is offered to 55-60% of Ukrainian corn planted area. This rain is viewed as rather timely and keeps subsoil moisture adequate in northern and western Ukraine. Corn in southern Russia continues to labor under warmth/dryness.
Corn Comments & Analysis
CBOT Corn Attempts Recovery:
CBOT futures ended flat.
Intra-commodity spread covering rallied corn as funds exited long wheat/short corn and long soybean/short corn spreads. Indications that the nearby basis at export terminals has increased amid steady demand to source old crop to source old crop corn supplies from farmers,. However, old crop tightness loses influence beyond July as a 16+ Bil Bu crop triggers oversupply. Notice that August bids in St. Louis drop to $.11 over vs. the spot market at $.38 over. New crop is quoted at $.16 under Dec Chicago. Wetter forecasts in France, E Europe & Ukraine collide with an outright wet Midwest pattern into June 20th. Clearing large global feed supplies at harvest requires weaker cash/futures markets. ARC’s strategy remains to reward corn recoveries. Brazil’s cash corn index has fallen to new seasonal lows at $4.75/Bil, which compares to $5.25 in mid-June. The prospect of a large US corn crop yield will cap rallies above $4.25 December with harvest lows placed at $3.50-$3.75. The Central US weather forecast is favorable, except that a few areas may experience excessive rainfall. Confidence in sustained hot/dry Midwest weather is low. Corn is near secondary peak.
Have A Great Trading Day!
Contact me directly with any questions or open a trading account at 1-888-264-5665 or dflynn@pricegroup.com
Thanks,
Dan Flynn
Questions? Ask Dan Flynn today at 312-264-4374