AgMaster Report – 07/15/2025

SEPT CORN

The July WASDE reflected a 15.705 BB crop with a 181 BPA yield – both would be records over 2023 – 15.340 & 177.3! However, the mkt has long anticipated this kind of crop & has dialed it in to a certain extent. The downside gap on the above chart from early July is negative & the uncertainty of the trade/tariff deals adds to the pressure! But the overwhelming fundamental has been the near ideal weather – which now continues into pollination! $4.00 corn bakes in a lot of bearishness – we’ll see how the weather thru July responds! Exports remain very strong – especially with the low price & very cheap US Dollar!

 

SEPT BEANS                                                                

There were no surprises in the USDA July WADSE with a 4.335 BB crop & 52.5 BPA predicted for this Fall! Much like corn, benign growing weather has been the dominant fundamental – dropping Sept Beans 80 cents since mid-June! And exacerbating the situation is the continued absence of a US-China grain deal! However, the mkt has dialed a lot of negativity at under $10/bu & August is the month beans are made! And even without China, exports have been ok with the low prices & cheap US Dollar! The mkt is very oversold & subject to sharp rallies but normally the good weather has capped them!

 

SEPT WHT

Sept Wht has been in a sideways pattern (540-570) for the first 2 weeks of July & the largely neutral USDA Report issued Friday did little to alter that pattern! A pick-up in exports due to a very low US Dollar or spillover from bean/corn rally could well ignite a short-covering rally but very beneficial climes have kept a wrap on B/C rallies!

 

AUG CAT

Unlike last week, the cash cattle mkt didn’t show up this morning – and the mkt subsequently retreated from the all-time highs it made last week! Also, tariff-trade fears weighed on demand – inserting more uncertainty of the mkts ability to hold solid demand at the current levels! Even though we’re in the GRILLING SEASON – the best demand period of the year – it might not be enough to hold the mkt at current levels! However, the discount Aug Cat holds to cash is very large & may support the mkt on breaks – like it has in the past!

 

AUG HOGS

In the beginning of July, inexplicably, Aug hog were unable to rally with Aug Cat despite their economic advantage in the supermarket! But today, they were certainly able to go down with Aug Cat! Tariff fears & too much supply could be the issue as today, Aug Hogs have dropped $10 under their June highs! The barbeque season may yet rescue this mkt after its sizeable break since late June! (113-103)

Questions? Ask Bill Moore today at 312-264-4337