As we make our way through the growing season, the market is focusing hard on weather forecasts as we approach pollination. Obviously, this is a very key time for crop development where moisture is near it peak needs, and cool weather is preferred. We’re expected to see both across much of the Corn Belt. There’s an old saying that April showers bring May flowers, so what happens when the showers come in July? Well, the likely answer is a relatively good national yield, though none of that rhymes with showers. While I don’t have a catchy tune for what July showers bring (and while we understand, the crop is far from made) the prospects for a large crop are surely not shrinking right now. Maybe we’ll just stick with the turn that rain makes grain..
Corn gave the previous week’s gains, as futures gapped lower out of the gate, with September down 24 ¼ cents on the week. December was 24 ¾ cents lower this week. USDA slashed 75 mbu from their feed estimate on Friday, but raised exports by 100 mbu to trim the ending stocks projection by 25 mbu to 1.34 bbu. New crop production was down 115 mbu, with stocks cut by 90 mbu to 1.66 bbu. Weekly Crop Progress data pegged the US corn crop at 18% silking as of July 6, 3 points ahead of the 5-year average. Ratings were up 1% to 74% good to excellent, as the Brugler500 index was another 3 points higher to 385. EIA’s weekly report indicated ethanol production up 9,000 barrels per day from the week prior to 1.085 million bpd in the week of 7/4. Stocks of ethanol were down 158,000 barrels to 23.959 million barrels. Export Sales data showed 2024/25 corn bookings falling back to 1.262 MMT for the week that ended on July 3, with new crop at 888,562 MT. New crop sales totaled 940,159 MT. Specs trimmed back their large net short position by 2,602 contracts as of Tuesday to 203,861 contracts.
Wheat failed to see gains at the closing bell on the week, as the Friday losses pushed thing to the red. Chicago SRW futures were back down 11 3/4, as well as the September KC HRW contract. MPLS spring wheat was the leader to the bear side, with September down 33 ½ cents. USDA’s Crop Production report showed wheat production rasied by 8 mbu to 1.929 bbu. Winter wheat production was down by 37 mbu to 1.345 bbu on a drop to acreage. Spring wheat came in above estimates at 504 mbu, with durum at 80 mbu. The larger US production and increased carryover was offset by an increase to exports by 25 mbu to 850 mbu, which trimmed stocks for new crop by 8 mbu to 890 mbu. Crop Progress data from Monday showed the US spring wheat crop at 61% headed. Ratings were down 3% to 48% good/excellent, with a Brugler500 index at 337, down 8 points. Winter wheat harvest picked to 53% complete by last Sunday. Condition ratings were tallied at 48% good/excellent, with the Brugler500 index up 2 points to 331. The weekly Export Sales report tallied US wheat 2025/26 business at 567,823 MT, back down from the previous marketing year high. Chicago wheat specs were cutting another 7,477 contracts from their net short as of Tuesday to 55,594 contracts. In KC wheat, they increased their net short by 971 contracts to 43,319 by July 8.
Soybeans were under pressure from the get-go, with August losing 51 ¼ cents and November down 42 cents. August soybean meal was $7.10/ton lower on the week, with August bean oil back down 80 points. USDA showed a steady ending stocks number for old crop soybeans at 350 mbu, as exports were raised by 15 and residual was cut by the same amount. New crop saw 5 mbu reduction to output, with a 50 mbu increase for crush and 70 mbu cut to exports, taking stocks 15 mbu higher to 310 mbu. USDA reported 32% of the US soybean crop blooming by 7/6, with 8% setting pods, ahead of the 5-year average. Condition ratings were steady this week at 66% good/excellent, with the Brugler500 index up 1 at 369. Export Sales data showed 2024/25 soybean bookings pushing 503,027 MT in the week of July 3. New crop business picked up in that week to 248,400 MT. CFTC data indicated managed money flipping to a net short of 6,216 contracts as of July 8th, a move of 6,641 contracts from their previous net long position.
Live cattle futures were one of the bright spots this week, with August rallying $8.15. A stronger cash market was helpful, as Southern trade was up $4-5 at $228-230, with Northern trade up $8-10 at $240. Feeders rallied $15.82 this week this week. Just as quick as the border reopened last week, USDA announced it was closed again along the US/Mexico border this week due to New World Screwworm working its way to 370 south of the border. The CME Feeder Cattle Index was back up $11.54 week/week to $323.37. Wholesale boxed beef pressure continued this week. Choice was down $11.11 (-2.9%) to $378.64, while Select was $11.95 (-3.2%) lower to $366.49. Weekly beef production was down 3.5% from the same week last year at 490.6 million lbs. Production year to date is 3.4% lower on a 6.5% decline in slaughter. Export Sales data showed 11,566 MT of beef sold in the week of July 3. Export Shipments were 14,051 MT. Money managers cut back their large net long position in live cattle futures and options by 1,039 contracts as of Tuesday to 128,423 contracts. In feeder cattle, specs added to their record net long position at 37,493 contracts, an increase of 3,607 contracts on the week.
Hogs extended the slide by another $1.42 this week, mainly on the Friday action. The CME Lean Hog Index was back down $3.08 this week at 107.14 as of July 9. USDA’s Pork Carcass Cutout rebounded by $3.26 on the week (3%) to $113.47/cwt. Just the rib was lower on the week, as the butt was up $5.76, the ham was up $4.72, with the picnic $4.01 higher. Weekly pork production was up 0.7% from the same post-4th week last year. Pork production year to date is down 1.8% on a 2.1% drop in slaughter. Export Sales data showed a total of 24,263 MT of pork sold in the week ending on July 3. Shipments were 30,093 MT in that week. CFTC data pegged spec funds in lean hog futures and options cutting 2,788 contracts from their net long position as of Tuesday, taking it to a net position of 131,799 contracts.
Cotton extended the pullback to another week, as December was down another 104 points this week. USDA trimmed old crop stocks on Friday via a 300,000 bale increase to exports. However, a 600,000 bale larger production figure added to the new crop balance sheet to raise that carryout total by 300,000 bales to 4.6 million bales. NASS Crop Progress data showed a total of 48% of the US cotton crop has been squared as of 7/6 and 14% setting bolls. Condition ratings were 52% good/excellent, up 1%, or 336 on the Brugler500 index. USDA Export Sales data showed 75,089 RB of old crop cotton bookings in the week ending on July 3. New crop business came in at 81,543 RB. Shipments were reported at 240,899 RB in that week. The FSA Adjusted World Price for cotton was back down 63 points this week, to 54.71 cents/lb. CFTC data indicated 3,180 contracts added to the spec fund net short as of Tuesday to 46,090 contracts.
Market Watch
Next week starts with the weekly Export Inspections and Crop Progress reports on Monday, as well as the expiration of July grain futures. On Tuesday, CPI data will be released, with NOPA crush data out that morning as well. July hog futures and options also expire on Tuesday. PPI data will be published on Wednesday morning, as the weekly EIA Petroleum Status Report will be out per normal. Thursday morning will see the release of the Export Sales report.
Tech Talk: November Soybeans
November soybeans have has a rough go lately. And if the chart patter in the last 2 months is any indication it’s not going to get better. We have a head and shoulders top on the chart, after breaking the neckline on Wednesday. That held as the closed out the week, which points to a count of $9.51 ¾. Now, that doesn’t mean we have to do there but odd are not in the bulls favor. There is an uptrend line at ~$9.80 if the round number at $10 fails like it did around “liberation day.” Stochastics are no quite oversold and are back to bearish.
There is a risk of loss in futures and options trading. Similar risks exist for cash commodity producers. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Copyright 2025 Brugler Marketing & Management. All rights reserved.
July Showers. Ag Marketing Report 07/14/2025
As we make our way through the growing season, the market is focusing hard on weather forecasts as we approach pollination. Obviously, this is a very key time for crop development where moisture is near it peak needs, and cool weather is preferred. We’re expected to see both across much of the Corn Belt. There’s an old saying that April showers bring May flowers, so what happens when the showers come in July? Well, the likely answer is a relatively good national yield, though none of that rhymes with showers. While I don’t have a catchy tune for what July showers bring (and while we understand, the crop is far from made) the prospects for a large crop are surely not shrinking right now. Maybe we’ll just stick with the turn that rain makes grain..
Corn gave the previous week’s gains, as futures gapped lower out of the gate, with September down 24 ¼ cents on the week. December was 24 ¾ cents lower this week. USDA slashed 75 mbu from their feed estimate on Friday, but raised exports by 100 mbu to trim the ending stocks projection by 25 mbu to 1.34 bbu. New crop production was down 115 mbu, with stocks cut by 90 mbu to 1.66 bbu. Weekly Crop Progress data pegged the US corn crop at 18% silking as of July 6, 3 points ahead of the 5-year average. Ratings were up 1% to 74% good to excellent, as the Brugler500 index was another 3 points higher to 385. EIA’s weekly report indicated ethanol production up 9,000 barrels per day from the week prior to 1.085 million bpd in the week of 7/4. Stocks of ethanol were down 158,000 barrels to 23.959 million barrels. Export Sales data showed 2024/25 corn bookings falling back to 1.262 MMT for the week that ended on July 3, with new crop at 888,562 MT. New crop sales totaled 940,159 MT. Specs trimmed back their large net short position by 2,602 contracts as of Tuesday to 203,861 contracts.
Wheat failed to see gains at the closing bell on the week, as the Friday losses pushed thing to the red. Chicago SRW futures were back down 11 3/4, as well as the September KC HRW contract. MPLS spring wheat was the leader to the bear side, with September down 33 ½ cents. USDA’s Crop Production report showed wheat production rasied by 8 mbu to 1.929 bbu. Winter wheat production was down by 37 mbu to 1.345 bbu on a drop to acreage. Spring wheat came in above estimates at 504 mbu, with durum at 80 mbu. The larger US production and increased carryover was offset by an increase to exports by 25 mbu to 850 mbu, which trimmed stocks for new crop by 8 mbu to 890 mbu. Crop Progress data from Monday showed the US spring wheat crop at 61% headed. Ratings were down 3% to 48% good/excellent, with a Brugler500 index at 337, down 8 points. Winter wheat harvest picked to 53% complete by last Sunday. Condition ratings were tallied at 48% good/excellent, with the Brugler500 index up 2 points to 331. The weekly Export Sales report tallied US wheat 2025/26 business at 567,823 MT, back down from the previous marketing year high. Chicago wheat specs were cutting another 7,477 contracts from their net short as of Tuesday to 55,594 contracts. In KC wheat, they increased their net short by 971 contracts to 43,319 by July 8.
Soybeans were under pressure from the get-go, with August losing 51 ¼ cents and November down 42 cents. August soybean meal was $7.10/ton lower on the week, with August bean oil back down 80 points. USDA showed a steady ending stocks number for old crop soybeans at 350 mbu, as exports were raised by 15 and residual was cut by the same amount. New crop saw 5 mbu reduction to output, with a 50 mbu increase for crush and 70 mbu cut to exports, taking stocks 15 mbu higher to 310 mbu. USDA reported 32% of the US soybean crop blooming by 7/6, with 8% setting pods, ahead of the 5-year average. Condition ratings were steady this week at 66% good/excellent, with the Brugler500 index up 1 at 369. Export Sales data showed 2024/25 soybean bookings pushing 503,027 MT in the week of July 3. New crop business picked up in that week to 248,400 MT. CFTC data indicated managed money flipping to a net short of 6,216 contracts as of July 8th, a move of 6,641 contracts from their previous net long position.
Live cattle futures were one of the bright spots this week, with August rallying $8.15. A stronger cash market was helpful, as Southern trade was up $4-5 at $228-230, with Northern trade up $8-10 at $240. Feeders rallied $15.82 this week this week. Just as quick as the border reopened last week, USDA announced it was closed again along the US/Mexico border this week due to New World Screwworm working its way to 370 south of the border. The CME Feeder Cattle Index was back up $11.54 week/week to $323.37. Wholesale boxed beef pressure continued this week. Choice was down $11.11 (-2.9%) to $378.64, while Select was $11.95 (-3.2%) lower to $366.49. Weekly beef production was down 3.5% from the same week last year at 490.6 million lbs. Production year to date is 3.4% lower on a 6.5% decline in slaughter. Export Sales data showed 11,566 MT of beef sold in the week of July 3. Export Shipments were 14,051 MT. Money managers cut back their large net long position in live cattle futures and options by 1,039 contracts as of Tuesday to 128,423 contracts. In feeder cattle, specs added to their record net long position at 37,493 contracts, an increase of 3,607 contracts on the week.
Hogs extended the slide by another $1.42 this week, mainly on the Friday action. The CME Lean Hog Index was back down $3.08 this week at 107.14 as of July 9. USDA’s Pork Carcass Cutout rebounded by $3.26 on the week (3%) to $113.47/cwt. Just the rib was lower on the week, as the butt was up $5.76, the ham was up $4.72, with the picnic $4.01 higher. Weekly pork production was up 0.7% from the same post-4th week last year. Pork production year to date is down 1.8% on a 2.1% drop in slaughter. Export Sales data showed a total of 24,263 MT of pork sold in the week ending on July 3. Shipments were 30,093 MT in that week. CFTC data pegged spec funds in lean hog futures and options cutting 2,788 contracts from their net long position as of Tuesday, taking it to a net position of 131,799 contracts.
Cotton extended the pullback to another week, as December was down another 104 points this week. USDA trimmed old crop stocks on Friday via a 300,000 bale increase to exports. However, a 600,000 bale larger production figure added to the new crop balance sheet to raise that carryout total by 300,000 bales to 4.6 million bales. NASS Crop Progress data showed a total of 48% of the US cotton crop has been squared as of 7/6 and 14% setting bolls. Condition ratings were 52% good/excellent, up 1%, or 336 on the Brugler500 index. USDA Export Sales data showed 75,089 RB of old crop cotton bookings in the week ending on July 3. New crop business came in at 81,543 RB. Shipments were reported at 240,899 RB in that week. The FSA Adjusted World Price for cotton was back down 63 points this week, to 54.71 cents/lb. CFTC data indicated 3,180 contracts added to the spec fund net short as of Tuesday to 46,090 contracts.
Market Watch
Next week starts with the weekly Export Inspections and Crop Progress reports on Monday, as well as the expiration of July grain futures. On Tuesday, CPI data will be released, with NOPA crush data out that morning as well. July hog futures and options also expire on Tuesday. PPI data will be published on Wednesday morning, as the weekly EIA Petroleum Status Report will be out per normal. Thursday morning will see the release of the Export Sales report.
Tech Talk: November Soybeans
November soybeans have has a rough go lately. And if the chart patter in the last 2 months is any indication it’s not going to get better. We have a head and shoulders top on the chart, after breaking the neckline on Wednesday. That held as the closed out the week, which points to a count of $9.51 ¾. Now, that doesn’t mean we have to do there but odd are not in the bulls favor. There is an uptrend line at ~$9.80 if the round number at $10 fails like it did around “liberation day.” Stochastics are no quite oversold and are back to bearish.
There is a risk of loss in futures and options trading. Similar risks exist for cash commodity producers. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Copyright 2025 Brugler Marketing & Management. All rights reserved.