Platinum and Palladium as a Weapon. Manic Metals Report 07/14/2025

With President Trump cracking down on Russian President Vladimir Putin,  will he decide to use platinum and palladium and diesel as a political weapon. Yes of course, we know that we use platinum and Palladium and things like missiles and jet engines but I’m talking about using platinum and Palladium as a political weapon,.
We often think about the times where OPEC used oil as a political weapon and the fears that Russia would also cut off supplies to Europe and would use that as a lever to get the European economy and the leaders to fall to their knees, but it is impossible that Russia could use the same type of potential tactic platinum and palladium.

President Trump is sending Patriot missiles to Ukraine, stating that NATO will cover the costs. This development has contributed to increased buying activity in the metals markets, which could result in significant changes.
Russia is a major global supplier of palladium, producing about 40% of the world’s supply—roughly 75 to 92 metric tons annually—and accounts for approximately 12–13% of global platinum output. While South Africa leads in platinum production, Russia remains a key exporter for both metals, largely through Norilsk Nickel, the world’s largest palladium producer.

A sudden halt in Russian palladium or platinum supplies would significantly impact the market. Palladium prices surged over 65% to more than $3,000 an ounce after Russia invaded Ukraine in March 2022. In late 2024, rumors of US-led G7 sanctions pushed palladium up 9% in a single day to over $1,150 an ounce.
Platinum would also see gains, but less dramatically due to Russia’s smaller market share.
Interestingly enough,  the open interest while falling 19 contracts from the previous week was still at a higher than normal 20,732 contracts manage money which is a key speculative subgroup is heavily short with 5233 contracts commercials on the other hand increased their position. Commercial hedgers are long 7694 contracts and are 37.1% of total open interest, that is an increase of 3185 contracts from the previous week.  Silver also reached its highest levels since 2011, while platinum and palladium also rose due to concerns that the United States might impose sanctions on Russia in response to its actions in Ukraine.
President Donald Trump expressed disappointment with Russian President Vladimir Putin, stating that he believed Putin would follow through on his statements, but observed inconsistencies in his actions. Trump mentioned there were issues in the relationship.
News reports say that Putin has increased attacks on Ukraine over the summer, deploying more than 500 drones and missiles almost daily. He has also ignored Trump’s calls for a ceasefire, while Kyiv has agreed to one if Russia stops attacking Ukraine.
NATO’s Rutte is scheduled to meet with Trump as well as with his Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth on Monday.
As we’ve mentioned in previous reports, we believe that silver is still undervalued compared to other metals especially gold yet we’ve been on a strong upward trajectory as we hit this new 14 year high with the potential run towards the all-time high.
Geopolitical factors are a consideration, given that countries such as Russia and Mexico account for 21% of global silver production. Silver serves dual purposes: it is used in industry and is also considered by some as a safe-haven asset, sometimes referred to as “the poor man’s gold” or “the poor man’s Bitcoin.”

President Trump’s tariffs on Canadian imports beginning August 1st, along with planned 15–20% tariffs on countries like Russia and Mexico, are prompting some haven buying. And on the daily and monthly chart after today’s breakout there is a lot of room on the upside but be prepared for a lot of volatility but look to buy breaks.

Copper and on the other hand have been struggling to bed as concerns about interest rates and sanctions is holding that market back just a little bit still good news out of the Chinese economy this morning should support prices as they are a major consumer.
Copper has faced challenges due to concerns over interest rates and sanctions, though positive news from China’s economy—being a major consumer—should help support prices.

Copper will focus on tomorrow’s second quarter GDP data coming from China which if it comes out better than the 5.4% to 5.5% year over year expected could cause a sharp rebound in the copper market. Long term we’re still very bullish on the copper as we think the structural shortage could cause copper prices to double within a year still be prepared for a lot of volatility before we get there.

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