Grains Report 07/11/2025

DJ USDA Report: Recap for U.S. Agriculture Supply, Demand
The following table of analysts’ estimates is provided as a service to The Wall Street Journal subscribers in conjunction with the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s monthly supply-and-demand report scheduled for release at noon ET on Friday.
U.S. 2025 Production (million bushels, bushels per acre)
Average Range USDA June USDA 2024
Corn Production 15,748 15,624-15,953 15,820 14,867
Soybean Production 4,331 4,290-4,340 4,340 4,366

Corn Yield 181.1 180.0-182.5 181.0 179.3
Soybean Yield 52.5 52.0-52.5 52.5 50.7
****
U.S. Stockpiles (millions)
2024-25
Average Range USDA June
Corn 1,342 1,300-1,415 1,365
Soybeans 358 329-380 350
Wheat 848 840-851 841

2025-26
Average Range USDA June
Corn 1,733 1,630-1,856 1,750
Soybeans 304 275-377 295
Wheat 893 842-923 898
****
World Stockpiles (million metric tons)
2024-25
Average Range USDA June
Corn 286.2 284.7-290.0 285.0
Soybeans 124.3 123.1-126.5 124.2
Wheat 264.3 264.0-265.0 264.0
2025-26
Average Range USDA June
Corn 276.8 275.0-280.0 275.2
Soybeans 125.5 124.3-126.0 125.3
Wheat 264.7 260.7-276.0 262.8
****
2025-26 Wheat Production
Average Range USDA June USDA 2024-25
All Wheat 1,903 1,846-1,956 1,921 1,971
Winter Wheat 1,349 1,297-1,401 1,382 1,349
Hard Red Winter 767 735-792 782 770
Soft Red Winter 338 309-353 345 342
White Winter 249 239-256 254 236
Other Spring 477 443-540 N/A 542
Durum 78 70-85 N/A 80
****
Brazil Corn, Soybean Production (million metric tons)
2024-25
Average Range USDA June
Corn 132.9 130.0-138.0 130.0
Soybeans 169.4 168.8-171.0 169.0
Argentina Corn, Soybean Production (million metric tons)
Average Range USDA June
Corn 50.0 49.0-50.5 50.0
Soybeans 49.3 49.0-50.0 49.0

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – Jul 11
Source: CME Group
Contract Quantity Next Trade
Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available
SOYBEAN MEAL July Jul 14, 2025 199 Jul 10, 2025
ROUGH RICE July Jul 14, 2025 60 Jul 09, 2025
CORN July Jul 14, 2025 33 Jul 08, 2025
KC HRW WHEAT July Jul 14, 2025 5 Jul 10, 2025
OATS July Jul 14, 2025 4 Jul 02, 2025
SOYBEAN July Jul 14, 2025 22 Jul 03, 2025

WHEAT
General Comments: All three Wheat markets closed higher yesterday, as the markets prepared for the release of the next USDA WASDE reports due later today. There was little selling interest seen on the day. Growing and harvesting conditions sre very good amid improved weather conditions. Strong yields are reported for crops in HRW and SRW areas. It had been hot and dry to the south, but the north saw rains last week to support Spring Wheat development. Southern areas are now seeing some rains and cooler temperatures this week. There are still reports that the weather has reduced production potential in Ukraine and Russia. Russia is forecasting a large reduction in Wheat production for the coming year. Winter crops in the Great Plains are reported to be in good condition, and Spring Wheat crops in the northern Great Plains and into Canada are generally in good condition.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to up Support is at 535, 521 and 508 September, with resistance at 568, 572, and 582 September. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 521, 516, and 504 September, with resistance at 550, 565, and 578 September. Trends in Minneapolis are not available.

RICE:
General Comments Rice was lower yesterday on selling seen in preparation for the WASDE reports to be released later today. Weaker Asian prices are still around and are still a drag on US futures. South America has been offering less. Chart trends are still mostly down on the daily charts. The cash market has been slow with mostly quiet domestic markets and average export demand. Milling quality of the Rice remains below industry standards and it takes more Rough Rice to create the grain for sale to stores and exporters. Rice is heading in most growing areas now. Condition has been rated as good and the ratings by USDA are above last year.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends are down. Support is at 1276, 1266, and 1254 September and resistance is at 1333, 1369, and 1392 September.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn was a little higher yesterday in consolidation trading before the release of the USDA WASDE reports later today. The weather forecasts remained cooler this week. Reduced heat and some showers are expected in the Midwest this week, but temperatures could turn warmer this weekend with more wet weather possible early next week. A moderate drought is seen near the Chicago area, but the drought area is shrinking. The rest of the Midwest has seen adequate or greater precipitation. Demand for Corn in world markets remains strong. Oats were higher
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed to down. Support is at 396, 393, and 390 September, and resistance is at 406, 414, and 418 September. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 366, 360, and 349 September, and resistance is at 383, 388, and 394 September.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and Soybean Meal were lower yesterday on good growing conditions in the Midwest. Soybean Oil was a little higher. Lower priced offers from Brazil in the world market are still important to the US price action. The market could remain under pressure as Brazil basis levels have been under pressure the last few weeks and prices in world markets for Brazil Soybeans are now less than those from the US. Export demand is in its seasonal doldrums. Export demand remains less for US Soybeans as China has been taking almost all the export from South America.
Overnight News: Mexico bought 219.900 tons of US Soybeans.
Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are down. Support is at 983, 970, and 958 August, and resistance is at 1017, 1025, and 1030 August. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to down. Support is at 268.00, 265.00, and 262.00 August, and resistance is at 276.00, 282.00, and 287.00 August. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 5150, 5080, and 4920 August, with resistance at 5600, 5720, and 5840 August.

PALM OIL AND CANOLA
General Comments: Palm Oil futures were higher yesterday on the back o Crude Oil fuztures. Ideas that current increased production levels mean higher inventories in MPOB monthly data are still around. Canola was higher. Trends are mixed on the daily charts and on the weekly charts. The weather has generally been dry for planting and crop development in the Prairies with warm and dry weather around lately.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are up. Support is at 683.00, 679.00, and 665.00 November, with resistance at 707.00, 717.00, and 738.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are up. Support is at 4080, 4010, and 3960 September, with resistance at 4210, 4270, and 4310 September.

DJ Malaysia’s June Palm Oil Exports 1.26M Tons; Down 11%, MPOB Says
Malaysia’s palm oil exports were down 11% on month at 1.26 million metric tons in June, the Malaysian Palm Oil Board said.
The following are details of the June crop data and revised numbers for May, issued by MPOB:
June May Change
On Month
Crude Palm Oil Output 1,692,310 1,771,621 Dn 4.48%
Palm Oil Exports 1,259,354 1,407,411 Dn 10.52%
Palm Kernel Oil Exports 86,173 119,020 Dn 27.6%
Palm Oil Imports 70,015 68,971 Up 1.51%
Closing Stocks 2,030,580 1,982,759 Up 2.41%
Crude Palm Oil 1,041,740 1,101,387 Dn 5.42%
Processed Palm Oil 988,840 881,372 Up 12.19%

Midwest Weather Forecast: Mostly dry. Temperatures should average near normal.

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – July 11
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Friday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jul 1017.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Aug/Sep 1017.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 1020.00 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 1027.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jul 1022.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Aug/Sep 1022.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 1025.00 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 1032.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jul 995.00 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jul 910.00 +07.50 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jul 4,160.00 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jul 413.00 +06.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.2505)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Jul 11
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 170,481 lots, or .70 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-25 – – – 4,150 4,150 4,150 0 0 1,194
Sep-25 4,105 4,118 4,081 4,101 4,110 4,098 -12 136,554 199,814
Nov-25 4,042 4,056 4,026 4,046 4,042 4,040 -2 22,834 70,306
Jan-26 4,026 4,045 4,016 4,034 4,025 4,027 2 7,342 26,646
Mar-26 4,017 4,035 4,009 4,026 4,018 4,021 3 3,617 23,233
May-26 4,056 4,068 4,045 4,060 4,051 4,056 5 134 850
Corn
Turnover: 636,815 lots, or 14.66 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-25 2,283 2,283 2,283 2,283 2,296 2,283 -13 1 4
Sep-25 2,320 2,323 2,304 2,306 2,318 2,312 -6 509,176 1,030,900
Nov-25 2,276 2,278 2,269 2,273 2,272 2,273 1 83,104 392,661
Jan-26 2,235 2,238 2,229 2,231 2,233 2,233 0 33,802 137,188
Mar-26 2,241 2,241 2,233 2,234 2,235 2,236 1 7,697 78,428
May-26 2,266 2,271 2,264 2,265 2,264 2,267 3 3,035 24,276
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,803,598 lots, or 53.27 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-25 – – – 2,802 2,802 2,802 0 0 2,016
Aug-25 2,943 2,966 2,934 2,957 2,925 2,952 27 75,053 93,250
Sep-25 2,952 2,985 2,952 2,976 2,943 2,971 28 1,089,715 2,008,008
Nov-25 2,989 3,023 2,989 3,013 2,983 3,009 26 122,267 657,765
Dec-25 3,016 3,046 3,014 3,037 3,011 3,034 23 23,171 123,631
Jan-26 2,994 3,020 2,993 3,015 2,988 3,009 21 268,784 1,114,718
Mar-26 2,857 2,883 2,857 2,875 2,854 2,871 17 73,622 375,793
May-26 2,706 2,710 2,699 2,704 2,701 2,704 3 150,986 562,845
Palm Oil
Turnover: 890,988 lots, or 77.38 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-25 – – – 8,620 8,620 8,620 0 0 384
Aug-25 8,634 8,806 8,604 8,700 8,664 8,708 44 7,515 4,769
Sep-25 8,600 8,796 8,590 8,682 8,628 8,686 58 772,262 512,798
Oct-25 8,630 8,784 8,598 8,660 8,628 8,698 70 3,916 5,317
Nov-25 8,598 8,750 8,580 8,630 8,606 8,648 42 495 1,228
Dec-25 8,596 8,760 8,586 8,640 8,606 8,660 54 194 616
Jan-26 8,606 8,774 8,572 8,648 8,602 8,672 70 101,862 157,597
Feb-26 8,542 8,710 8,542 8,632 8,574 8,654 80 34 934
Mar-26 8,504 8,660 8,494 8,572 8,520 8,576 56 89 294
Apr-26 8,556 8,578 8,528 8,528 8,452 8,552 100 6 99
May-26 8,392 8,546 8,378 8,438 8,400 8,450 50 4,605 9,046
Jun-26 8,412 8,498 8,402 8,434 8,368 8,448 80 10 50
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 426,841 lots, or 33.98 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-25 – – – 7,970 7,970 7,970 0 0 1,200
Aug-25 7,918 8,002 7,908 7,976 7,924 7,960 36 4,981 9,864
Sep-25 7,942 8,018 7,922 7,986 7,928 7,970 42 332,924 503,257
Nov-25 7,944 8,008 7,926 7,990 7,942 7,974 32 1,305 6,302
Dec-25 7,964 8,030 7,960 8,012 7,962 7,996 34 46 1,593
Jan-26 7,920 7,986 7,904 7,966 7,906 7,950 44 78,724 303,799
Mar-26 7,824 7,866 7,814 7,854 7,820 7,842 22 166 1,191
May-26 7,592 7,646 7,568 7,626 7,592 7,602 10 8,695 33,561
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322