Dan Flynn is the writer of The Corn & Ethanol Report, a daily market letter covering grains, energies, and various global issues that are the driving force and backbone of the commodity markets. Contact Mr. Flynn at (312) 264-4374
We kickoff the day with Exports Sales, Initial Jobless Claims, Continuing Jobless Claims, and Jobless Claims 4-Week Average at 7:30 A.M., Fed Musalem Speech at 9:00 A.M., EIA Natural Gas Storage at 9:30 A.M., 4-Week & 8-Week Bill Auction at 10:30 A.M., 15-Year & 30-Year Mortgage Rate at 11:00 A.M., 30-Year Bond Auction at 12:00 P.M., Fed Waller Speech at 12:15 P.M., fed Daly Speech at 1:30 P.M., and Fed Balance Sheet at 3:30 P.M.,
The Mortgage Banker’s Association’s weekly report showed that average contract interest rate for 30-Year fixed-rate mortgages was slightly lower for the week at 6.77%. Rates have declined in 4 of the last 6 weeks, and have been below a year ago the last 6 weeks, and have been below a year ago for 21 consecutive weeks. However, rates have been above 6.5% for 34 straight weeks, and were only briefly under 6.5% for 8 weeks in July 2024. The decline in rates continue to support mortgage demand, which jumped 9% last week and was 37% higher than a year ago. However, overall Mortgage demand in the previous 3 years has held at levels not seen since the late 1990’s and early 2000’s. Mortgage refinancing demand has also ticked higher in recent weeks, has been a record low over the last 3 years. Home sales continue to improve, and the Home Purchase index rose to the highest level since February 2023 last week at 180.9. The all-time high of 529 was set in June 2025. Next interest decision is July 30th.
Central US Weather Pattern Update
US Forecast: Wetter in Illinois/Indiana; Heat Relocated to Western Plains:
The Central US Forecast remains non-threatening into the final week of July, with abundant Midwest rainfall and maximum temperatures in the low to mid-870’s featured. The EU and GFS have together trended wetter in IL & IN, where rain is needed, and problem areas by late July will be minimal. Additional soaking rainfall of 1-2” favors NE, the Dakotas, IA, MN, & WI over the next 72 hours. Rainfall of .40-2.00 expands into the eastern Midwest Sun-Wed. Illinois will be impacted most early next week. The NOAA’s soil moisture anomalies projected change over the next two weeks shows deficits currently present in NE, N KS, and parts of IA will be eliminated. Surplus soil moisture will be present across the Upper Midwest, Southern Plains, and entire Delta/Southeast region on July 23rd. There’s no correlation between July precipitation but is followed by mild August temperatures. Stay Tuned.
Corn Comments & Analysis
CONAB Today & WASDE Tomorrow; CBOT Corn Break Pauses Ahead of July WASDE; Feed Market Oversupply Probable:
CONAB’s revision to safrinha corn is awaited in today’s data, and the USDA, in its July WASDE, is fully expected to leave both old and new crop US end stocks forecasts unchanged. A 50-100 Mil Bu hike in old crop exports will be offset by reduced feed/residual disappearance. New crop corn harvested acres will be reduced slightly, which could produce a small decline in US 2025/26. US corn end stocks if WASDE leaves its export estimate unchanged. Ag Resources (ARC) sees the WASDE 2025/26 corn export estimate as being 275-373 Mil Bu too high on larger Mexican and South American corn production amid a uncertain US trade landscape due to tariffs. The 8-15 day US weather forecast is wetter in the E Midwest and cooler in all areas. Trend yield potential remains intact in China. Soaking rain in Mexico has boosted crop potential. Vegetation health compared to last year shows potential for ’25 Mexican crop production to reach 25-26 MMT’s which triggers a 2-4 MMT’s fall in Mexico’s imports of US corn. Any post-USDA strength will be short-lived. And it’d the collision of larger US sorghum, HRW, and corn supplies corn pressures into harvest. Recoveries are selling opportunities for a drop to $3.60.
Have A Great Trading Day!
Contact me directly with any questions or open an account at 1-888-264-5665 or dflynn@pricegroup.com.
Powell Departure = Interest Rate Cuts? Housing MKT Boom to Follow. The Corn & Ethanol Report 07/10/2025
We kickoff the day with Exports Sales, Initial Jobless Claims, Continuing Jobless Claims, and Jobless Claims 4-Week Average at 7:30 A.M., Fed Musalem Speech at 9:00 A.M., EIA Natural Gas Storage at 9:30 A.M., 4-Week & 8-Week Bill Auction at 10:30 A.M., 15-Year & 30-Year Mortgage Rate at 11:00 A.M., 30-Year Bond Auction at 12:00 P.M., Fed Waller Speech at 12:15 P.M., fed Daly Speech at 1:30 P.M., and Fed Balance Sheet at 3:30 P.M.,
The Mortgage Banker’s Association’s weekly report showed that average contract interest rate for 30-Year fixed-rate mortgages was slightly lower for the week at 6.77%. Rates have declined in 4 of the last 6 weeks, and have been below a year ago the last 6 weeks, and have been below a year ago for 21 consecutive weeks. However, rates have been above 6.5% for 34 straight weeks, and were only briefly under 6.5% for 8 weeks in July 2024. The decline in rates continue to support mortgage demand, which jumped 9% last week and was 37% higher than a year ago. However, overall Mortgage demand in the previous 3 years has held at levels not seen since the late 1990’s and early 2000’s. Mortgage refinancing demand has also ticked higher in recent weeks, has been a record low over the last 3 years. Home sales continue to improve, and the Home Purchase index rose to the highest level since February 2023 last week at 180.9. The all-time high of 529 was set in June 2025. Next interest decision is July 30th.
Central US Weather Pattern Update
US Forecast: Wetter in Illinois/Indiana; Heat Relocated to Western Plains:
The Central US Forecast remains non-threatening into the final week of July, with abundant Midwest rainfall and maximum temperatures in the low to mid-870’s featured. The EU and GFS have together trended wetter in IL & IN, where rain is needed, and problem areas by late July will be minimal. Additional soaking rainfall of 1-2” favors NE, the Dakotas, IA, MN, & WI over the next 72 hours. Rainfall of .40-2.00 expands into the eastern Midwest Sun-Wed. Illinois will be impacted most early next week. The NOAA’s soil moisture anomalies projected change over the next two weeks shows deficits currently present in NE, N KS, and parts of IA will be eliminated. Surplus soil moisture will be present across the Upper Midwest, Southern Plains, and entire Delta/Southeast region on July 23rd. There’s no correlation between July precipitation but is followed by mild August temperatures. Stay Tuned.
Corn Comments & Analysis
CONAB Today & WASDE Tomorrow; CBOT Corn Break Pauses Ahead of July WASDE; Feed Market Oversupply Probable:
CONAB’s revision to safrinha corn is awaited in today’s data, and the USDA, in its July WASDE, is fully expected to leave both old and new crop US end stocks forecasts unchanged. A 50-100 Mil Bu hike in old crop exports will be offset by reduced feed/residual disappearance. New crop corn harvested acres will be reduced slightly, which could produce a small decline in US 2025/26. US corn end stocks if WASDE leaves its export estimate unchanged. Ag Resources (ARC) sees the WASDE 2025/26 corn export estimate as being 275-373 Mil Bu too high on larger Mexican and South American corn production amid a uncertain US trade landscape due to tariffs. The 8-15 day US weather forecast is wetter in the E Midwest and cooler in all areas. Trend yield potential remains intact in China. Soaking rain in Mexico has boosted crop potential. Vegetation health compared to last year shows potential for ’25 Mexican crop production to reach 25-26 MMT’s which triggers a 2-4 MMT’s fall in Mexico’s imports of US corn. Any post-USDA strength will be short-lived. And it’d the collision of larger US sorghum, HRW, and corn supplies corn pressures into harvest. Recoveries are selling opportunities for a drop to $3.60.
Have A Great Trading Day!
Contact me directly with any questions or open an account at 1-888-264-5665 or dflynn@pricegroup.com.
Thanks,
Dan Flynn
Questions? Ask Dan Flynn today at 312-264-4374