Softs Report 07/08/2025

COTTON
General Comments: Cotton was lower yesterday despite higher Crude Oil futures as export hopes remain less and as growing conditions are generally improving. here are still reports of better weather for planting in Texas and on demand concerns caused by the tariff wars and after USDA reported moderate to poor weekly export sales. Planting conditions remain good in Texas, but it is still too wet in the Delta and Southeast. It has been hot in most areas. Condition is rated behind last year. The monsoon in India is off to a good start and a good production there is possible.
Overnight News: The USDA average price is now 68.10 ct/lb. ICE said that 0 contracts were posted for delivery against July futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 226 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 67.00, 66.20, and 64.30 December, with resistance of 69.90, 70.50 and 70.90 December.

This Week Last Week Last Year Average
Cotton Squaring 48 40 51 48
Cotton Setting Bolls 14 9 18 15
Very Poor Poor Fair Good Excellent
Cotton This Week 6 11 31 45 7
Cotton Last Week 5 12 32 44 7
Cotton Last Year 10 13 32 37 8

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of July 01, 2025
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
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COTTON NO. 2 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #033661 Open Interest is 236,600
: Positions :
: 25,428 80,570 52,626 65,603 78,112 80,394 13,947 224,052 225,255: 12,549 11,345
: Changes from: June 24, 2025 (Change in open interest: -2,668) :
: -3,862 -8,653 -356 -716 7,018 2,476 811 -2,459 -1,181: -209 -1,487
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 10.7 34.1 22.2 27.7 33.0 34.0 5.9 94.7 95.2: 5.3 4.8
: Total Traders: 320 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 79 110 89 70 60 46 23 245 234:
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FCOJ
General Comments: Futures were higher yesterday. Trends have zturned mixed. Development conditions are good in Florida now with daily rounds of showers. The poor production potential for the crops comes from weather but also the greening disease that has caused many Florida producers to lose trees. The weather so far this year is improved with scattered showers adding to soil moisture and helping with tree health.
Overnight News: ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against July futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 50 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 199.00, 188.00, and 176.00 September, with resistance at 236.00, 258.00, and 273.00 September.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of June 24, 2025
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
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FRZN CONCENTRATED ORANGE JUICE – ICE FUTURES U.S. (CONTRACTS OF 15,000 POUNDS) :
CFTC Code #040701 Open Interest is 11,354 :
: Positions :
: 3,132 5,610 564 0 113 1,686 1,681 32 2,373 148 1,887 :
: Changes from: June 17, 2025 :
: -534 -1,233 38 0 -104 -130 492 18 121 75 -824 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 27.6 49.4 5.0 0.0 1.0 14.8 14.8 0.3 20.9 1.3 16.6 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 54 :
: 8 8 4 0 . 6 12 . 17 . 8 :
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COFFEE
General Comments: Both markets closed lower yesterday on reports of good growing conditions in most production regions of the world but especially in Brazil. New ork was lower for the week while London was higher. Prices have now been dropping for several weeks and are much more moderate than before as supplies available to the market have ticked up. The Brazil Robusta harvest continues, and Indonesia continues to harvest. Vietnam is done with its harvest and domestic price were firm last week. The Brazil Arabica harvest is starting to expand and is expected to be less this year as news reports indicate that many cherries have fallen from the trees. Vietnam exported 943,000 tons of coffee in the January-June period, up 4.1% from the same period last year Brazil exported 133,863 tons of green coffee in June, down 34% from the 203,278 tons in the same month last year.
Overnight News: The ICO average price is 253.82 ct/lb. ICE NY said that 9 notices were posted for delivery against July futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 79 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down. Support is at 276.00, 270.00, and 264.00 September, and resistance is at 294.00, 302.00 and 328.00 September. Trends in London are mixed to down. Support is at 3460, 3380, and 3320 September, with resistance at 3750, 3960, and 4130 September.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of July 01, 2025
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COFFEE C – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #083731 Open Interest is 192,260
: Positions :
: 29,140 14,447 61,218 53,173 102,393 40,969 8,449 184,500 186,509: 7,760 5,752
: Changes from: June 24, 2025 (Change in open interest: 8,462) :
: -119 1,186 6,234 3,121 1,095 -41 1,081 9,195 9,596: -733 -1,134
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 15.2 7.5 31.8 27.7 53.3 21.3 4.4 96.0 97.0: 4.0 3.0
: Total Traders: 331 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 92 71 99 89 103 45 19 274 249:
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SUGAR
General Comments: Both markets were lower last week as the weather remains generally good around the world for crops. Ideas of good supplies for the market continue and have been responsible for the recent price weakness. The South Center Brazil harvest is faster now amid drier conditions. Production in Centre-South Brazil has also been stronger than expected in recent weeks. Good growing conditions are reported in India and Thailand after a fast start to the Monsoon season. The Monsoon has featured above average rains but recent rains have been less in India, especially in southern areas. Good rains are still reported in Thailand. Sugar prices in Brazil are now cheap enough that at least some refiners could increase ethanol production and cut back on Sugar production. Sugarcane used to produce sugar in the Center-South region of Brazil rose to 51.5% in the first half of June, up from 49.7% a year earlier. Brazil exported 3.36 million tons of sugar in June, up 5.2% from the 3.19 million tons in the same month last year.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 1540, 1500, and 1440 October and resistance is at 1650, 1680, and 1700 October. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 446.00, 440.00, and 434.00 October, with resistance at 475.00, 480.00, and 486.00 October.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of July 01, 2025
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SUGAR NO. 11 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #080732 Open Interest is 975,567
: Positions :
: 108,407 233,241 207,955 346,991 399,609 246,534 60,940 909,887 901,745: 65,679 73,822
: Changes from: June 24, 2025 (Change in open interest: -1,300) :
: -1,864 13,767 17,238 -6,833 -29,985 -149 3,014 8,392 4,034: -9,692 -5,334
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 11.1 23.9 21.3 35.6 41.0 25.3 6.2 93.3 92.4: 6.7 7.6
: Total Traders: 252 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 57 77 82 68 59 35 20 212 190:
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COCOA
General Comments: New York and London were higher yesterday and New York held the lows of last week. There are still reports of increased production potential in other countries outside of West Africa, including Asia and Central America. The market anticipates good demand and less production from Ivory Coast and Ghana. Pod counts for the mid crop suggested there is unlikely to be a significant recovery in production this season, and current weather is has seen increased rain for the crops for the coming crop. Adequate soil moisture in Ivory Coast is fostering abundant flowering on trees, signaling a healthy October-to-March main crop despite mainly below-average rain in most of the main growing regions last week. Good soil moisture in most of Ivory Coast’s cocoa-growing regions is encouraging strong flowering for the coming October-to-March main crop despite below-average rainfall last week.
Overnight News: ICE NY said that 17 contracts were tendered against July futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 749 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down. Support is at 7780, 7640, and 7520 July, with resistance at 8900, 9290, and 9450 July. Trends in London are down. Support is at 5200, 5080, and 4960 July, with resistance at 6000, 6160, and 6480 July.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of July 01, 2025
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COCOA – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #073732 Open Interest is 111,207
: Positions :
: 16,373 13,275 30,111 34,286 53,347 20,398 8,413 101,169 105,146: 10,038 6,061
: Changes from: June 24, 2025 (Change in open interest: 2,717) :
: 351 -189 303 1,770 2,576 1,004 272 3,428 2,962: -711 -245
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 14.7 11.9 27.1 30.8 48.0 18.3 7.6 91.0 94.5: 9.0 5.5
: Total Traders: 158 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 45 39 51 34 33 30 13 138 109:
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Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322