Last week’s lead in was all about a premature detonation. The question of course was if it was that or if we were finally taking off. Well, a few contract lows later in corn, continued pressure from beans and wheat despite a (not bearish) USDA report, and a brief scare in the cattle due to the border reopening answered the question. And this we had the Wednesday action. The grains all had double digit gains, with the cattle taking losses back. So was it just a delayed fuse this time? Or did the shorts I the grains provide a little green on the screens ahead of a three-day weekend (during a growing season) and unknowns with President Trumps Thursday evening talk in Iowa? We’ll likely have some sort of answer on Monday, which could see some fireworks. I’ve seen plenty coming out of a July 3-day weekend before…
Corn bulls battled back this week despite a dud of a start, with September up 8 ¾ cents this and December clawing back a dime. Monday’s June Acreage report was an uneventful one, with corn acres tallied at 95.203 million acres, down jut 123,000 acres from the March number. June 1 Grain Stocks were at 4.643 bbu, a 354 mbu drop from last year. Crop Progress pegged the US corn crop at 8% silking as of June 22, 2 points ahead of the 5-year average. Ratings were back up 3% to 73% good to excellent, as the Brugler500 index was 6 points higher to 382. EIA’s weekly report indicated ethanol production pulling back another 5,000 barrels per day from the week prior to 1.076 million bpd in the week of 6/27. Stocks of ethanol were down 287,000 barrels to 24.117 million barrels. The Grain Crushing report showed 449.44 mbu of corn used for ethanol production in May, a jump of 6.2% from April but down 1.31% from 2024. Export Sales data showed 2024/25 corn bookings falling back to 532,745 MT for the week that ended on June 26. New crop sales totaled 940,159 MT. Census showed 287 mbu of corn exported in May, which was up 22.14% from last year but down 6.4% below April. Distiller exports were up 918,108 MT, which was still 9.31% below last year, as ethanol exports were a record for the month at 184.67 million gallons.
Wheat was stronger this week, assisted by the other grains. Chicago SRW futures popped higher by 16 cents this week, with KC HRW up just 2 1/4 cents. MPLS spring wheat futures were 19 ¼ cents in the green on the week. Grain Stocks data indicated 850 mbu of wheat on hand as of June 1, up 154 mbu from a year ago. Acreage for this spring as up 128,000 from March at 45.478 million acres, though harvested acres were down 883,000 acres for winter wheat from the June Crop Production report. Crop Progress data from Monday showed the US spring wheat crop at 38% headed. Ratings were down 2% to 53% good/excellent, with a Brugler500 index at 345, up 5 points. Winter wheat harvest picked up a little, at 37% complete by last Sunday, vs. 42% on average. Condition ratings were tallied at 48% good/excellent, down 1%, with the Brugler500 index down 1 point to 329. The weekly Export Sales report tallied US wheat 2025/26 business at just 585,989 MT, a marketing year high. Census data was showed 79.4 mbu of wheat exported in May, a 4-year high.
Soybeans took back some gains this week, with August up 22 ¼ cents and November climbing 24 ½ cents. August soybean meal was up $1.80/ton on the week, with August bean oil back up 207 points. Grain Stocks data from Monday showed bean stocks up 37 mbu from a year ago at 1.007 bbu. The June Acreage report showed 83.38 million acres for soybeans this spring, down 115,000 acres from March. USDA’s Crop Progress report indicated 94% of the US soybean crop emerged by 6/29, with 17% blooming and 3% setting pods, all ahead of the 5-year average. Condition ratings were steady this week at 66% good/excellent, with the Brugler500 index up 1 at 368. Fats & Oils data indicated 203.7 mbu of soybean crushed during May, a 0.65% increase from April and 6.3% above last year. Export Sales data showed 2024/25 soybean bookings pushing 462,435 MT in the week of June 26. New crop business picked up in that week to 239,046 MT. Census data for May exports showed 58.6 mbu of soybeans shipped. Meal exports were 1.36 MMT, which was a record for May, as bean oil shipments were a 5-year May high at 142,303 MT.
Live cattle futures were in firming mode this week up 75 cents. The cash market slowed the skid this week, with southern sales mainly at $222-225, steady to down $1, with northern action steady at $230-233. Feeders were up $1.60 this week, despite an announcement of the border reopening along the US/Mexico border. The CME Feeder Cattle Index was back down 14 cents week/week to $311.83. Wholesale boxed beef prices were under some pressure this week as July 4th buying was locked up. Choice was down $6.76 (-1.7%) to $389.75, while Select was $4.51 (-1.2%) lower to $378.44. Export Sales data showed a total of 11,436 MT of beef sold for shipment in the week ending on 6/26. Actual shipments were 14,825 MT. May beef exports totaled just 228.9 million lbs via to Census data, which was the lowest since 2017 for the month.
Hogs were in liquidation mode this week, as July was down $5.27 on the week that saw cash and cutout pressure. The CME Lean Hog Index was back down $1.67 this week at 110.22 as of July 1. USDA’s Pork Carcass Cutout fell another $7.25 on the week (6.2%) to $110.21/cwt. Just the picnic was higher on the week. The weekly Export Sales report indicated a total of just 27,130 MT of pork was sold in the week of 6/26, a 3-week low. Shipments were a 4-week low of 30,068 MT. Monthly export data showed 564.6 million lbs of pork shipped in May, a 3-year low for the month and down 3.1% from April.
Cotton gave back some gains this week, with December slipping 86 points. The annual Acreage report from USDA showed 10.12 million cotton acres planted this spring, above 9.867 million acre March Intentions report. NASS Crop Progress data showed a total of 95% of the US cotton crop has been planted as of last Sunday, with 40% squared and 9% setting bolls . Condition ratings were 51% good/excellent, up 4%, or 339 on the Brugler500 index, up 9 points on the week. Export Sales data showed just 23,680 RB of 2024/25 cotton sold in the week ending on June 26, a MY low. Sales for new crop were 106,584 RB. Export shipments were a 4-week high at 255,770 RB. Census exports for May were 1.26 million bales, down 24.08% from April, but up 24.11% from a year ago. The FSA Adjusted World Price for cotton was 116 points higher this week, to 55.34 cents/lb.
Market Watch
Coming out of the three day weekend the market will have a normal open for the Monday session. We’ll start off with the weekly Export Inspections and Crop Progress reports. The weekly EIA Petroleum Status Report will be released on Wednesday per normal. Wednesday is also the last trading day for July cotton futures. Thursday morning will see the release of the Export Sales report. The July WASDE and Crop Production reports will be released on Friday.
Tech Talk: December Corn
December corn looks a little better after the late week movement. Tuesday started things with a hammer candlestick, which can be considered a reversal if there is follow through to the upside. That found support near the 1.618 Fib expansion support at $4.16. It also made its way back above the previously broken trendline off the triangle formation. That count of $4 can be ignored for now. Stochastics had a nice buy signal this week, with MACD (indecisive lately) back to bullish on Thursday. The only negative from the end of the week was the fact that we rallied right to the downtrend line from the April high at $4.42 ¼ and proceeded to pull off it by a nickel into the close. If you want to be friendly corn, that is the point to break. Or at least a start. Then we can start talking $4.50ish. If not we may be headed back in the direction of $4. Depending on any major announcements and/or weather changes over the weekend, we could see an interesting open in Sunday.
There is a risk of loss in futures and options trading. Similar risks exist for cash commodity producers. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Copyright 2025 Brugler Marketing & Management. All rights reserved.
Delayed Fuse? Ag Marketing Report 07/07/2025
Last week’s lead in was all about a premature detonation. The question of course was if it was that or if we were finally taking off. Well, a few contract lows later in corn, continued pressure from beans and wheat despite a (not bearish) USDA report, and a brief scare in the cattle due to the border reopening answered the question. And this we had the Wednesday action. The grains all had double digit gains, with the cattle taking losses back. So was it just a delayed fuse this time? Or did the shorts I the grains provide a little green on the screens ahead of a three-day weekend (during a growing season) and unknowns with President Trumps Thursday evening talk in Iowa? We’ll likely have some sort of answer on Monday, which could see some fireworks. I’ve seen plenty coming out of a July 3-day weekend before…
Corn bulls battled back this week despite a dud of a start, with September up 8 ¾ cents this and December clawing back a dime. Monday’s June Acreage report was an uneventful one, with corn acres tallied at 95.203 million acres, down jut 123,000 acres from the March number. June 1 Grain Stocks were at 4.643 bbu, a 354 mbu drop from last year. Crop Progress pegged the US corn crop at 8% silking as of June 22, 2 points ahead of the 5-year average. Ratings were back up 3% to 73% good to excellent, as the Brugler500 index was 6 points higher to 382. EIA’s weekly report indicated ethanol production pulling back another 5,000 barrels per day from the week prior to 1.076 million bpd in the week of 6/27. Stocks of ethanol were down 287,000 barrels to 24.117 million barrels. The Grain Crushing report showed 449.44 mbu of corn used for ethanol production in May, a jump of 6.2% from April but down 1.31% from 2024. Export Sales data showed 2024/25 corn bookings falling back to 532,745 MT for the week that ended on June 26. New crop sales totaled 940,159 MT. Census showed 287 mbu of corn exported in May, which was up 22.14% from last year but down 6.4% below April. Distiller exports were up 918,108 MT, which was still 9.31% below last year, as ethanol exports were a record for the month at 184.67 million gallons.
Wheat was stronger this week, assisted by the other grains. Chicago SRW futures popped higher by 16 cents this week, with KC HRW up just 2 1/4 cents. MPLS spring wheat futures were 19 ¼ cents in the green on the week. Grain Stocks data indicated 850 mbu of wheat on hand as of June 1, up 154 mbu from a year ago. Acreage for this spring as up 128,000 from March at 45.478 million acres, though harvested acres were down 883,000 acres for winter wheat from the June Crop Production report. Crop Progress data from Monday showed the US spring wheat crop at 38% headed. Ratings were down 2% to 53% good/excellent, with a Brugler500 index at 345, up 5 points. Winter wheat harvest picked up a little, at 37% complete by last Sunday, vs. 42% on average. Condition ratings were tallied at 48% good/excellent, down 1%, with the Brugler500 index down 1 point to 329. The weekly Export Sales report tallied US wheat 2025/26 business at just 585,989 MT, a marketing year high. Census data was showed 79.4 mbu of wheat exported in May, a 4-year high.
Soybeans took back some gains this week, with August up 22 ¼ cents and November climbing 24 ½ cents. August soybean meal was up $1.80/ton on the week, with August bean oil back up 207 points. Grain Stocks data from Monday showed bean stocks up 37 mbu from a year ago at 1.007 bbu. The June Acreage report showed 83.38 million acres for soybeans this spring, down 115,000 acres from March. USDA’s Crop Progress report indicated 94% of the US soybean crop emerged by 6/29, with 17% blooming and 3% setting pods, all ahead of the 5-year average. Condition ratings were steady this week at 66% good/excellent, with the Brugler500 index up 1 at 368. Fats & Oils data indicated 203.7 mbu of soybean crushed during May, a 0.65% increase from April and 6.3% above last year. Export Sales data showed 2024/25 soybean bookings pushing 462,435 MT in the week of June 26. New crop business picked up in that week to 239,046 MT. Census data for May exports showed 58.6 mbu of soybeans shipped. Meal exports were 1.36 MMT, which was a record for May, as bean oil shipments were a 5-year May high at 142,303 MT.
Live cattle futures were in firming mode this week up 75 cents. The cash market slowed the skid this week, with southern sales mainly at $222-225, steady to down $1, with northern action steady at $230-233. Feeders were up $1.60 this week, despite an announcement of the border reopening along the US/Mexico border. The CME Feeder Cattle Index was back down 14 cents week/week to $311.83. Wholesale boxed beef prices were under some pressure this week as July 4th buying was locked up. Choice was down $6.76 (-1.7%) to $389.75, while Select was $4.51 (-1.2%) lower to $378.44. Export Sales data showed a total of 11,436 MT of beef sold for shipment in the week ending on 6/26. Actual shipments were 14,825 MT. May beef exports totaled just 228.9 million lbs via to Census data, which was the lowest since 2017 for the month.
Hogs were in liquidation mode this week, as July was down $5.27 on the week that saw cash and cutout pressure. The CME Lean Hog Index was back down $1.67 this week at 110.22 as of July 1. USDA’s Pork Carcass Cutout fell another $7.25 on the week (6.2%) to $110.21/cwt. Just the picnic was higher on the week. The weekly Export Sales report indicated a total of just 27,130 MT of pork was sold in the week of 6/26, a 3-week low. Shipments were a 4-week low of 30,068 MT. Monthly export data showed 564.6 million lbs of pork shipped in May, a 3-year low for the month and down 3.1% from April.
Cotton gave back some gains this week, with December slipping 86 points. The annual Acreage report from USDA showed 10.12 million cotton acres planted this spring, above 9.867 million acre March Intentions report. NASS Crop Progress data showed a total of 95% of the US cotton crop has been planted as of last Sunday, with 40% squared and 9% setting bolls . Condition ratings were 51% good/excellent, up 4%, or 339 on the Brugler500 index, up 9 points on the week. Export Sales data showed just 23,680 RB of 2024/25 cotton sold in the week ending on June 26, a MY low. Sales for new crop were 106,584 RB. Export shipments were a 4-week high at 255,770 RB. Census exports for May were 1.26 million bales, down 24.08% from April, but up 24.11% from a year ago. The FSA Adjusted World Price for cotton was 116 points higher this week, to 55.34 cents/lb.
Market Watch
Coming out of the three day weekend the market will have a normal open for the Monday session. We’ll start off with the weekly Export Inspections and Crop Progress reports. The weekly EIA Petroleum Status Report will be released on Wednesday per normal. Wednesday is also the last trading day for July cotton futures. Thursday morning will see the release of the Export Sales report. The July WASDE and Crop Production reports will be released on Friday.
Tech Talk: December Corn
December corn looks a little better after the late week movement. Tuesday started things with a hammer candlestick, which can be considered a reversal if there is follow through to the upside. That found support near the 1.618 Fib expansion support at $4.16. It also made its way back above the previously broken trendline off the triangle formation. That count of $4 can be ignored for now. Stochastics had a nice buy signal this week, with MACD (indecisive lately) back to bullish on Thursday. The only negative from the end of the week was the fact that we rallied right to the downtrend line from the April high at $4.42 ¼ and proceeded to pull off it by a nickel into the close. If you want to be friendly corn, that is the point to break. Or at least a start. Then we can start talking $4.50ish. If not we may be headed back in the direction of $4. Depending on any major announcements and/or weather changes over the weekend, we could see an interesting open in Sunday.
There is a risk of loss in futures and options trading. Similar risks exist for cash commodity producers. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Copyright 2025 Brugler Marketing & Management. All rights reserved.