Softs Report 07/02/2025

COTTON
General Comments: Cotton was a little lower yesterday after trading both sides of unchanged. USDA estimated Cotton planted area at 10.12 million acres which was on the high end of trade expectations. There are still reports of better weather for planting in Texas and on demand concerns caused by the tariff wars and after USDA reported moderate to poor weekly export sales. Planting conditions remain good in Texas, but it is still too wet in the Delta and Southeast. It has been hot in most areas. Condition is rated behind last year. The monsoon in India is off to a good start and a good production there is possible.
Overnight News: The USDA average price is now 68.99 ct/lb. ICE said that 1 contract was posted for delivery against July futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 226 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 67.00, 66.20, and 64.30 December, with resistance of 69.90, 70.50 and 70.90 December.

FCOJ
General Comments: Futures were lower again yesterday and closed at new lows for the move on the daily charts. Trends are down. Development conditions are good in Florida now with daily rounds of showers. Production estimates from USDA remain well below those from a year ago. USDA estimated Florida production up slightly from the previous estimate at 12.0 million boxes, but that is still down 34% from last year. All US production was also a little higher from the previous report, but still down 37% for the year. The poor production potential for the crops comes from weather but also the greening disease that has caused many Florida producers to lose trees. The weather so far this year is improved with scattered showers adding to soil moisture and helping with tree health.
Overnight News: ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against July futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 50 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed to down. Support is at 216.00, 199.00, and 188.00 September, with resistance at 236.00, 258.00, and 273.00 September.

COFFEE
General Comments: New York closed lower yesterday but London closed higher. Reports of colder temperature in Brazil growing areas did little or no damage to crops and temperatures have moderated. Prices have now been dropping for several weeks and are much more moderate than before as supplies available to the market have ticked up. The Brazil Robusta harvest continues, and Indonesia continues to harvest. Vietnam is done with its harvest and domestic price were firm last week. The Brazil Arabica harvest is starting to expand and is expected to be less this year as news reports indicate that many cherries have fallen from the trees.
Overnight News: The ICO average price is 262.19 ct/lb. ICE NY said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against July futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 75 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down. Support is at 288.00, 282.00, and 276.00 September, and resistance is at 308.00, 312.00 and 328.00 September. Trends in London are mixed to down. Support is at 3460, 3380, and 3320 September, with resistance at 3960, 4140, and 4390 September.

SUGAR
General Comments: New York and London closed lower again as the weather remains generally good around the world for crops.. Ideas of good supplies for the market continue and have been responsible for the price weakness. The South Center Brazil harvest is faster now amid drier conditions. Production in Centre-South Brazil has also been stronger than expected in recent weeks. Good growing conditions are reported in India and Thailand after a fast start to the Monsoon season. The Monsoon has featured above average rains but recent rains have been less in India, especially in southern areas. Good rains are still reported in Thailand. Sugar prices in Brazil are now cheap enough that at least some refiners could increase ethanol production and cut back on Sugar production. Sugarcane used to produce sugar in the Center-South region of Brazil rose to 51.5% in the first half of June, up from 49.7% a year earlier.
Overnight News: ICE NY said thatz 888 contracts were delivered against July contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down. Support is at 1560, 1500, and 1440 October and resistance is at 1650, 1680, and 1700 October. Trends in London are down. Support is at 452.00, 446.00, and 440.00 October, with resistance at 467.00, 475.00, and 480.00 October.

COCOA
General Comments: New York and London were lower yesterday. There are still reports of increased production potential in other countries outside of West Africa, including Asia and Central America. The market anticipates good demand and less production from Ivory Coast and Ghana. Pod counts for the mid crop suggested there is unlikely to be a significant recovery in production this season, and current weather is has seen increased rain for the crops for the coming crop. Adequate soil moisture in Ivory Coast is fostering abundant flowering on trees, signaling a healthy October-to-March main crop despite mainly below-average rain in most of the main growing regions last week
Overnight News: ICE NY said that 0 contracts were tendered against July futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 732 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down. Support is at 8300, 8090, and 7780 July, with resistance at 8900, 9290, and 9450 July. Trends in London are mixed to down. Support is at 5660, 5540, and 5420 July, with resistance at 6000, 6160, and 6480 July.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322