Dan Flynn is the writer of The Corn & Ethanol Report, a daily market letter covering grains, energies, and various global issues that are the driving force and backbone of the commodity markets. Contact Mr. Flynn at (312) 264-4374
We kickoff the day with MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate, MBA Mortgage applications, MBA Mortgage Market Index, MBA Mortgage Refinance Index, and MBA Purchase Index at 6:00 A.M., Challenger Job Cuts at 6:30 A.M., ADP Employment Change at 7:15 A.M., EIA Energy Stocks at 9:30 A.M., 17-Week Bill Auction at 10:30 A.M., Dairy Products Sales at 2:00 P.M., and Total Vehicle Sales.
Purdue University’s Ag Economy Barometer reflected a downturn in farmer sentiment in June, as the outlook for future expectations weakened. The Ag Economy Barometer slipped 12 points to a 3-month low of 146, but was still 31 points higher than in June 2024. Much of this weakness was do to a decline in the Future Expectations index, which fell 18 points to a 3-month low of 146, compared to 112 last year. While producers’ outlook for the future dampened from the high in April, the index of Current Conditions was down just 2 points from May to 144, which was 54 points higher than a year ago. Farmers Financial outlook for 2025 weakend somewhat, but remained significantly brighter than 2024, while the short-term outlook for farmland values ticked lower after reaching a multi-year high in May. Overall, farmer sentiment declined in June, but producers’ perspectives and outlooks remained at multi-year highs.
Central US Weather Pattern Update
Rain Favors Upper Midwest into Mid-July; Extreme Heat Absent:
The Central US forecast is consistent with prior runs and is viewed as non-threatening. Notably, ARC projects the US corn crop nationally to be 20-22% silking by this weekend. The absence of excessive heat and surplus soil moisture is noteworthy. Any real meaningful dryness is confined to far northern Illinois. This reflects the impact of a wet June. Additional rainfall of .50-2.00” is projected across the Central Plains, MO, IA, MN, WI, and most of southern IL. Totals in excess 1” favors KS, NE, MO, IA. The timing of this additional boost in soil moisture across C Plains and the W. Corn Belt is nearly ideal. ARC Notes that corn in KS is 22% silking and corn in MO is 19% silking.
Corn Comments & Analysis
CBOT Corn Ends Weak Amid Rising US Yield Potential:
CBOT corn futures ended lower following Monday’s unexpected 3% jump in US GD/EX corn ratings. South American fob markets remain firm amid the slow pace of Brazilian safrinha harvesting. US and World corn prices are hyper focused on new crop supplies. The LA corn crop is 35% dented and will be ready for harvest in late July and early August. Gulf corn yields are forecast to be record large. Late June crop ratings (% GD/EX) against final yield performance against the trend since 2015. Amid the current GD/EX against at 73%, and amid non-threatening forecast into July 15th, odds are high & rising that the US national yield exceeds trend for the first time since 2018! Mathematically, a US corn yield gain of 3% is forecast or a range of yields at 185-188 BPA. This would push 2025/26 US corn end stocks to 2.3-2.5 Bil Bu at the start of the crop year. It’s the heaviness and size of US and world cash corn supplies on September 1st that keep downside price pressures in place. Harvest lows are forecast at $3.50-$3.75 December.
Corn Prices – Look Out Below. The Corn & Ethanol Report 07/02/2025
We kickoff the day with MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate, MBA Mortgage applications, MBA Mortgage Market Index, MBA Mortgage Refinance Index, and MBA Purchase Index at 6:00 A.M., Challenger Job Cuts at 6:30 A.M., ADP Employment Change at 7:15 A.M., EIA Energy Stocks at 9:30 A.M., 17-Week Bill Auction at 10:30 A.M., Dairy Products Sales at 2:00 P.M., and Total Vehicle Sales.
Purdue University’s Ag Economy Barometer reflected a downturn in farmer sentiment in June, as the outlook for future expectations weakened. The Ag Economy Barometer slipped 12 points to a 3-month low of 146, but was still 31 points higher than in June 2024. Much of this weakness was do to a decline in the Future Expectations index, which fell 18 points to a 3-month low of 146, compared to 112 last year. While producers’ outlook for the future dampened from the high in April, the index of Current Conditions was down just 2 points from May to 144, which was 54 points higher than a year ago. Farmers Financial outlook for 2025 weakend somewhat, but remained significantly brighter than 2024, while the short-term outlook for farmland values ticked lower after reaching a multi-year high in May. Overall, farmer sentiment declined in June, but producers’ perspectives and outlooks remained at multi-year highs.
Central US Weather Pattern Update
Rain Favors Upper Midwest into Mid-July; Extreme Heat Absent:
The Central US forecast is consistent with prior runs and is viewed as non-threatening. Notably, ARC projects the US corn crop nationally to be 20-22% silking by this weekend. The absence of excessive heat and surplus soil moisture is noteworthy. Any real meaningful dryness is confined to far northern Illinois. This reflects the impact of a wet June. Additional rainfall of .50-2.00” is projected across the Central Plains, MO, IA, MN, WI, and most of southern IL. Totals in excess 1” favors KS, NE, MO, IA. The timing of this additional boost in soil moisture across C Plains and the W. Corn Belt is nearly ideal. ARC Notes that corn in KS is 22% silking and corn in MO is 19% silking.
Corn Comments & Analysis
CBOT Corn Ends Weak Amid Rising US Yield Potential:
CBOT corn futures ended lower following Monday’s unexpected 3% jump in US GD/EX corn ratings. South American fob markets remain firm amid the slow pace of Brazilian safrinha harvesting. US and World corn prices are hyper focused on new crop supplies. The LA corn crop is 35% dented and will be ready for harvest in late July and early August. Gulf corn yields are forecast to be record large. Late June crop ratings (% GD/EX) against final yield performance against the trend since 2015. Amid the current GD/EX against at 73%, and amid non-threatening forecast into July 15th, odds are high & rising that the US national yield exceeds trend for the first time since 2018! Mathematically, a US corn yield gain of 3% is forecast or a range of yields at 185-188 BPA. This would push 2025/26 US corn end stocks to 2.3-2.5 Bil Bu at the start of the crop year. It’s the heaviness and size of US and world cash corn supplies on September 1st that keep downside price pressures in place. Harvest lows are forecast at $3.50-$3.75 December.
Have A Great Trading Day!
Thanks,
Dan Flynn
Questions? Ask Dan Flynn today at 312-264-4374