Softs Report 06/18/2025

COTTON
General Comments: Cotton was a little lower yesterday in mostly quiet trading. There are still reports of better weather for planting in Texas and on demand concerns caused by the tariff wars and after USDA reported moderate to poor weekly export sales. Planting conditions remain good in Texas, but it is still too wet in the Delta and Southeast. Planting progress is still a little behind the five year average and condition is rated behind last year. The monsoon in India is off to a good start and a good production there is possible.
Overnight News: The USDA average price is now 67.79 ct/lb.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 63.80, 62.10, and 60.80 July, with resistance of 66.80, 67.20 and 67.90 July.

FCOJ
General Comments: Futures were lower again yesterday and trends are now down in the market. Development conditions are good in Florida now with daily rounds of showers. Production estimates from USDA remain well below those from a year ago. USDA estimated Florida production up slightly from the previous estimate at 12.0 million boxes, but that is still down 34% from last year. All US production was also a little higher from the previous report, but still down 37% for the year. The poor production potential for the crops comes from weather but also the greening disease that has caused many Florida producers to lose trees.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are down. Support is at 248.00, 236.00, and 224.00 July, with resistance at 271.00, 287.00, and 292.00 July.

COFFEE
General Comments: New York and London closed lower for the third time yesterday as the market feels supplies are increasing, particularly the Robusta availability in Brazil. Prices have now been dropping for several weeks and are much more moderate than before as supplies available to the market have ticked up. The Brazil Robusta harvest continues, and Indonesia continues to harvest. Vietnam is done with its harvest. The Brazil Arabica harvest is starting and is expected to be less this year.
Overnight News: The ICO average price is 296.73 ct/lb.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down. Support is at 324.00, 318.00, and 312.00 July, and resistance is at 354.00, 358.00 and 363.00 July. Trends in London are down. Support is at 4250, 4230, and 4170 July, with resistance at 4430, 4540, and 4610 July.

SUGAR
General Comments: New York and London closed lower as the price action returned to the overall trend. Ideas of good supplies for the market continue. The South Center Brazil harvest is faster now amid drier conditions. Good growing conditions are reported in India and Thailand after a fast start to the Monsoon season. The Monsoon has featur3ed above average rains. Sugar prices in Brazil are now cheap enough that at least some refiners could increase ethanol production and cut back on Sugar production. These ideas have helped support Sugar futures.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 1590, 1560, and 1540 July and resistance is at 1680, 1710, and 1740 July. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 456.00, 450.00, and 444.00 August, with resistance at 484.00, 491.00, and 499.00 August.

COCOA
General Comments: Both markets were lower yesterday on speculative selling. There are still reports of increased production potential in other countries outside of West Africa, including Asia and Central America. The market anticipates good demand and less production from Ivory Coast and Ghana. Pod counts for the mid crop suggested there is unlikely to be a significant recovery in production this season, and current weather is dry for the crops for the coming crop. Trends are turning down again in London and in New York. Cocoa arrivals at ports in Ivory Coast reached 1.540 million tons in May.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 8940, 8800, and 8300 July, with resistance at 11970, 10410, and 11280 July. Trends in London are mixed to down. Support is at 6140, 6040, and 5910 July, with resistance at 6980, 7290, and 7550 July.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322