Dan Flynn is the writer of The Corn & Ethanol Report, a daily market letter covering grains, energies, and various global issues that are the driving force and backbone of the commodity markets. Contact Mr. Flynn at (312) 264-4374
We kickoff the with Business Inventories MoM, Retail Sales MoM & YoY, Export Prices MoM & YoY, Import Prices MoM & YoY, Retail Sales Control Group MoM, Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM, and Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos MoM at 7:30 A.M., Redbook YoY ay 7:55 A.M., Industrial Production MoM & YoY, Manufacturing Production MoM & YoY, and Capacity Utilization at 8:15 A.M., 5-Year TIPS Auction at 11:00 A.M., Api Energy Stocks and International Monetary Market (IMM) Date at 3:30 P.M., and FOMC Meeting Day1.
The Bureau \of Labor Statistics’ all meat prices index for May was reported last week at a record high of 364.5, up 4% from last year, while the poultry index was 3% higher than a year ago at a record high of 311.4. Pork prices in May were down from a year ago, so all the increase is due to higher beef and poultry prices. The weekly wholesale price for boneless/skinless chicken breast, which soared in May, reaching a record high of $2.77/LB, which was the highest since the pandemic rally. Excluding the pandemic year, chicken breast prices have been at a record high since early April. The market relaxed in recent weeks, and a seasonal correction is expected to get underway. However, last week’s price of $2.65/LB was still $.92/LB or 53% higher than in the same week last year.
Central US Weather Pattern Update
Central US Forecast Stays Favorable; Models Agree Any Heat/High Pressure Ridging in Late June Only Temporary:
Lasting heat & dryness remains absent from the 10-day US forecast. NOAA’s 72-hour precipitation forecast has rainfall .50+” will impact all but the Dakotas, and it’s coming rainfall in east Nebraska, Iowa, and northern Illinois will be most welcomed. Ag Resources (ARC) also reiterates corn is pollinating this week across the Southeast – and adequate to abundant soil moisture. Warmth & dryness is forecast across the Plains and Midwest early next week, but any heat will be transitory in nature. High pressure Ridging, which will be present aloft the Midwest June 22-25, shifts westward thereafter. Potentially heavy showers impact NE, the Dakotas, IA, MN, and WI June 22-25. Near normal Midwest temps are projected inn the 11-15 day period. The US forecast is non-threatening into July 1st, with temps to be followed closely into July 10th and beyond corn pollination.
Corn Comments & Analysis
CBOT Corn Test Recent Lows on Looming Supply Pressure:
Corn markets globally ended lower, with Argentine cash corn market still the worlds cheapest feedgrain and as recent EPA biofuel proposals along with larger US winter wheat production imply an oversupplied US feed marketplace with normal July weather. The collision of near record HRW end stocks, record meal production and the addition of 6 Mil corn acres suggest competition for demand will be steep late summer onward. World weather issues today are confined to portions of Western Europe. The US crop on Sunday was rated at 72% GD/EX, vs. 71% last week and unchanged from mid-June a year ago. The counter-seasonal jump in ratings is noteworthy. The crop in IA is pegged at a record high of 84% GD/EX. Interior cash markets & spreads remain unfazed by a rather tight old crop balance sheet. It’s the 15.8 Bil Bu of production that lies ahead without heat/dryness in July that dominates price discovery, Catch up on hedges on recoveries. Dec CBOT drops below key support at $4.10-$4.15 if forecasts for July lack extreme heat.
Also, the US & Canada very close to a trade deal.
Have A Great Trading Day!
Contact me directly with any questions or to open a trading account at 1-888-264-5665 or dflynn@pricegroup.com
Lower Populations Feed Cattle & Poultry Prices. The Corn & Ethanol Report 06/17/2025
We kickoff the with Business Inventories MoM, Retail Sales MoM & YoY, Export Prices MoM & YoY, Import Prices MoM & YoY, Retail Sales Control Group MoM, Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM, and Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos MoM at 7:30 A.M., Redbook YoY ay 7:55 A.M., Industrial Production MoM & YoY, Manufacturing Production MoM & YoY, and Capacity Utilization at 8:15 A.M., 5-Year TIPS Auction at 11:00 A.M., Api Energy Stocks and International Monetary Market (IMM) Date at 3:30 P.M., and FOMC Meeting Day1.
The Bureau \of Labor Statistics’ all meat prices index for May was reported last week at a record high of 364.5, up 4% from last year, while the poultry index was 3% higher than a year ago at a record high of 311.4. Pork prices in May were down from a year ago, so all the increase is due to higher beef and poultry prices. The weekly wholesale price for boneless/skinless chicken breast, which soared in May, reaching a record high of $2.77/LB, which was the highest since the pandemic rally. Excluding the pandemic year, chicken breast prices have been at a record high since early April. The market relaxed in recent weeks, and a seasonal correction is expected to get underway. However, last week’s price of $2.65/LB was still $.92/LB or 53% higher than in the same week last year.
Central US Weather Pattern Update
Central US Forecast Stays Favorable; Models Agree Any Heat/High Pressure Ridging in Late June Only Temporary:
Lasting heat & dryness remains absent from the 10-day US forecast. NOAA’s 72-hour precipitation forecast has rainfall .50+” will impact all but the Dakotas, and it’s coming rainfall in east Nebraska, Iowa, and northern Illinois will be most welcomed. Ag Resources (ARC) also reiterates corn is pollinating this week across the Southeast – and adequate to abundant soil moisture. Warmth & dryness is forecast across the Plains and Midwest early next week, but any heat will be transitory in nature. High pressure Ridging, which will be present aloft the Midwest June 22-25, shifts westward thereafter. Potentially heavy showers impact NE, the Dakotas, IA, MN, and WI June 22-25. Near normal Midwest temps are projected inn the 11-15 day period. The US forecast is non-threatening into July 1st, with temps to be followed closely into July 10th and beyond corn pollination.
Corn Comments & Analysis
CBOT Corn Test Recent Lows on Looming Supply Pressure:
Corn markets globally ended lower, with Argentine cash corn market still the worlds cheapest feedgrain and as recent EPA biofuel proposals along with larger US winter wheat production imply an oversupplied US feed marketplace with normal July weather. The collision of near record HRW end stocks, record meal production and the addition of 6 Mil corn acres suggest competition for demand will be steep late summer onward. World weather issues today are confined to portions of Western Europe. The US crop on Sunday was rated at 72% GD/EX, vs. 71% last week and unchanged from mid-June a year ago. The counter-seasonal jump in ratings is noteworthy. The crop in IA is pegged at a record high of 84% GD/EX. Interior cash markets & spreads remain unfazed by a rather tight old crop balance sheet. It’s the 15.8 Bil Bu of production that lies ahead without heat/dryness in July that dominates price discovery, Catch up on hedges on recoveries. Dec CBOT drops below key support at $4.10-$4.15 if forecasts for July lack extreme heat.
Also, the US & Canada very close to a trade deal.
Have A Great Trading Day!
Contact me directly with any questions or to open a trading account at 1-888-264-5665 or dflynn@pricegroup.com
Thanks,
Dan Flynn
Questions? Ask Dan Flynn today at 312-264-4374