Softs Report 06/16/2025

COTTON
General Comments: Cotton was a little lower last week. USDA cut significantly the production potential for the crop still being planted and this filtered down to the ending stocks estimates. It also cut production estimates for South Asia. The market recovered the biggest losses of the day but still closed lower on the news. China and the US reached a trade agreement a couple of days ago that gives the US more rare earth metals in exchange for Chinese students being allowed to study in the US again No mention was made of agriculture and agricultural trade between the countries. There are still reports of better weather for planting in Texas and on demand concerns caused by the tariff wars and after USDA reported moderate to poor weekly export sales. However, Gap stores reported strong earnings and said it would greatly increase its use of US Cotton in its clothing. Planting conditions remain good in Texas, but it is still too wet in the Delta and Southeast. Planting progress is still a little behind the five year average and condition is rated behind last year. The monsoon in India is off to a good start and a good production there is possible. The Monsoon is paused right now but has featured early and above average rains so far.
Overnight News: The USDA average price is now 66.34 ct/lb.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 63.80, 62.10, and 60.80 July, with resistance of 66.80, 67.20 and 67.90 July.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of June 10, 2025
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COTTON NO. 2 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #033661 Open Interest is 275,442
: Positions :
: 24,451 92,386 71,178 84,145 80,035 81,137 17,810 260,912 261,409: 14,530 14,032
: Changes from: June 3, 2025 (Change in open interest: -9,586) :
: -391 5,608 -4,121 -3,664 -6,734 -2,376 -4,599 -10,552 -9,846: 966 260
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 8.9 33.5 25.8 30.5 29.1 29.5 6.5 94.7 94.9: 5.3 5.1
: Total Traders: 329 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 81 112 93 77 61 43 21 253 241:
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FCOJ
General Comments: Futures were lower in narrow range trading last week and trends are still mixed in the market. Trading has been choppy this week. Production estimates from USDA and private sources remain well below those from a year ago. USDA estimated Florida production up slightly from the previous estimate at 12.0 million boxes, but that is still down 34% from last year. All US production was also a little higher from the previous report, but still down 37% for the year. The futures market caress much more about Florida conditions. The poor production potential for the crops comes from weather but also the greening disease that has caused many Florida producers to lose trees. A tight market and higher prices should remain a feature for futures traders.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 261.00, 248.00, and 236.00 July, with resistance at 304.00, 314.00, and 325.00 July.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of June 10, 2025
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
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FRZN CONCENTRATED ORANGE JUICE – ICE FUTURES U.S. (CONTRACTS OF 15,000 POUNDS) :
CFTC Code #040701 Open Interest is 12,492 :
: Positions :
: 3,378 6,828 669 0 185 1,919 965 180 2,139 95 2,464 :
: Changes from: June 3, 2025 :
: 105 587 220 0 -54 -52 -358 68 100 50 -21 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 27.0 54.7 5.4 0.0 1.5 15.4 7.7 1.4 17.1 0.8 19.7 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 43 :
: 8 9 4 0 . 5 6 4 10 5 8 :
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COFFEE
General Comments: New York and London closed lower last week on an uptick in supply available to the market. Prices have now been dropping for several weeks and are much more moderate than before as supplies available to the market have ticked up. The Brazil Robusta harvest continues, and Indonesia continues to harvest. Vietnam is done with its harvest. The Brazil Arabica harvest is starting and is expected to be less this year, although maybe not as bad a originally feared.
Overnight News: The ICO average price is 307.73 ct/lb.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down. Support is at 337.00, 324.00, and 318.00 July, and resistance is at 368.00, 376.00 and 379.00 July. Trends in London are down. Support is at 4250, 4230, and 4170 July, with resistance at 4620, 4720, and 4810 July.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of June 10, 2025
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COFFEE C – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #083731 Open Interest is 198,894
: Positions :
: 33,546 9,417 61,670 52,763 113,225 41,155 7,306 189,134 191,618: 9,759 7,275
: Changes from: June 3, 2025 (Change in open interest: -239) :
: 1,821 -595 -264 -2,813 3,964 540 -3,374 -715 -270: 476 30
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 16.9 4.7 31.0 26.5 56.9 20.7 3.7 95.1 96.3: 4.9 3.7
: Total Traders: 346 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 99 74 111 92 109 45 19 295 263:
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SUGAR
General Comments: New York was lower last week and London closed about unchanged. Ideas of good supplies for the market continue to be heard. China has been a buyer. There were reports of drier weather in center south Brazil and the harvest is faster now amid drier conditions. Good growing conditions are reported in India and Thailand after a fast start to the Monsoon season. The Monsoon has featur3ed above average rains. Sugar prices in Brazil are now cheap enough that at least some refiners cud increase ethanol production and cut back on Sugar production.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down. Support is at 1690, 1560, and 1540 July and resistance is at 1650, 1680, and 1710 July. Trends in London are mixed to down. Support is at 456.00, 450.00, and 444.00 August, with resistance at 478.00, 484.00, and 484.00 August.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of June 10, 2025
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SUGAR NO. 11 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #080732 Open Interest is 1,057,205
: Positions :
: 119,869 205,336 234,894 381,437 457,345 245,918 78,653 982,117 976,228: 75,088 80,977
: Changes from: June 3, 2025 (Change in open interest: 40,493) :
: 3,265 14,528 -2,243 22,351 7,116 6,146 10,824 29,518 30,224: 10,975 10,268
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 11.3 19.4 22.2 36.1 43.3 23.3 7.4 92.9 92.3: 7.1 7.7
: Total Traders: 243 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 49 73 77 73 69 35 17 208 188:
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COCOA
General Comments: Both markets were lower last week in speculative trading. There are still reports of increased flows of Cocoa from Nigeria and reports of increased production potential in other countries outside of West Africa, including Asia and Central America. The market anticipates good demand and less production from Ivory Coast and Ghana. Early pod counts for the 2025/26 main crop suggested there is unlikely to be a significant recovery in production next season, and current weather is dry for the crops. Trends are turning down again in London and in New York.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 8940, 8800, and 8300 July, with resistance at 11970, 10410, and 11280 July. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 6140, 6040, and 5910 July, with resistance at 6980, 7290, and 7550 July.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of June 10, 2025
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COCOA – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #073732 Open Interest is 130,445
: Positions :
: 18,824 12,566 39,817 39,998 62,890 19,584 9,166 118,222 124,439: 12,222 6,006
: Changes from: June 3, 2025 (Change in open interest: -576) :
: 96 791 -1,219 -103 826 466 -978 -761 -579: 185 4
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 14.4 9.6 30.5 30.7 48.2 15.0 7.0 90.6 95.4: 9.4 4.6
: Total Traders: 162 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 53 38 61 34 34 28 14 143 121:
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Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322