Dan Flynn is the writer of The Corn & Ethanol Report, a daily market letter covering grains, energies, and various global issues that are the driving force and backbone of the commodity markets. Contact Mr. Flynn at (312) 264-4374
We kickoff the day with NY Empire State Manufacturing Index at 7:30 A.M., Export Inspections at 10:00 A.M., 3-Month & 6-Month Bill Auction at 10:30 A.M., NOPA Crush Report at 11:00 A.M., 20-Year Bond Auction at 12:00 P.M., and Crop Progress at 3:00 P.M.
US President Trump will be joined by Secretary of the Treasury Bessent to the G7 meetings in Canada this week. Discussions are expected to include US tariffs during the 3-day summit. With heads of France, Japan, Germany, UK, India, and Australia in attendance. Less than a month remains before US tariffs return to April 2nd levels, sparking worry, as the UK the only country able to cut a broad and ill defined trade deal with the US. Other trade deals have been elusive.
The Commitment of Traders report showed a mixed week of positioning in the grain markets. Funds added to their net short in the corn market by selling 9,997 contracts. Funds covered net short positions in the wheat market on all 3 exchanges, buying a combined 15,552 contracts. The chart plots the fund’s net positions in the markets for the same week in early June. Despite last week’s short covering, funds hold a record net short in the wheat market of 183,125 contracts. The net short in corn was slightly less than a year ago at 164,020 contracts. But was the 3rd largest on record for the week. Funds were net long 25,639 soybean contracts, the largest for early June in three years. The US wheat is ahead, while corn and soybean weather remains favorable into July. Funds usually add to net shorts into August.
Central US Weather Pattern Update
Central US Forecast Improves; No Sustained High Pressure Ridging Next Two Weeks:
The latest model guidance no longer features any sustained/expansive high pressure Ridging beyond June 290th , and instead any Midwest heat will be temporary. The EU, GFS, and AI models agree that rain falls in abundance over the next 5 days with accumulations of 1.50-3.oo” favoring NE, SD, IA, MN, and WI. 5-day totals of .50-1.25 forecast across IN, OH, and KY. The EU model’s updated 6-10 day and 11-15 day precipitation forecast abnormal warmth will be present in TX, OK, and KS June 21-26, but elsewhere, maximum temps will be capped in the 80’s. High pressure is shifted westward during the 11-15 day period, allowing moderate to heavy rains to flow across the Northern Plains and Central & Easten Midwest. Drought development is unlikely through the remainder of June. The US corn crop must endure extreme heat to drop yield potential.
Corn Comments & Analysis
CBOT Corn Ends Firm; Central US Forecast Improves; Early July Midwest Weather Forecast to Dominate Price Discovery:
CBOT corn futures ended firm but without the upside vigor that was seen in wheat/soybeans. The absence of sustained high-pressure Ridging in Friday’s model runs keeps in place ideas of counter-seasonal crop condition improvement into July. A 1.4-1.6 Bil Bu increase ’25 world corn exporter corn production is the default position unless major weather adversity emerges in the US/Ukraine during July. The strategy remains one of scaling into forward sales on rallies. Expect resistance at $4.50 basis July/December corn futures. However, not until the weather model guidance can peak into early July will a new bearish price trend resume. The managed fund’s net short corn position has expanded to 164,000 contracts. The market’s focus on daily weather forecasts will be acute nearby. Rising crude oil futures lent support on Friday. The nearby outlook is one of choppiness. However, expanded 2025 US corn seeding and a decline in feed/residual corn use, and an abundance of soybean from expanding US soy crush will cap rallies. Stay bearish new crop corn.
Have A Great Trading Day!
Contact me with any questions or open a trading account at 1-888-264-5665 or dflynn@pricegroup.com
Favorable Weather – G7 – Tariff Talk & EU Divide. The Corn & Ethanol Report 06/13/2025
We kickoff the day with NY Empire State Manufacturing Index at 7:30 A.M., Export Inspections at 10:00 A.M., 3-Month & 6-Month Bill Auction at 10:30 A.M., NOPA Crush Report at 11:00 A.M., 20-Year Bond Auction at 12:00 P.M., and Crop Progress at 3:00 P.M.
US President Trump will be joined by Secretary of the Treasury Bessent to the G7 meetings in Canada this week. Discussions are expected to include US tariffs during the 3-day summit. With heads of France, Japan, Germany, UK, India, and Australia in attendance. Less than a month remains before US tariffs return to April 2nd levels, sparking worry, as the UK the only country able to cut a broad and ill defined trade deal with the US. Other trade deals have been elusive.
The Commitment of Traders report showed a mixed week of positioning in the grain markets. Funds added to their net short in the corn market by selling 9,997 contracts. Funds covered net short positions in the wheat market on all 3 exchanges, buying a combined 15,552 contracts. The chart plots the fund’s net positions in the markets for the same week in early June. Despite last week’s short covering, funds hold a record net short in the wheat market of 183,125 contracts. The net short in corn was slightly less than a year ago at 164,020 contracts. But was the 3rd largest on record for the week. Funds were net long 25,639 soybean contracts, the largest for early June in three years. The US wheat is ahead, while corn and soybean weather remains favorable into July. Funds usually add to net shorts into August.
Central US Weather Pattern Update
Central US Forecast Improves; No Sustained High Pressure Ridging Next Two Weeks:
The latest model guidance no longer features any sustained/expansive high pressure Ridging beyond June 290th , and instead any Midwest heat will be temporary. The EU, GFS, and AI models agree that rain falls in abundance over the next 5 days with accumulations of 1.50-3.oo” favoring NE, SD, IA, MN, and WI. 5-day totals of .50-1.25 forecast across IN, OH, and KY. The EU model’s updated 6-10 day and 11-15 day precipitation forecast abnormal warmth will be present in TX, OK, and KS June 21-26, but elsewhere, maximum temps will be capped in the 80’s. High pressure is shifted westward during the 11-15 day period, allowing moderate to heavy rains to flow across the Northern Plains and Central & Easten Midwest. Drought development is unlikely through the remainder of June. The US corn crop must endure extreme heat to drop yield potential.
Corn Comments & Analysis
CBOT Corn Ends Firm; Central US Forecast Improves; Early July Midwest Weather Forecast to Dominate Price Discovery:
CBOT corn futures ended firm but without the upside vigor that was seen in wheat/soybeans. The absence of sustained high-pressure Ridging in Friday’s model runs keeps in place ideas of counter-seasonal crop condition improvement into July. A 1.4-1.6 Bil Bu increase ’25 world corn exporter corn production is the default position unless major weather adversity emerges in the US/Ukraine during July. The strategy remains one of scaling into forward sales on rallies. Expect resistance at $4.50 basis July/December corn futures. However, not until the weather model guidance can peak into early July will a new bearish price trend resume. The managed fund’s net short corn position has expanded to 164,000 contracts. The market’s focus on daily weather forecasts will be acute nearby. Rising crude oil futures lent support on Friday. The nearby outlook is one of choppiness. However, expanded 2025 US corn seeding and a decline in feed/residual corn use, and an abundance of soybean from expanding US soy crush will cap rallies. Stay bearish new crop corn.
Have A Great Trading Day!
Contact me with any questions or open a trading account at 1-888-264-5665 or dflynn@pricegroup.com
Thanks,
Dan Flynn
Questions? Ask Dan Flynn today at 312-264-4374