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Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

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Softs Report 06/13/2025

By On June 13, 2025 - 11:07 AM · In Market Commentaries, Morning Grains & Softs Report
COTTON
General Comments: Cotton was a little lower yesterday.  USDA cut significantly the production potential for the crop still being planted and this filtered down to the ending stocks estimates.  It also cut production estimates for South Asia.  The market recovered the biggest losses of the day but still closed lower on the news.  China and the US reached a trade agreement a couple of days ago that gives the US more rare earth metals in exchange for Chinese students being allowed to study in the US again   No mention was made of agriculture and agricultural trade between the countries. There are still reports of better weather for planting in Texas and on demand concerns caused by the tariff wars and after USDA reported moderate to poor weekly export sales.  However, Gap stores reported strong earnings and said it would greatly increase its use of US Cotton in its clothing.  Planting conditions remain good in Texas, but it is still too wet in the Delta and Southeast.  Some rain was reported in west Texas last week, and farmers are in the fields.  It has turned drier in the Delta and Southeast.  Planting progress is still a little behind the five year average and condition is rated behind last year.  The monsoon in India is off to a good start and a good production there is possible.  The Monsoon is paused right now but has featured early and above average rains so far.
Overnight News:  The USDA average price is now 66.34 ct/lb.
Chart Trends:  Trends in Cotton are mixed.  Support is at 63.80, 62.10, and 60.80 July, with resistance of 66.80, 67.20 and 67.90 July.
  U.S. Cotton Supply and Use  1/
================================================================================
                            2023/24   2024/25 Est.  2025/26 Proj.  2025/26 Proj.
Item                                                          May            Jun
================================================================================
                                               Million Acres
  Planted                     10.23          11.18          9.87*         9.87**
 Harvested                    6.44           7.81          8.37*         8.19*
                                                Pounds
                  Yield per Harvested
   Acre                         899            886           832*          8
                                            Million 480 Pound Bales
Beginning Stocks               4.65           3.15           4.80           4.40
Production                    12.07          14.41          14.50          14.00
Imports                        0.00           0.01           0.01           0.01
  Supply, Total               16.72          17.57          19.31          18.41
Domestic Use                   1.85           1.70           1.70           1.70
Exports, Total                11.75          11.50          12.50          12.50
  Use, Total                  13.60          13.20          14.20          14.20
Unaccounted 2/                –0.03          -0.03          –0.10          -0.10
Ending Stocks                  3.15           4.40           5.20           4.30
Avg. Farm Price 3/             76.1           63.0           62.0           62.0
================================================================================
                                WASDE – 661 – 18                       June 2025
  World Cotton Supply and Use  1/
                            (Million 480-Pound Bales)
================================================================================
                                    Supply                Use
Region                 Beginning Produc-                            Loss  Ending
                          Stocks    tion Imports Domestic Exports    2/   Stocks
================================================================================
                                  2025/26 Proj.
World
                     May   78.40  117.81   44.82  118.08   44.83   -0.25   78.38
                     Jun   77.29  116.99   44.82  117.76   44.79   -0.25   76.80
  World Less China
                     May   40.79   88.81   37.82   81.58   44.73   -0.25   41.36
                     Jun   40.17   86.99   38.32   81.26   44.69   -0.25   39.78
United States
                     May    4.80   14.50    0.01    1.70   12.50   -0.10    5.20
                     Jun    4.40   14.00    0.01    1.70   12.50   -0.10    4.30
Total Foreign
                     May   73.60  103.31   44.82  116.38   32.33   -0.15   73.18
                     Jun   72.89  102.99   44.81  116.06   32.29   -0.15   72.50
   Major Exporters  4/
                     May   26.31   59.74    4.05   35.63   28.32   -0.15   26.30
                     Jun   26.12   58.72    4.45   35.52   28.23   -0.15   25.68
   Major Importers  8/
                     May   44.89   40.24   37.73   76.02    2.47    0.00   44.37
                     Jun   44.39   40.94   37.23   75.72    2.52    0.00   44.32
================================================================================
                                WASDE – 661 – 28                       June 2025
FCOJ
General Comments: Futures were mostly a little higher again yesterday and trends are still mixed in the market.  Trading has been choppy this week.  Production estimates from USDA and private sources remain well below those from a year ago.  USDA estimated Florida production up slightly from the previous estimate at 12.0 million boxes, but that is still down 34% from last year.  All US production was also a little higher, butz the futures market caress much more about Florida conditions.  The poor production potential for the crops comes from weather but also the greening disease that has caused many Florida producers to lose trees.  A tight market and higher prices should remain a feature for futures traders.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends:  Trends in FCOJ are mixed.  Support is at 261.00, 248.00, and 236.00 July, with resistance at 304.00, 314.00, and 325.00 July.
The United States all orange forecast for the 2024-2025 season is
2.48 million tons, up 1 percent from the previous forecast but down 8 percent
from the 2023-2024 utilization. The Florida all orange forecast, at
12.0 million boxes (540,000 tons), is up 3 percent from the previous forecast
but down 34 percent from last season’s utilization. In Florida, early,
midseason, and Navel varieties are forecast at 4.60 million boxes
(207,000 tons), up less than 1 percent from the previous forecast but
down 32 percent from last season’s final utilization. The Florida Valencia
orange forecast, at 7.40 million boxes (333,000 tons), is up 5 percent from
the previous forecast but down 35 percent from last season’s utilization.
COFFEE
General Comments: New York was lower and London closed a little higher.  Prices have now been dropping for several weeks and are much more moderate than before as supplies available to the market have ticked up.  The Brazil Robusta harvest continues, and Indonesia continues to harvest.  Vietnam is done with its harvest.  The Brazil Arabica harvest is starting and is expected to be less this year, although maybe not as bad a originally feared.
Overnight News: The ICO average price is 307.41 ct/lb.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down.  Support is at 337.00, 324.00, and 318.00 July, and resistance is at 368.00, 376.00 and 379.00 July.  Trends in London are down.  Support is at 4290, 4230, and 4170 July, with resistance at 4620, 4720, and 4810 July.
SUGAR
General Comments: Both markets were lower yesterday.  Ideas of good supplies for the market continue to be heard.  China has been a buyer.  There were reports of drier weather in center south Brazil and the harvest is faster now amid drier conditions. Good growing conditions are reported in India and Thailand after a fast start to the Monsoon season.  The Monsoon has featur3ed above average rains.  Sugar prices in Brazil are now cheap enough that at least some refiners cud increase ethanol production and cut back on Sugar production.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down.  Support is at 1620, 1590, and 1560 July and resistance is at 1680, 1710, and 1780 July.  Trends in London are mixed to down.  Support is at 456.00, 450.00, and 444.00 August, with resistance at 478.00, 484.00, and 484.00 August.
  U.S. Sugar Supply and Use  1/
================================================================================
                               2023/24  2024/25 Est. 2025/26 Proj. 2025/26 Proj.
Item                                                           May           Jun
================================================================================
                                             1000 Short Tons, Raw Value
Beginning Stocks                  1843          2131          2032          2045
Production 2/                     9313          9291          9285          9254
  Beet Sugar                      5172          5318          5180          5150
  Cane Sugar                      4141          3973          4105          4104
    Florida                       2079          1929          2017          2016
    Louisiana                     2022          2045          2088          2088
    Texas                           40             0             0             0
Imports                           3840          2953          2475          2474
  TRQ 3/                          1788          1533          1419          1419
  Other Program 4/                 300           200           200           200
  Non-program                     1752          1220           855           855
    Mexico                         521           497           669           669
  High-tier tariff/other          1231           724           186           186
      Total Supply               14995         14375         13791         13773
Exports                            249           100           100           100
Deliveries                       12534         12230         12255         12230
  Food                           12428         12125         12150         12125
  Other 5/                         106           105           105           105
Miscellaneous                       81             0             0             0
      Total Use                  12864         12330         12355         12330
Ending Stocks                     2131          2045          1436          1443
Stocks to Use Ratio               16.6          16.6          11.6          11.7
================================================================================
    Mexico Sugar Supply and Use and High Fructose Corn Syrup Consumption 1/
================================================================================
                                    Supply                Use
Fiscal                  Beginning  Produc-  Imports Domestic  Exports   Ending
 Year                      Stocks     tion               2/             Stocks
================================================================================
                                            1000 Metric Tons, Actual Weight
Sugar
2024/25 Est.
May                          1418     4811      189     4614      723     1081
Jun                          1418     4774      175     4553      743     1071
2025/26 Proj.
May                          1081     5094      142     4569      667     1081
Jun                          1071     5094      142     4569      657     1081
================================================================================
                                WASDE – 661 – 17                       June 2025
COCOA
General Comments: Both markets closed higher yesterday in speculative trading.  A low has formed on the daily charts despite reports of increased availability of Cocoa to the market.  There are still reports of increased flows of Cocoa from Nigeria and reports of increased production potential in other countries outside of West Africa, including Asia and Central America.  The market anticipates good demand and less production from Ivory Coast and Ghana.  Early pod counts for the 2025/26 main crop suggested there is unlikely to be a significant recovery in production next season, and current weather is dry for the crops.   Trends are turning down again in London and in New York.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends:  Trends in New York are mixed to up.  Support is at 8940, 8800, and 8300 July, with resistance at 11970, 10410, and 11280 July.  Trends in London are mixed to up.  Support is at 6140, 6040, and 5910 July, with resistance at 6980, 7290, and 7550 July.
Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322        
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