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Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

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Grain Report 06/13/2025

By On June 13, 2025 - 11:01 AM · In Market Commentaries, Morning Grains & Softs Report

DJ USDA Report: Summary for U.S. Agriculture Supply, Demand Report

WASHINGTON–The following are key numbers from USDA’s crop report
and how the government’s estimates compared to analysts’ forecasts in a
Wall Street Journal survey.
U.S. 2025 Corn, Soybean Production, Yield (million bushels, bushels per acre)
                   Thursday’s
                     Estimate   Average     Range       USDA May
Corn Production         15,820     15,795  15,525-15,820    15,820
Soybean Production       4,340      4,338   4,300-4,340      4,340
                   Thursday’s
                     Estimate   Average     Range       USDA May
Corn Yield             181.0 *     180.9   179.0-181.0     181.0
Soybean Yield           52.5 *      52.5    52.0-52.5       52.5
***
U.S. Stockpiles (million bushels)
2024-25
                Thursday’s
                  Estimate      Average       Range      USDA May
Corn                  1,365       1,386     1,315-1,450     1,415
Soybeans                350         352       340-382         350
Wheat                   841         840       816-866         841
2025-26
                Thursday’s
                  Estimate      Average       Range       USDA May
Corn                  1,750        1,792     1,655-2,135     1,800
Soybeans                295          302       285-394         295
Wheat                   898          916       868-948         923
***
World Stockpiles (million metric tons)
2024-25
               Thursday’s
                 Estimate     Average       Range       USDA May
Corn                 285.0      288.1       285.0-295.0    287.3
Soybeans             124.2      123.1       122.0-124.2    123.2
Wheat                264.0      265.2       264.3-266.0    265.2
2025-26
               Thursday’s
                 Estimate     Average       Range       USDA May
Corn                 275.2      278.9       275.9-285.0    277.8
Soybeans             125.3      124.6       123.4-126.0    124.3
Wheat                262.8      265.1       254.9-270.0    265.7
***
2025-26 Wheat Production (million bushels)
               Thursday’s
                 Estimate     Average      Range      USDA May
All Wheat         1,921        1,923     1,891-1,949   1,921
Winter Wheat      1,382        1,386     1,347-1,410   1,382
Hard Red Winter     782          789       768-800       784
Soft Red Winter     345          347       340-355       345
White Winter        254          252       247-256       253
***
2024-2025
Brazil Production (million metric tons)
               Thursday’s
                 Estimate     Average      Range      USDA May
Corn              130.0      131.5    129.0-135.0    130.0
Soybeans          169.0      169.2    168.3-171.0    169.0
Argentina Production (million metric tons)
               Thursday’s
                 Estimate     Average      Range      USDA May
Corn               50.0      49.9      49.0-51.0      50.0
Soybeans           49.0      49.0      48.0-50.0      49.0
DJ Canadian Grain Handling Summary – Jun 12
Winnipeg — The following are Canadian grain handling summary
statistics for the period that ended June 8, 2025. Figures in thousands
of metric tons. Source: Canadian Grain Commission.
           Wheat   Durum  Oat    Barley Flax  Canola  Peas   Corn   Total
COMMERCIAL STOCKS
This Week 2040.9  432.2  294.0  322.3  26.5  1055.0  246.6  292.7  5205.0
Week Ago  1901.4  462.8  265.3  291.6  24.3   970.5  241.9  283.2  4985.7
Year Ago  2699.7  945.3  333.5  326.5  54.6  1557.2  382.7  195.7  6910.3
PRODUCER DELIVERIES
This Week  743.8  127.2   52.0   60.1   4.1   419.6    7.6   23.3  1470.6
Week Ago   636.9  122.2   36.7   53.3   4.7   377.1    9.9   13.8  1296.2
To Date  21623.7 5324.3 2180.7 3257.6 140.5 17196.9 2242.1  680.8 55869.3
Year Ago 20115.5 3208.7 1810.1 3447.6 158.1 14898.4 2246.5  572.2 49501.9
TERMINAL RECEIPTS
This Week  484.5   66.4    5.5    7.8   0.0   106.6    1.9   92.2   794.7
Week Ago   462.5  159.9   23.1   22.0   0.1   110.2   24.0  120.7   979.9
To Date  21438.3 5742.3  492.4 1815.2  40.9  9354.0 1747.5 2543.1 48918.8
Year Ago 21283.5 3686.5  462.4 1936.7  12.8  6673.5 1739.3 1357.0 42907.8
EXPORTS
This Week  550.1   85.3   37.6    0.6   0.2   158.4    0.8  145.3   995.7
Week Ago   535.1   87.1   18.6   21.5  14.0   175.1   30.7  146.3  1058.5
To Date  18993.0 4989.0 1238.4 1755.9  70.5  8682.1 1728.4 2678.7 44943.0
Year Ago 18332.7 3063.0 1193.8 1907.3  52.3  5563.5 1841.4 1062.2 37180.1
DOMESTIC DISAPPEARANCE
This Week  150.5   30.1   15.0   23.4   0.2   201.6    1.6   24.1   471.8
Week Ago   131.7    4.9   23.7   26.4   0.9   153.5    1.6   20.8   385.2
To Date   4103.2  637.0  818.1 1318.9  44.1  9828.1  185.3  970.7 19492.5
Year Ago  3872.9  566.7  756.6 1247.6  51.7  9461.8  206.1 1291.2 18844.7
Source: MarketsFarm (news@marketsfarm.com)
WHEAT
General Comments:   All three Wheat markets closed lower as growing conditions at home and abroad have improved.  USDA made no real changes for the US data, but did cut ending stocks estimates in its world data.  There are still reports that the weather has reduced production potential in Ukraine and Russia and reports of dry weather in some parts of the EU and China.  Russia is forecasting a large reduction in Wheat production for the coming year.  Winter crops in the Great Plains are reported to be in good condition, but Spring Wheat crops in the northern Great Plains and into Canada have been dry.  Some rain is in the forecast for the northern Great Plains this week and wetter and warmer conditions are now forecast for the southern Plains as well.  It is too wet in the Delta and Southeast.  Overall demand for world Wheat has been weak.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed  Support is at 520, 514 and 508 July, with resistance at 557, 561, and 569 July.  Trends in Kansas City are mixed.  Support is at 514, 508, and 502 July, with resistance at 557, 563, and 574 July. Trends in Minneapolis are up.  Support is at 608, 596, and 590 July, and resistance is at 640, 645, and 659 July.
RICE:
General Comments:  Rice was a little higher yesterday in response to the USDA supply and demand reports.  USDA cut production by reducing planted area and yields due to the wet weather seen in the Delta.  Demand was also cut back but not as much as supply so ending stocks were a little lower.  Chart trends are up on the daily charts.  There is still a lot of speculative buying seen in the market that is thought to be mostly short covering, but commercial buying has been very strong as well.  The cash market has been slow with mostly quiet domestic markets and average export demand.  Milling quality of the Rice remains below industry standards and it takes more Rough Rice to create the grain for sale to stores and exporters.  Rice has emerged in most growing areas now.  Condition has been rated as good but too much rain has been reported in southern areas.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed to up.  Support is at 1315, 1282, and 1261 July and resistance is at 1371, 1402, and 1410 July.
CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn was a little higher yesterday on ideas of better demand and despite forecasts for good weather.  July gained slightly on December on the spreads.  USDA left its US production ideas unchanged but increased export demand and cut ending stocks as anticipated by many traders.  World ending stocks ideas were also trimmed by USDA.  Forecasts for improved growing conditions in the Midwest through this weekend were a reason to sell.  Warmer and drier weather is in the forecast for this week, but temperatures should turn a little cooler over the weekend.  Warm weather returns in zthe forecasts for next week.  A severe drought is seen in central Nebraska and moderate drought extends east in a corridor into the Chicago area.  Most of the Midwest has seen adequate or greater precipitation and it is still too wet in the eastern and southern parts.  Demand for Corn in world markets remains strong.  Oats were higher.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis:  Trends in Corn are mixed.  Support is at 431, 428, and 425 July, and resistance is at 456, 465, and 470 July.  Trends in Oats are mixed.  Support is at 370, 367, and 364 July, and resistance is at 390, 396, and 402 July.
SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and Soybean Oil were a little lower yesterday, but Soybean Meal was a little higher on strong weekly export sales.  Export sales for Soybeans were weak.  USDA made no significant changes to the US supply and demand estimates b ut increased ending stocks estimates for the world despite unchanged Brazil and Argentine production ideas.  China and the US announced a couple of days ago that they had made a trade agreement that will allow Chinese students to attend US universities in exchange for rare earth metals.  No mention of agriculture was made.  Forecasts for good growing conditions in the Midwest and as cheaper prices reported from Brazil are still being heard.  The market could remain under pressure as Brazil basis levels have been under pressure the last few weeks and prices in world markets for Brazil Soybeans are now less than those from the US.  Export demand is in its seasonal doldrums.  Export demand remains less for US Soybeans as China has been taking almost all the export from South America.  Warmer temperatures and drier conditions are expected this week after a cold and wet week last week.  A severe drought is seen in central Nebraska and moderate drought extends east in a corridor into the Chicago area.  Most of the Midwest has seen adequate or greater precipitation and it is still too wet in southern and eastern areas.
Overnight News:
Analysis:  Trends in Soybeans are mixed.  Support is at 1028, 1021, and 1009 July, and resistance is at 1062, 1073, and  1082 July.  Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed.  Support is at 290.00, 287.00, and 284.00 July, and resistance is at 300.00, 302.00, and 306.00 July.  Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to down.  Support is at 4580, 4530, and 4430 July, with resistance at 4800, 4920, and 5030 July.
PALM OIL AND CANOLA
General Comments:   Palm Oil futures were higher with the price action in Chicago and hopes for improved Indian demand.  Ideas that current increased production levels mean higher inventories in MPOB monthly data are still around.  Ideas of increasing production and reduced demand are also heard.  Canola was higher.  Trends are up on the daily charts and are turning up on the weekly charts.  The weather has generally been dry for planting and crop development in the Prairies with warm and dry weather around lately.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are up.  Support is at 680.00, 662.00, and 649.00 July, with resistance at 735.00, 741.00, and 747.00 July.  Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to up.  Support is at 3820, 3770, and 3710 August, with resistance at 3990, 4040, and 4130 August.
Midwest Weather Forecast Showers are rain.  Temperatures should average near normal.
DJ Malaysian AM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – June 13
  The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 0430 GMT Friday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
  Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
              Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded
Jun           967.50     +07.50      Unquoted   –        –
Jul           967.50     +07.50      Unquoted   –        –
Aug/Sep       960.00     +07.50      Unquoted   –        –
Apr/May/Jun   967.50     +07.50      Unquoted   –        –
Jul/Aug/Sep   972.50     +02.50      Unquoted   –        –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
              Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded
Jun           972.50     +07.50      Unquoted   –        –
Jul           972.50     +07.50      Unquoted   –        –
Aug/Sep       965.00     +07.50      Unquoted   –        –
Oct/Nov/Dec   972.50     +07.50      Unquoted   –        –
Jul/Aug/Sep   977.50     +02.50      Unquoted   –        –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
              Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded
Jun           942.50     +12.50      Unquoted   –        –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
              Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded
Jun           867.50     +17.50      Unquoted   –        –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
              Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded
Jun         3,960.00     +60.00      Unquoted   –        –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
              Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded
Jun           353.00     -02.00      Unquoted   –        –
($1=MYR4.2455)
DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – March 28
  The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Friday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
  Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
             Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded
Apr          1135.00    +15.00      Unquoted   –        –
Apr/May/Jun  1092.50    +20.00      Unquoted   –        –
Jul/Aug/Sep  1012.50    +17.50      Unquoted   –        –
Oct/Nov/Dec  1002.50    +15.00      Unquoted   –        –
Jan/Feb/Mar  1007.50    +12.50      Unquoted   –        –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
              Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded
Apr           1140.00    +15.00      Unquoted   –        –
Apr/May/Jun   1097.50    +20.00      Unquoted   –        –
Jul/Aug/Sep   1017.50    +17.50      Unquoted   –        –
Oct/Nov/Dec   1007.50    +15.00      Unquoted   –        –
Jan/Feb/Mar   1012.50    +12.50      Unquoted   –        –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
              Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded
Apr           1112.50    +20.00      Unquoted   –        –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
              Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded
Apr           1070.00    +15.00      Unquoted   –        –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
               Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded
Apr            4,830.00   +70.00      Unquoted   –        –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
               Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded
Apr            494.00     +07.00      Unquoted   –        –
($1=MYR4.4363)
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