Dan Flynn is the writer of The Corn & Ethanol Report, a daily market letter covering grains, energies, and various global issues that are the driving force and backbone of the commodity markets. Contact Mr. Flynn at (312) 264-4374
We kickoff the day with Export Sales, PPI, PPI MoM & YoY, Core PPI MoM & YoY, Initial Jobless Claims, Jobless Claims 4-Week Average, and PPI Ex Food Energy and Trade MoM & YoY at 7:30 A.M., EIA Natural Gas Storage at 9:30 A.M., 4-Week & 8-Week Bill Auction at 10:30 A.M., Crop Production, USDA Supply/Demand, WASDE, 15-Year & 30-Year Mortgage Rate at 11:00 A.M., 30-Year Bond Auction at 12:00 P.M., and Fed Balance Sheet at 3:30 P.M.
The May Consumer Price Inflation rate fell short of what many had feared. The May CPI inflation rate came in at 2.4%, well below the average trade estimate of 2.5% and significantly lower than last years 3.3%. Compared to April, consumer prices rose by 0.21%, the smallest monthly increase since December. But despite the cooler-than-expected inflation rate, the CPI set a record high of 321.47. The meats poultry, housing, and medical care inflation rose 0.21% from April to mark the 53rd consecutive month higher. Housing costs were up 4% from a year ago. Total energy costs declined for the 4th consecutive month by an average of 3.5% from a year ago, with gasoline prices 11.6% cheaper than last year, while diesel/fuel oil was 12% cheaper. Natural Gas marked the largest increase from a year ago and was up 15.3%. Overall, the inflation rate for April was favorable and showed no ill effects from the US trade policy to date.
Central US Weather Pattern Update
Central US Forecast Wetter Next 10 Days; Fast Moving Jet Stream Prevents Stagnation:
The US forecast has trended wetter in the 6-10 day period, with the EU, GFS, and Canadian models in solid agreement. Welcomed rainfall soaks SD, MN, WI, and parts of IA over the next 48 hours. Widespread showers linger in the Delta/Southeast and S Midwest throughout the next 3-4 days. Additional rain impacts the far eastern Plains and western Midwest from June 16-19. North America’s atmospheric pattern works against pattern stagnation – and widespread anchored high pressure Ridging – into the end of June. As such, lasting heat/dryness is unlikely throughout the period. Heat favors the C Plains/IA next week, but it remains that this will be a transitory phenomenom. Normal/below normal temps are forecast in all areas in the 11-15 day period. ARC also notes dryness across the far W Plains accelerates winter wheat maturation/early harvest efforts.
Corn Comments & Analysis
CBOT Corn Ends Flat; Market Unmoved by Record US Ethanol Production:
CBOT corn futures ended steady to weaker. That the market has been unwilling to react positively to seemingly bullish input with July CBOT trading at a $.03/Bu discount to December. US export and ethanol usage has been positive, but uncertainty surrounding Mar-May feed disappearance and nearly ideal central US weather caps rallies. A US/China deal is well into the future. US ethanol production in the week ending Jun 6th total 329 Mil Gal, up 9% year-over-year on record. However, the USDA is unlikely to adjust its annual forecast today amid elevated ethanol yields. ARC also notes recent large production has depressed cash ethnol prices. The spot Midwest swap market has fallen to $1.65/Gal vs. $1.72/Gal in early May. Margins are not overly fancy and the use of sorghum as a feedstock is expanding. Unknown June 1st stocks and the July Midwest weather keep the market neutral/choppy in near term. ARC reiterates odds of drought development in July are reduced amid rising soil moisture levels and a seasonal strong jet stream. Recoveries remain selling opportunities with resistance seen at $4.45-$4.55 basis December.
Buckle Up Your Chinstrap for WASDE!
Have A Great Trading Day!
Contact me directly with any questions or to open a trading account at 1-888-264-5665 or dflynn@pricegroup.com
Jobs Data – Producer Price Index & WASDE. The Corn & Ethanol Report 06/12/2025
We kickoff the day with Export Sales, PPI, PPI MoM & YoY, Core PPI MoM & YoY, Initial Jobless Claims, Jobless Claims 4-Week Average, and PPI Ex Food Energy and Trade MoM & YoY at 7:30 A.M., EIA Natural Gas Storage at 9:30 A.M., 4-Week & 8-Week Bill Auction at 10:30 A.M., Crop Production, USDA Supply/Demand, WASDE, 15-Year & 30-Year Mortgage Rate at 11:00 A.M., 30-Year Bond Auction at 12:00 P.M., and Fed Balance Sheet at 3:30 P.M.
The May Consumer Price Inflation rate fell short of what many had feared. The May CPI inflation rate came in at 2.4%, well below the average trade estimate of 2.5% and significantly lower than last years 3.3%. Compared to April, consumer prices rose by 0.21%, the smallest monthly increase since December. But despite the cooler-than-expected inflation rate, the CPI set a record high of 321.47. The meats poultry, housing, and medical care inflation rose 0.21% from April to mark the 53rd consecutive month higher. Housing costs were up 4% from a year ago. Total energy costs declined for the 4th consecutive month by an average of 3.5% from a year ago, with gasoline prices 11.6% cheaper than last year, while diesel/fuel oil was 12% cheaper. Natural Gas marked the largest increase from a year ago and was up 15.3%. Overall, the inflation rate for April was favorable and showed no ill effects from the US trade policy to date.
Central US Weather Pattern Update
Central US Forecast Wetter Next 10 Days; Fast Moving Jet Stream Prevents Stagnation:
The US forecast has trended wetter in the 6-10 day period, with the EU, GFS, and Canadian models in solid agreement. Welcomed rainfall soaks SD, MN, WI, and parts of IA over the next 48 hours. Widespread showers linger in the Delta/Southeast and S Midwest throughout the next 3-4 days. Additional rain impacts the far eastern Plains and western Midwest from June 16-19. North America’s atmospheric pattern works against pattern stagnation – and widespread anchored high pressure Ridging – into the end of June. As such, lasting heat/dryness is unlikely throughout the period. Heat favors the C Plains/IA next week, but it remains that this will be a transitory phenomenom. Normal/below normal temps are forecast in all areas in the 11-15 day period. ARC also notes dryness across the far W Plains accelerates winter wheat maturation/early harvest efforts.
Corn Comments & Analysis
CBOT Corn Ends Flat; Market Unmoved by Record US Ethanol Production:
CBOT corn futures ended steady to weaker. That the market has been unwilling to react positively to seemingly bullish input with July CBOT trading at a $.03/Bu discount to December. US export and ethanol usage has been positive, but uncertainty surrounding Mar-May feed disappearance and nearly ideal central US weather caps rallies. A US/China deal is well into the future. US ethanol production in the week ending Jun 6th total 329 Mil Gal, up 9% year-over-year on record. However, the USDA is unlikely to adjust its annual forecast today amid elevated ethanol yields. ARC also notes recent large production has depressed cash ethnol prices. The spot Midwest swap market has fallen to $1.65/Gal vs. $1.72/Gal in early May. Margins are not overly fancy and the use of sorghum as a feedstock is expanding. Unknown June 1st stocks and the July Midwest weather keep the market neutral/choppy in near term. ARC reiterates odds of drought development in July are reduced amid rising soil moisture levels and a seasonal strong jet stream. Recoveries remain selling opportunities with resistance seen at $4.45-$4.55 basis December.
Buckle Up Your Chinstrap for WASDE!
Have A Great Trading Day!
Contact me directly with any questions or to open a trading account at 1-888-264-5665 or dflynn@pricegroup.com
Thanks,
Dan Flynn
Questions? Ask Dan Flynn today at 312-264-4374