Friday was one of few positive days for much of the ag commodities. Outside of soybean meal weakness, all of the major ag classes were in the green to round out the week, what seems like a rarity these days. Of note, the Cattle market stood out as there are likely a few shorts running scared in that market as the cash trade has forced futures to rally. We haven’t gotten to that point in the grains, though we have begun to accumulate more shorts in the market, in some cases record. They say scared money is always looking for a place to hide. The grain bears are still emboldened, though the bulls are hoping the weatherman can give them a spook!
Corn held onto some weakness in the July, as bear spreading all week was a man story. July was down 1 ½ cents, with December up 10 ¾ cents. Monday’s Crop Progress data indicated 93% of the US corn crop planted as of June 1, now at the 5-year average. Ratings were pegged at 69% good or excellent, with a 375 score on the Brugler500 index. EIA showed ethanol production up another 49,000 barrels per day to 1.105million bpd in the week of 5/30. Stocks of ethanol saw a build of 159,000 barrels to 24.244 million barrels. Monthly Grain Crushing data showed 425.8 mbu of corn used for ethanol production in April, down 6% from last month, but 0.77% above April 2024. Export Sales data showed 2024/25 corn bookings at 942,276 MT for the week that ended on May 29. That brought the total export commitments to 65.138 MMT, which is 99% of the USDA full-year export forecast, ahead the 5-year average pace for this week. New crop sales were 160,116 MT. Census data tallied 7.78 MMT of corn shipped in April (289.36 mbu), up 6.08% from March and a 21.06% increase from last year. Friday’s CFTC report showed spec funds adding back to their net short in corn futures and options by 53,283 contracts to a net -154,043 contracts by June 3.
The wheat complex posted gains across the three markets, led by Chicago. The SRW market was up 20 ¾ cents, with KC 6 cents higher. MPLS futures were the follower this week up 9 ¾ cents. Crop Progress data from Tuesday a total of 95% of the US spring wheat crop was planted as of 6/1, vs. the 5-year average pace of 90%. Ratings improved 5% to 50% good/excellent, with a Brugler500 index at 340, up 16. Winter wheat ratings were tallied at 52% good/excellent, back up 2%, with the Brugler500 index up 4 points to 336. The weekly Export Sales report tallied US wheat 2024/25 business at net reductions of 49,114 MT in the week of 5/29. Bookings for the 2025/26 crop were at 444,857 MT. Monthly wheat exports totaled 2.198 MMT (80 mbu) during April according to Census data, which was a 4-year high. Commitment of Traders data showed specs trimming 654 contracts from their large net short position in CBT wheat futures and options by 654 contracts as of Tuesday to 100,572 contracts. In KC wheat, they cut back 1,333 contracts from their large net short to 78,028 contracts during the week of 6/3.
Soybeans popped back higher, with July up 15 ½ cents, as November was up 10 ¼ cents. July soybean meal saw a pullback, down 60 cents, as the stagnation continues. Bean oil posted some gains, with July up 61 points. The market gained some support from a President Trump and Chinese President Xi meeting on Thursday and US trade reps meeting on Monday in London. USDA’s Crop Progress report tallied 84% of the US soybean crop planted by 6/1, still ahead of the 5-year average pace. Condition ratings were tallied at 67% good/excellent for the first one of the year, equating to 374 on the Brugler500 index. Fats & Oils data indicated 202.4 mbu of soybeans crushed during April, a drop of 2.11% from last month, but 13.98% above April 2024. Export Sales data showed 2024/25 soybean bookings dropping to 194,345 MT in the week of May 29. That took the accumulated shipped and unshipped sales to 48.65 MMT. That is 97% of USDA’s export projection for the marketing year, 2 percentage points back of the 5-year average pace. New crop continues to be light at just 3,544 MT. Census data indicated a total of 2.18 MMT (81 mbu) of soybeans shipped in April, up 23.17% from last year. Commitment of Traders data showed money managers in soybean futures and options cutting back 28,096 contracts to their net long as of Tuesday, to a net long of 8,601 contracts.
Live cattle were in rally mode this week, up $10.82, trying to catch the red-hot cash market. The cash market saw another round of stronger trade this week, with southern sales mainly at $228-230 (+$7-8) and some at $235. Northern trade was at $240-244 (+$6-7). Feeders also saw strength this week, with August up $11.325. The CME Feeder Cattle Index was back up $6.86 week/week to $306.16. Wholesale boxed beef prices stalled out this week. Choice was down $1.26 (-0.3%) to $365.08, while Select was 8 cents higher to $356.73. Weekly beef production was down 1.8% from the same week last year at 506.3 million lbs this week. Year to date beef production is now down 2.8%, as slaughter is 6.2% lower. Export Sales data indicated beef export bookings at just 8,978 MT during the week that ended on May 29. Actual shipments were tallied at 10,940 MT, the lowest total for the calendar year. Monthly Census data showed 237.2 million lbs of beef shipped in April, which is a 5-year low and down 7.3% from March. Weekly CFTC data showed managed money in live cattle futures and options adding back another 315 contracts to their net long position as of Tuesday to 131,805 contracts. Spec traders added another 1,569 contracts to their new record net long in feeder cattle futures and options to 34,827 contracts by June 3.
Hogs pushed higher this week, up another $2.175 on the week to post contract highs. The CME Lean Hog Index was up another $2.44 this week at $96.57 as of June 3. USDA’s Pork Carcass Cutout shot up another $4.29 on the week (4%) to $111.51/cwt. All primals were reported higher, with the belly leading the charge, up $9.37. Pork production was down 2.3% from the same week a year ago at 508.5 million lbs. Year to date pork production is down 1.8%, as slaughter is 2.1% lower. Weekly Export Sales data indicated 36,373 MT of pork sold in the week ending on May 29. Export Shipments were at 24,077 MT, the lowest in 19 weeks. Pork exports during April totaled 582.9 million lbs according to Census data, a 3-year low for the month and down 9.1% from March. Commitment of Traders data showed specs adding another 7,086 contracts to their large net long position as of 6/3 to a net position of 101,626 contracts.
Cotton futures posted a 56 point rebound this week in the July contract, with December 46 points higher. NASS Crop Progress data showed a total of 66% of the US cotton crop has been planted as of last Sunday, behind the 69% pace from the 5-year average. Initial condition ratings were 49% good/excellent, or 324 on the Brugler500 index. Export Sales data showed a total of 109,785 RB of 2024/25 cotton sold in the week ending on May 29. Shipments pushed to a 3-week high at 316,134 RB. Upland cotton commitments are 11.525 million RB, 111% of the USDA export forecast and slightly behind the 112% average pace. Census data showed a total of 1.66 million bales of cotton (excluding linters) exported in April, a 3-year high and 37.19% above last year, but a drop of 9.47% from March. The FSA Adjusted World Price for cotton was 8 points lower this week, to 53.76 cents/lb. The weekly Commitment of Traders report showed spec funds adding back another 3,386 contracts to their net short position as of June 3 to 46,605 contracts.
Market Watch
We start next week with a normal schedule, as USDA will release the weekly Export Inspections in the morning on Monday and the Crop Progress report out that afternoon. Monday is also first notice day for June live cattle. The weekly EIA Petroleum Status Report will be released on Wednesday per normal, with CPI data out that morning. On Thursday, PPI data will be out, as well as the weekly Export Sales report and monthly WASDE and Crop Production reports. Friday is the last trade day for June lean hog futures and options as well as expiration day for July cotton options.
Tech Talk: December Corn
December corn has had a better performance than the old crop counterpart recently. Still the resistance has seemed thick. After picking off the stops below the mid-May low of $4.34 ½ on Tuesday, the $4.34 ¼ low held this week. That was also near an uptrend support off the LOC low and May low at $4.36. Stochastics have crossed back to bullish and seem to have a bullish divergence going on. Immediate resistance would be a convergence of the 40-day and 200-day moving averages at $4.48 ¼. Downtrend resistance from April and May is at $4.52, with the 100-day moving average (stopped the last pop) at $4.54 ¼. Beyond that would be a downtrend from Feb and April at $4.60. As stated, there is a lot to chew through. Breaking the $4.34 area suggest a test of the LOC low at $4.28, which is not far.
There is a risk of loss in futures and options trading. Similar risks exist for cash commodity producers. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Copyright 2025 Brugler Marketing & Management. All rights reserved.
Running Scared. Ag Marketing Report 06/09/2025
Friday was one of few positive days for much of the ag commodities. Outside of soybean meal weakness, all of the major ag classes were in the green to round out the week, what seems like a rarity these days. Of note, the Cattle market stood out as there are likely a few shorts running scared in that market as the cash trade has forced futures to rally. We haven’t gotten to that point in the grains, though we have begun to accumulate more shorts in the market, in some cases record. They say scared money is always looking for a place to hide. The grain bears are still emboldened, though the bulls are hoping the weatherman can give them a spook!
Corn held onto some weakness in the July, as bear spreading all week was a man story. July was down 1 ½ cents, with December up 10 ¾ cents. Monday’s Crop Progress data indicated 93% of the US corn crop planted as of June 1, now at the 5-year average. Ratings were pegged at 69% good or excellent, with a 375 score on the Brugler500 index. EIA showed ethanol production up another 49,000 barrels per day to 1.105million bpd in the week of 5/30. Stocks of ethanol saw a build of 159,000 barrels to 24.244 million barrels. Monthly Grain Crushing data showed 425.8 mbu of corn used for ethanol production in April, down 6% from last month, but 0.77% above April 2024. Export Sales data showed 2024/25 corn bookings at 942,276 MT for the week that ended on May 29. That brought the total export commitments to 65.138 MMT, which is 99% of the USDA full-year export forecast, ahead the 5-year average pace for this week. New crop sales were 160,116 MT. Census data tallied 7.78 MMT of corn shipped in April (289.36 mbu), up 6.08% from March and a 21.06% increase from last year. Friday’s CFTC report showed spec funds adding back to their net short in corn futures and options by 53,283 contracts to a net -154,043 contracts by June 3.
The wheat complex posted gains across the three markets, led by Chicago. The SRW market was up 20 ¾ cents, with KC 6 cents higher. MPLS futures were the follower this week up 9 ¾ cents. Crop Progress data from Tuesday a total of 95% of the US spring wheat crop was planted as of 6/1, vs. the 5-year average pace of 90%. Ratings improved 5% to 50% good/excellent, with a Brugler500 index at 340, up 16. Winter wheat ratings were tallied at 52% good/excellent, back up 2%, with the Brugler500 index up 4 points to 336. The weekly Export Sales report tallied US wheat 2024/25 business at net reductions of 49,114 MT in the week of 5/29. Bookings for the 2025/26 crop were at 444,857 MT. Monthly wheat exports totaled 2.198 MMT (80 mbu) during April according to Census data, which was a 4-year high. Commitment of Traders data showed specs trimming 654 contracts from their large net short position in CBT wheat futures and options by 654 contracts as of Tuesday to 100,572 contracts. In KC wheat, they cut back 1,333 contracts from their large net short to 78,028 contracts during the week of 6/3.
Soybeans popped back higher, with July up 15 ½ cents, as November was up 10 ¼ cents. July soybean meal saw a pullback, down 60 cents, as the stagnation continues. Bean oil posted some gains, with July up 61 points. The market gained some support from a President Trump and Chinese President Xi meeting on Thursday and US trade reps meeting on Monday in London. USDA’s Crop Progress report tallied 84% of the US soybean crop planted by 6/1, still ahead of the 5-year average pace. Condition ratings were tallied at 67% good/excellent for the first one of the year, equating to 374 on the Brugler500 index. Fats & Oils data indicated 202.4 mbu of soybeans crushed during April, a drop of 2.11% from last month, but 13.98% above April 2024. Export Sales data showed 2024/25 soybean bookings dropping to 194,345 MT in the week of May 29. That took the accumulated shipped and unshipped sales to 48.65 MMT. That is 97% of USDA’s export projection for the marketing year, 2 percentage points back of the 5-year average pace. New crop continues to be light at just 3,544 MT. Census data indicated a total of 2.18 MMT (81 mbu) of soybeans shipped in April, up 23.17% from last year. Commitment of Traders data showed money managers in soybean futures and options cutting back 28,096 contracts to their net long as of Tuesday, to a net long of 8,601 contracts.
Live cattle were in rally mode this week, up $10.82, trying to catch the red-hot cash market. The cash market saw another round of stronger trade this week, with southern sales mainly at $228-230 (+$7-8) and some at $235. Northern trade was at $240-244 (+$6-7). Feeders also saw strength this week, with August up $11.325. The CME Feeder Cattle Index was back up $6.86 week/week to $306.16. Wholesale boxed beef prices stalled out this week. Choice was down $1.26 (-0.3%) to $365.08, while Select was 8 cents higher to $356.73. Weekly beef production was down 1.8% from the same week last year at 506.3 million lbs this week. Year to date beef production is now down 2.8%, as slaughter is 6.2% lower. Export Sales data indicated beef export bookings at just 8,978 MT during the week that ended on May 29. Actual shipments were tallied at 10,940 MT, the lowest total for the calendar year. Monthly Census data showed 237.2 million lbs of beef shipped in April, which is a 5-year low and down 7.3% from March. Weekly CFTC data showed managed money in live cattle futures and options adding back another 315 contracts to their net long position as of Tuesday to 131,805 contracts. Spec traders added another 1,569 contracts to their new record net long in feeder cattle futures and options to 34,827 contracts by June 3.
Hogs pushed higher this week, up another $2.175 on the week to post contract highs. The CME Lean Hog Index was up another $2.44 this week at $96.57 as of June 3. USDA’s Pork Carcass Cutout shot up another $4.29 on the week (4%) to $111.51/cwt. All primals were reported higher, with the belly leading the charge, up $9.37. Pork production was down 2.3% from the same week a year ago at 508.5 million lbs. Year to date pork production is down 1.8%, as slaughter is 2.1% lower. Weekly Export Sales data indicated 36,373 MT of pork sold in the week ending on May 29. Export Shipments were at 24,077 MT, the lowest in 19 weeks. Pork exports during April totaled 582.9 million lbs according to Census data, a 3-year low for the month and down 9.1% from March. Commitment of Traders data showed specs adding another 7,086 contracts to their large net long position as of 6/3 to a net position of 101,626 contracts.
Cotton futures posted a 56 point rebound this week in the July contract, with December 46 points higher. NASS Crop Progress data showed a total of 66% of the US cotton crop has been planted as of last Sunday, behind the 69% pace from the 5-year average. Initial condition ratings were 49% good/excellent, or 324 on the Brugler500 index. Export Sales data showed a total of 109,785 RB of 2024/25 cotton sold in the week ending on May 29. Shipments pushed to a 3-week high at 316,134 RB. Upland cotton commitments are 11.525 million RB, 111% of the USDA export forecast and slightly behind the 112% average pace. Census data showed a total of 1.66 million bales of cotton (excluding linters) exported in April, a 3-year high and 37.19% above last year, but a drop of 9.47% from March. The FSA Adjusted World Price for cotton was 8 points lower this week, to 53.76 cents/lb. The weekly Commitment of Traders report showed spec funds adding back another 3,386 contracts to their net short position as of June 3 to 46,605 contracts.
Market Watch
We start next week with a normal schedule, as USDA will release the weekly Export Inspections in the morning on Monday and the Crop Progress report out that afternoon. Monday is also first notice day for June live cattle. The weekly EIA Petroleum Status Report will be released on Wednesday per normal, with CPI data out that morning. On Thursday, PPI data will be out, as well as the weekly Export Sales report and monthly WASDE and Crop Production reports. Friday is the last trade day for June lean hog futures and options as well as expiration day for July cotton options.
Tech Talk: December Corn
December corn has had a better performance than the old crop counterpart recently. Still the resistance has seemed thick. After picking off the stops below the mid-May low of $4.34 ½ on Tuesday, the $4.34 ¼ low held this week. That was also near an uptrend support off the LOC low and May low at $4.36. Stochastics have crossed back to bullish and seem to have a bullish divergence going on. Immediate resistance would be a convergence of the 40-day and 200-day moving averages at $4.48 ¼. Downtrend resistance from April and May is at $4.52, with the 100-day moving average (stopped the last pop) at $4.54 ¼. Beyond that would be a downtrend from Feb and April at $4.60. As stated, there is a lot to chew through. Breaking the $4.34 area suggest a test of the LOC low at $4.28, which is not far.
There is a risk of loss in futures and options trading. Similar risks exist for cash commodity producers. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Copyright 2025 Brugler Marketing & Management. All rights reserved.