Softs Report 06/04/2025

COTTON
General Comments: Cotton was a little lower in consolidation trding yesterday and trends are mixed. There are still reports of better weather for planting in Texas and on demand concerns caused by the tariff wars and after USDA reported moderate to poor weekly export sales. However, Gap stores reported strong earnings and said it would greatly increase its use of US Cotton in its clothing. Planting conditions remain good in Texas, but it is still too wet in the Delta and Southeast. Some rain was reported in west Texas last week, and farmers are in the fields. It has turned drier in the Delta and Southeast. Planting progress is now behind the five year average and conditions of the crops should be good.
Overnight News: The USDA average price is now 66.00 ct/lb.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 63.80, 62.10, and 60.80 July, with resistance of 66.80, 67.20 and 67.90 July.

FCOJ
General Comments: Futures were a little higher yesterday and trends are still mixed in the market. A low is trying to be completed. USDA adjusted US and Florida production slightly higher than in production estimates in its recent reports. Production estimates remain well below those from a year ago. The poor production potential for the crops comes from weather but also the greening disease that has caused many Florida producers to lose trees. A tight market and higher prices should remain a feature for futures traders.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed to up. Support is at 261.00, 248.00, and 236.00 July, with resistance at 304.00, 314.00, and 325.00 July.

COFFEE
General Comments: New York and London were lower yesterday, and London once again made new lows for the last few months. Trends are down on the charts. Prices have now been dropping for several weeks and are much more moderate than before as supplies available to the market have ticked up. The Brazil Robusta harvest continues and Indonesia continues to harvest. Vietnam is done with its harvest. The Brazil Arabica harvest is starting and is expected to be less this year. Cooxupe coffee cooperative on Tuesday said farmers had harvested 10.1% of the crop, slightly behind the pace of last year.

Overnight News: The ICO average price is 303.52 ct/lb.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down. Support is at 337.00, 324.00, and 318.00 July, and resistance is at 368.00, 379.00 and 385.00 July. Trends in London are down. Support is at 4290, 4230, and 4170 July, with resistance at 4540, 4610, and 4700 July.

SUGAR
General Comments: Both markets were a little higher yesterday in consolidation trading as ideas of good supplies for the market continue to be heard. London White Sugar has been leading the New York Raw Sugar contracts lower. Ideas of good supplies and less demand continue. China has been a buyer with cheaper prices to help provide some support. There were reports of some scattered showers in center south Brazil and the harvest has been slower but is expected to be faster now amid drier conditions. Good growing conditions are reported in India and Thailand after a fast start to the Monsoon season. Petrobras has cut gasoline prices this week for the first time since 2023 and ethanol production could be affected due to lower prices.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down. Support is at 1670, 1650, and 1620 July and resistance is at 1780, 1850, and 1890 July. Trends in London are mixed to down. Support is at 468.00, 456.00, and 450.00 August, with resistance at 488.00, 490.00, and 499.00 August.

COCOA
General Comments: Both markets closed higher yesterday in consolidation trading despite reports of increased availability of Cocoa to the market. There are still reports of increased flows of Cocoa from Nigeria and reports of increased production potential in other countries outside of West Africa, including Asia and Central America. The market anticipates good demand and less production from Ivory Coast and Ghana. Early pod counts for the 2025/26 main crop suggested there is unlikely to be a significant recovery in production next season. Mid crop counts have not been strong and here have been concerns that current dry conditions will hurt production potential. Trends are mixed to down in London and in New York.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down. Support is at 8940, 8800, and 8300 July, with resistance at 10070, 10410, and 11280 July. Trends in London are mixed to down. Support is at 6140, 6040, and 5910 July, with resistance at 6580, 6980, and 7290 July.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322