I’m sure we’ve all heard the saying that April showers bring May flowers. While April was rather spotty for some, it left quite a large part of the west on the dryer side and brought some moisture to the east. However, no one ever said what happens when we have May showers, as most everything is emerged by that point. A good look at the forecast for the next seven days shows rather large coverage across much of the US corn belt. While some folks in the east may not enjoy the potential for planting delays, those in places such as Nebraska would welcome the moisture and the ability to shut off wells that have been running far too much already for being in the middle of May. So, what do May showers bring? For some areas, an easing of drought and for most, a better start to the growing season. Of course, we must note it is a long time until the crop is made.
Corn continued the trend of weaker weekly closes, as July was down 6 ¼ cents this week, with December slipping 6 ½ cents. Monday’s WASDE data showed old crop stocks down 50 mbu to 1.415 bbu, on an increase to exports. The first new crop stocks projection of the year was tallied at 1.8 billion bushel. Weekly Crop Progress data pegged 62% of the US corn crop planted as of May 11, ahead of the 5-year average. EIA showed ethanol production falling another 27,000 barrels per day to 993,000 bpd in the week of 5/9. Stocks of ethanol were back up 254,000 barrels to 25.445 million barrels. Export Sales data showed 2024/25 corn bookings at 1.677 MMT for the week that ended on May 8, the highest in 20 weeks. That brought the total export commitments to 62.088 MMT, which is 94% of the new USDA full-year export forecast and lagging the 5-year average of 95% for this week. Friday’s CFTC data indicated spec funds flipping to a net short in corn futures and options by a move of 98,869 contracts to a new short of 84,976 contracts by May 13.
The wheat complex found some partially solid ground this week. Chicago saw some positive action, up 3 ¼ cents in the July contract (0.62%). July Kansas City slipped just a penny, thanks to double digit Friday losses. MPLS futures continued to be under pressure, down 20 ¼ cents (-3.41%) lower this week. The annual Hard Red Wheat Tour was this, with the average for this year at 53 bushel per acre, a 4 year high. The monthly WASDE report was not very friendly, with wheat production shown at 1.921 billion bushels. Old crop US stocks were tallied at 841 mbu, a 5 mbu reduction from last month. New crop was pegged at 923 mbu with the large production figure. NASS Crop Progress data indicated a total of 66% of the US spring wheat crop was planted as of 5/11, vs. the 5-year average pace of 59%. Winter wheat ratings were tallied at 53% good/excellent, up 2%, with the Brugler500 index improving 4 points to 338. Export Sales data tallied US wheat 2024/25 business at 58,627 MT in the week of 5/8. Bookings for the 2025/26 crop exploded to 746,155 MT. Commitment of Traders data showed specs adding back to their large net short position in CBT wheat futures and options by 13,161 contracts as of Tuesday to 126,895 contracts. In KC wheat, they were at a record net short of 80,799 contracts, an increase of another 8,559 contracts during the week of May 13.
Soybeans had a choppy week, with July down 1 ¾ cents and November slipping by a penny. July soybean meal was $2.20 lower (-0.75%), with bean oil up 36 points (0.74%) on the week despite limit losses on Thursday. Early week support came as the US/China trade tensions eased last weekend with tariffs cut back. Late week pressure came as rumors surfaced of the EPA looking for an RVO on D4 Biomass diesel at 4.65 billion gallons, below the previously expected 5.25 billion. WASDE data from Monday showed old crop stocks down 25 million bushels to 350 mbu. New crop ending stocks came in well below the average trade estimate at 295 million bushels. USDA’s Crop Progress report tallied 48% of the US soybean crop was planted as of 5/11, well ahead of the 5-year average pace. NOPA data released this week showed a total of 190.226 million bushels of soybeans crushed among members in April, a slight drop of 2.22% from last month but 12.27% above a year ago. Thursday morning’s Export Sales report showed 2024/25 soybean bookings dropping to 282,427 MT in the week of May 9. That took the accumulated shipped and unshipped sales to 48.003 MMT. That is 95% of USDA’s new export projection for the marketing year, 3 percentage points back of the 5-year average pace. Commitment of Traders data tallied specs in soybean futures and options at a net long of 38,407 contracts on Tuesday, an increase of 16,537 contracts.
Live cattle pulled back this week, as June was down $2.45. The cash market was more on the steady side this week, with southern sales mainly at $219-220 and northern trade at $229. Feeders felt weaker on the week, with May down $1.125. That came despite early week strength following USDA suspending feeder imports from Mexico last weekend due to continued spread of the New World Screwworm. The CME Feeder Cattle Index was back up $4.65 week/week to $300.79. Wholesale boxed beef prices were higher this week. Choice was up $6.527 (1.9%) to $352.49, while Select was $11.22 higher (+3.4%) to $342.39. Weekly beef production was back up 1% from last week at 494.3 million lbs this week, which was also 2.5% below the same week last year. Year to date beef production is now down 2.6%, as slaughter is 6.1% lower. Export Sales data showed a total of 14,599 MT of beef sold in the week ending on May 8, a 4-week high. Shipments were at a 3-week low of 13,643 MT. CFTC data showed spec funds in live cattle futures and options adding another 2,256 contracts to their net long position as of Tuesday to 135,594 contracts. Managed money added back to their net long in feeder cattle futures and options by 2,773 contracts to 32,215 contracts by May 13.
Hogs found some strength this week, with June up $2.75. The CME Lean Hog Index was up another 95 cents this week at $91.02 as of May 14. USDA’s Pork Carcass Cutout was up $2.29 this week (2.3%) to $100.12/cwt. Just the loin was reported lower, down $2.08. Pork production was down 1.2% from last week but 0.6% above the same week a year ago at 522.4 million lbs. Year to date pork production is down 1.7%, as slaughter is 2.2% lower. Pork export bookings totaled 24,617 MT in the week ending on May 8, back up from the week prior. Exports were tallied at 26,488 MT, a 3-week high. Friday’s Commitment of Traders data showed specs adding another 10,464 contracts to their net long position as of 5/13 to a net position of 81,086 contracts.
Cotton futures pulled back this week, down 172 points. The Monday Cotton Ginnings report showed a total of 14.075 million RB ginned and total 2024 production at 14.383 million bales. The old crop balance sheet from the World Ag Outlook Board saw the carry out cut by 200,000 bales to 4.8 million bales. New crop stocks are seen at 5.2 million bales. NASS Crop Progress data showed a total of 28% of the US cotton crop has been planted as of last Sunday, now behind the 31% pace from the 5-year average. USDA’s Export Sales report showed a total of 122,192 RB of 2024/25 cotton sold in the week ending on May 8, with 34,232 RB for new crop. Shipments were at a 3-week low at 329,176 RB. The FSA Adjusted World Price for cotton was 91 points lower this week, to 53.90 cents/lb. CFTC Commitment of Traders data showed spec funds adding back another 8,039 contracts from their net short position as of May 13 to 29,088 contracts.
Market Watch
We start next week with the weekly Export Inspections report on Monday morning, with the Crop Progress report released that afternoon. The weekly EIA Petroleum Status Report will be out on Wednesday per normal. Weekly Export Sales data will be out on Thursday morning, with May feeder cattle futures and options expiring at the close. On Friday, June serial grain options expire, with NASS releasing the monthly Cattle on Feed and Cold Storage reports ahead of the three day weekend.
Tech Talk: November Soybeans
November soybeans had a rather eventful week. It started with a Monday rally thanks to the US/China trade talks from last weekend and a bullish USDA data set. That broke through the 61.8% Fib retracement at $10.35 3/4, and possibly more importantly the 200-day moving average (which we haven’t seen consecutive closes above since 2023 and the place where sellers have continued to show up) at $10.33 ¾. We also peaked our head above the 78.6% Fib retracement at $10.53 ½. That lasted all of 3 days and then the government (if the rumors are true) had to come and mess things up with the EPA RVOs. There has been no confirmation on the actual number, but the way the market sold, someone knows something… Still the market pulled back to that 200-day, which did hold on Thursday and Friday. For the bulls, that is the area to watch. The Feb high ($10.75 3/4) is lateral resistance and the seasonal suggest we take that out, with the odds being high in the next couple months. We’ll have to wait a little longer for the confirmation.
There is a risk of loss in futures and options trading. Similar risks exist for cash commodity producers. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Copyright 2025 Brugler Marketing & Management. All rights reserved.
May Showers. Ag Marketing Report 05/19/2025
I’m sure we’ve all heard the saying that April showers bring May flowers. While April was rather spotty for some, it left quite a large part of the west on the dryer side and brought some moisture to the east. However, no one ever said what happens when we have May showers, as most everything is emerged by that point. A good look at the forecast for the next seven days shows rather large coverage across much of the US corn belt. While some folks in the east may not enjoy the potential for planting delays, those in places such as Nebraska would welcome the moisture and the ability to shut off wells that have been running far too much already for being in the middle of May. So, what do May showers bring? For some areas, an easing of drought and for most, a better start to the growing season. Of course, we must note it is a long time until the crop is made.
Corn continued the trend of weaker weekly closes, as July was down 6 ¼ cents this week, with December slipping 6 ½ cents. Monday’s WASDE data showed old crop stocks down 50 mbu to 1.415 bbu, on an increase to exports. The first new crop stocks projection of the year was tallied at 1.8 billion bushel. Weekly Crop Progress data pegged 62% of the US corn crop planted as of May 11, ahead of the 5-year average. EIA showed ethanol production falling another 27,000 barrels per day to 993,000 bpd in the week of 5/9. Stocks of ethanol were back up 254,000 barrels to 25.445 million barrels. Export Sales data showed 2024/25 corn bookings at 1.677 MMT for the week that ended on May 8, the highest in 20 weeks. That brought the total export commitments to 62.088 MMT, which is 94% of the new USDA full-year export forecast and lagging the 5-year average of 95% for this week. Friday’s CFTC data indicated spec funds flipping to a net short in corn futures and options by a move of 98,869 contracts to a new short of 84,976 contracts by May 13.
The wheat complex found some partially solid ground this week. Chicago saw some positive action, up 3 ¼ cents in the July contract (0.62%). July Kansas City slipped just a penny, thanks to double digit Friday losses. MPLS futures continued to be under pressure, down 20 ¼ cents (-3.41%) lower this week. The annual Hard Red Wheat Tour was this, with the average for this year at 53 bushel per acre, a 4 year high. The monthly WASDE report was not very friendly, with wheat production shown at 1.921 billion bushels. Old crop US stocks were tallied at 841 mbu, a 5 mbu reduction from last month. New crop was pegged at 923 mbu with the large production figure. NASS Crop Progress data indicated a total of 66% of the US spring wheat crop was planted as of 5/11, vs. the 5-year average pace of 59%. Winter wheat ratings were tallied at 53% good/excellent, up 2%, with the Brugler500 index improving 4 points to 338. Export Sales data tallied US wheat 2024/25 business at 58,627 MT in the week of 5/8. Bookings for the 2025/26 crop exploded to 746,155 MT. Commitment of Traders data showed specs adding back to their large net short position in CBT wheat futures and options by 13,161 contracts as of Tuesday to 126,895 contracts. In KC wheat, they were at a record net short of 80,799 contracts, an increase of another 8,559 contracts during the week of May 13.
Soybeans had a choppy week, with July down 1 ¾ cents and November slipping by a penny. July soybean meal was $2.20 lower (-0.75%), with bean oil up 36 points (0.74%) on the week despite limit losses on Thursday. Early week support came as the US/China trade tensions eased last weekend with tariffs cut back. Late week pressure came as rumors surfaced of the EPA looking for an RVO on D4 Biomass diesel at 4.65 billion gallons, below the previously expected 5.25 billion. WASDE data from Monday showed old crop stocks down 25 million bushels to 350 mbu. New crop ending stocks came in well below the average trade estimate at 295 million bushels. USDA’s Crop Progress report tallied 48% of the US soybean crop was planted as of 5/11, well ahead of the 5-year average pace. NOPA data released this week showed a total of 190.226 million bushels of soybeans crushed among members in April, a slight drop of 2.22% from last month but 12.27% above a year ago. Thursday morning’s Export Sales report showed 2024/25 soybean bookings dropping to 282,427 MT in the week of May 9. That took the accumulated shipped and unshipped sales to 48.003 MMT. That is 95% of USDA’s new export projection for the marketing year, 3 percentage points back of the 5-year average pace. Commitment of Traders data tallied specs in soybean futures and options at a net long of 38,407 contracts on Tuesday, an increase of 16,537 contracts.
Live cattle pulled back this week, as June was down $2.45. The cash market was more on the steady side this week, with southern sales mainly at $219-220 and northern trade at $229. Feeders felt weaker on the week, with May down $1.125. That came despite early week strength following USDA suspending feeder imports from Mexico last weekend due to continued spread of the New World Screwworm. The CME Feeder Cattle Index was back up $4.65 week/week to $300.79. Wholesale boxed beef prices were higher this week. Choice was up $6.527 (1.9%) to $352.49, while Select was $11.22 higher (+3.4%) to $342.39. Weekly beef production was back up 1% from last week at 494.3 million lbs this week, which was also 2.5% below the same week last year. Year to date beef production is now down 2.6%, as slaughter is 6.1% lower. Export Sales data showed a total of 14,599 MT of beef sold in the week ending on May 8, a 4-week high. Shipments were at a 3-week low of 13,643 MT. CFTC data showed spec funds in live cattle futures and options adding another 2,256 contracts to their net long position as of Tuesday to 135,594 contracts. Managed money added back to their net long in feeder cattle futures and options by 2,773 contracts to 32,215 contracts by May 13.
Hogs found some strength this week, with June up $2.75. The CME Lean Hog Index was up another 95 cents this week at $91.02 as of May 14. USDA’s Pork Carcass Cutout was up $2.29 this week (2.3%) to $100.12/cwt. Just the loin was reported lower, down $2.08. Pork production was down 1.2% from last week but 0.6% above the same week a year ago at 522.4 million lbs. Year to date pork production is down 1.7%, as slaughter is 2.2% lower. Pork export bookings totaled 24,617 MT in the week ending on May 8, back up from the week prior. Exports were tallied at 26,488 MT, a 3-week high. Friday’s Commitment of Traders data showed specs adding another 10,464 contracts to their net long position as of 5/13 to a net position of 81,086 contracts.
Cotton futures pulled back this week, down 172 points. The Monday Cotton Ginnings report showed a total of 14.075 million RB ginned and total 2024 production at 14.383 million bales. The old crop balance sheet from the World Ag Outlook Board saw the carry out cut by 200,000 bales to 4.8 million bales. New crop stocks are seen at 5.2 million bales. NASS Crop Progress data showed a total of 28% of the US cotton crop has been planted as of last Sunday, now behind the 31% pace from the 5-year average. USDA’s Export Sales report showed a total of 122,192 RB of 2024/25 cotton sold in the week ending on May 8, with 34,232 RB for new crop. Shipments were at a 3-week low at 329,176 RB. The FSA Adjusted World Price for cotton was 91 points lower this week, to 53.90 cents/lb. CFTC Commitment of Traders data showed spec funds adding back another 8,039 contracts from their net short position as of May 13 to 29,088 contracts.
Market Watch
We start next week with the weekly Export Inspections report on Monday morning, with the Crop Progress report released that afternoon. The weekly EIA Petroleum Status Report will be out on Wednesday per normal. Weekly Export Sales data will be out on Thursday morning, with May feeder cattle futures and options expiring at the close. On Friday, June serial grain options expire, with NASS releasing the monthly Cattle on Feed and Cold Storage reports ahead of the three day weekend.
Tech Talk: November Soybeans
November soybeans had a rather eventful week. It started with a Monday rally thanks to the US/China trade talks from last weekend and a bullish USDA data set. That broke through the 61.8% Fib retracement at $10.35 3/4, and possibly more importantly the 200-day moving average (which we haven’t seen consecutive closes above since 2023 and the place where sellers have continued to show up) at $10.33 ¾. We also peaked our head above the 78.6% Fib retracement at $10.53 ½. That lasted all of 3 days and then the government (if the rumors are true) had to come and mess things up with the EPA RVOs. There has been no confirmation on the actual number, but the way the market sold, someone knows something… Still the market pulled back to that 200-day, which did hold on Thursday and Friday. For the bulls, that is the area to watch. The Feb high ($10.75 3/4) is lateral resistance and the seasonal suggest we take that out, with the odds being high in the next couple months. We’ll have to wait a little longer for the confirmation.
There is a risk of loss in futures and options trading. Similar risks exist for cash commodity producers. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Copyright 2025 Brugler Marketing & Management. All rights reserved.